Sinclair Noe interview Anthony Nieves, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing PMI Survey.

…..ISM services at 12 month high. ADP private jobs 153k. Dissent between Fed staff economists and policymakers. Midnight rules. Trump Tweets Toyota. There’s an app for that. Gasolinoza flares in Mexico. CES Day 2. Craftsman sold. National Returns Day. Credit bureaus fined. Big corporate defaults on the rise. AI coming for jobs. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-05-2017 DOW – 42 = 19,899 SPX – 1 = 2269 NAS + 10 = 5487 RUT – 16 = 1371 10 Y – .08 = 2.37% OIL + .47 = 54.69 GOLD + 17.10 = 1181.20 The Nasdaq squeaked out a record high close on thanks to Amazon.com, while deep drops in the retail sector weighed on the broader stock market.   The Institute for Supply Management’s index of nonmanufacturing activity was 57.2 in December, unchanged from November and remaining at its highest level since October 2015. A reading over 50 indicates expansion; so, this was a strong report.   The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to near a 43 year-low last week, pointing to further tightening in the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 235,000 for the week ended Dec. 31.   In a separate report, payrolls processor ADP said private employers added 153,000 jobs in December after increasing their payrolls by 215,000 in November.   In a third report, global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas said U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 33,627 jobs from payrolls last ...

…..FOMC minutes show Fed on track for 3 hikes. Mortgage apps slip. Obamacare first order of business. Auto sales record for 2016. Sears closing stores. Amazon the 800-pound gorilla of holiday shopping. Kohl’s, Macy sales dip. J&J halves hip award. Barclays trader pleads guilty to Forex rigging. US big banks on hook for Euro derivatives. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-04-2017   DOW + 60 = 19,942 SPX + 12 = 2270 NAS + 47 = 5477 RUT + 30 = 1387 10 Y un = 2.45% OIL + 1.02 = 54.31 GOLD + 4.80 = 1164.10 What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December meeting; that’s the meeting where the Fed raised interest rates for only the second time in a decade. Almost all Federal Reserve policymakers thought the economy could grow more quickly because of fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration and many were eyeing faster interest rate increases to counteract. Trump’s promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation could boost inflation and might set the stage for a confrontation between a president seeking to boost economic growth and the Fed, which is tasked with keeping the economy from overheating. The minutes showed policymakers might signal an even more aggressive path of rate increases if inflationary pressures rose. At the same time, Fed policymakers “emphasized their considerable uncertainty” about future economic policy changes. The Fed expects Trump’s election might result in slightly faster economic growth over ...

Sinclair Noe interviews Brad Holcomb, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey. The December PMI registered 54.7%, up from 53.2% in November.

…..Strong start for trading in the New Year. Technical and fundamental considerations. ISM manufacturing closes 2016 on high note. Construction spending at multi-year high. 115th Congress first order – let the fox guard the chicken coop and then flip flop. Ford folds in the face of bad optics. Samsung S8 might replace your computer. Space X countdown to Sunday. Fewer new drugs last year. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-03-2017 DOW + 119 = 19,881 SPX + 19 = 2257 NAS + 45 = 5429 RUT + 8 = 1365 10 Y + .01 = 2.45% OIL – 1.23 = 52.49 GOLD + 7.30 = 1159.20 Stock markets all over the world opened 2017 with a bang. An upbeat Chinese manufacturing report helped spark a 1% gain for the Shanghai Composite, and Italy’s MIB (+1.7%) pushed an advance in Europe. On Wall Street we started with a 160 point jump at the open, slowly but surely giving back part of the pop. And everyone is wondering whether the year-end breakout will continue.   If you have your S&P 500 chart open you might want to draw some channel lines over the past year; the bottom boundary would be marked by lows set June 27 following the Brexit vote – to November 4 and the US election; the upper boundary is marked by three distinct drives to highs in April, August, and December. We are currently near that upper boundary; meaning we will need to see a break above 2277 ...

…..A recap of 2016. Highlights and lowlights. Tech wrap. In memoriam. Worst Bankster of the Year Award. The point of no return. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-30-2016 DOW – 57 = 19,762 SPX – 10 = 2238 NAS – 48 = 5383 RUT – 6 = 1357 10 Y – .04 = 2.44% OIL + .15 = 53.92 GOLD – 6.80 = 1151.90 It has been a good year for Wall Street. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq partied like it was 1999 – the three markets all closed at historic highs for the first time in 17 years. The Dow Industrial Average gained 13.4% for the year, its best annual percentage gain since 2013.  The S&P advance is about 10%. The Nasdaq posted an annual gain of 8.5%.   Global markets have fared surprisingly well in a year marked by major political shocks. Britain’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index is up 23% from lows hit immediately after the June 23 Brexit vote to leave the European Union. MSCI’s world index, which tracks shares in 46 countries, has gained 13% since the end of June.   Oil prices posted their biggest yearly percentage gain since 2009, up 45%. The S&P energy sector was a market leader, up 23.7%   The U.S. dollar index remains near 14 year highs. The main trend for the greenback is higher and is likely to continue to be supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve. Of the major central banks, only the Fed is on track to increase ...

…..Russia sanctioned for hacks. Unemployment claims down. Trade deficit up. Sprint’s not-so-big job announcement. SEC in-house courts won’t fly. Alere has problems with Medicare billing. Sears continues a long, slow descent. Toshiba continues a fast, sharp descent. Airpods on backorder. Madrid minus cars. A tipping point for solar. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-29-2016 DOW – 13 = 19,819 SPX – 0.66 = 2249 NAS – 6 = 5432 RUT + 2 = 1363 10 Y – .03 = 2.48% OIL – .29 = 53.77 GOLD + 16.70 = 1159.40   As expected, the Obama administration is fighting back against Russia for its hacking efforts to influence the election. The operation was broad, involving not only hacking the Democratic National Committee but scanning and intruding into state voter databases. The hackers leaked the pilfered e-mails in a bid to damage Clinton’s campaign, according to U.S. intelligence agencies. The administration sanctioned 2 Russian intelligence services, ejecting 35 Russian intelligence operatives from the US. The FBI and Homeland Security Department also released a report with technical evidence intended to prove Russia’s military and civilian intelligence services were behind the hacking to expose some of their most sensitive hacking infrastructure; a more detailed report will be released in 3 weeks, including malware and computer addresses. Members of both parties in Congress have expressed alarm about the campaign hacking and vowed to conduct hearings into Russia’s role.   The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the week before Christmas fell by ...

…..Stocks hit the wall. Holiday spending figures. Pending home sales drop. Russian sanctions possible. Lloyd’s considers moving out of London. Barclays fights. Qualcomm fined. Kate Spade wants to sell Kate Spade. Fines for fake news. Can Amazon Echo testify against you? Minimum wage hikes coming soon. Americans spend more on health care than any other country. Expats increasing. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-28-2016 DOW – 111 = 19,833 SPX – 18 = 2249 NAS – 48 = 5438 RUT – 16 = 1360 10 Y – .05 – 2.51% OIL – .21 = 53.69 GOLD + 4.20 = 1142.50   The Dow Industrial Average is flirting with 20,000 but today it hit a wall. Stocks fell the most in two weeks in light holiday trading. Trading has been thin across the globe during the last week of the year, with volumes in crude oil, equities and currencies all below average. We have 2 trading days left in the year.   A jump in consumer spending in the final stretch of December significantly offset a slow start to the holiday shopping season, and is likely to help many retailers beat sales forecasts. The December spending boost is in contrast to a muted November, when early holiday promotions and expectations among consumers that deals would always be available took a toll.   Spending over the Thanksgiving weekend in November fell 3.5 percent from a year ago despite a strong jump in online sales, according to the National Retail Federation. Brick-and-mortar ...

Breathing down on 20k. Holiday sales up; online leads the way. Why would you go to a mall? Consumer confidence climbs – maybe I should take the credit. Home prices up but the trend is unsustainable. World’s oldest bank on the brink. Toshiba flubs again. Panasonic and Tesla bring manufacturing jobs to Buffalo. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-27-2016 DOW + 11 = 19,945 SPX + 5 = 2268 NAS + 24 = 5487 RUT + 6 = 1377 10 Y + .02 = 2.56% OIL + .63 = 53.65 GOLD + 10.00 = 1139.30   The Dow Jones industrial average marked its seventh straight week of gains on Friday. Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once again flirted with the widely-watched 20,000 level… and once again failed to make it through. The index hit an opening peak of 19,980, just a few points shy of last week’s record highs, but went sideways thereafter, with volume about 50 percent below the 30-day average (typical of the final trading week of the year.) Treasury yields rose the most in almost two weeks. U.S. crude prices were up over 1% and briefly moved above the $54 a barrel level. Gasoline prices are at $2.28 a gallon, national average. That’s four cents a gallon more than a week ago today. Oil markets adopting a wait-and-see approach before the first “OPEC and non-OPEC” output cut deal in 15 years goes into effect. The accord, which kicks in on Jan. 1, is designed to bolster oil prices by lowering production of all ...

Sinclair Noe interview Joe Carlen, author of A Brief History of Entrepreneurship: The Pioneers, Profiteers, and Racketeers Who Shaped Our World