…..Dow record high close. Oil tops $51. Bond bears’ herd mentality. ISM manufacturing up. Construction spending up. Unemployment claims up. Layoffs up. Carrier is chill. Credit Suisse freezes accounts. The Italian referendum explained. No coffee for Schultz. We’re buying cars. 10 gig internet? Yes please. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2016 DOW + 68 = 19,191 SPX – 7 = 2191 NAS – 72 = 5251 RUT – 8 = 1313 10 Y+ .07 = 2.44% OIL + 1.52 = 51.86 GOLD – 1.40 = 1172.60   Another Dow record high close.   Yesterday, OPEC agreed to its first production cut in eight years; that pushed prices over $51 a barrel. But the higher prices might not last. Production cuts early in the year are a normal response to a low-demand season in February and March when Asian refiners typically shut for maintenance. Even without increased supplies from elsewhere, if OPEC and Russia do reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day as pledged, the cuts probably would not be deep enough to shrink a glut that began to build in mid-2014. Meanwhile, higher oil prices and lower production costs are encouraging US shale operators to increase output, and rig count has been rising.   Bonds had a terrible November. Global bonds lost $1.7 trillion of value in November as they suffered through their worst month since at least 1990. The sell-off is continuing on the first day of December, with the US 10-year yield up another 5 basis points ...

…..A November to remember as stocks hit records and bonds bleed. OPEC agrees to production cuts – oil soars. ADP says 216k new jobs. Consumer spending rose, inflation not so much. Beige Book confirms Fed rate hike. Mnuchin and Ross picked for Treasury and Commerce. Carrier keeps half of workers in Indiana. Lucid has big plans for Casa Grande. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-30-2016. DOW + 1 = 19,123 SPX – 5 = 2198 NAS – 56 = 5323 RUT – 5 = 1322 10Y + .07 = 2.37% OIL + 3.76 = 48.99 (8.31%) GOLD – 14.90 = 1174.00   The Dow and the S&P 500 hit intraday highs but could not hold on for the close. For the month, the Dow was up 5.4%, the S&P 500 was up 3.4% and the Nasdaq was up 2.6%. All three indexes hit record highs this month   The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks also hit record highs, up 11%, the best month for small caps since October 2011. US Financial Stocks +14% – best since April 2009. US Energy Stocks +9% – best since October 2015.  FANG Stocks -6.2% – worst since March 2014. “Most Shorted” Stocks +11% – best since September 2010.   US Treasury Bonds -8% – worst since January 2009. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped 54 basis points on the month. Emerging Market Bonds -4.7% – worst since May 2013.   The strong dollar got stronger and remains the cleanest ...

…..3Q GDP strong. Home sales improve. Confidence high. Cyber sales sizzle. Oil prices bet against OPEC. You can’t have Brexit cake and eat it. Allstate-Squaretrade. Zika in Texas. McFly sneakers. Lake Mead is shrinking and a cross-border water-sharing pact might dry up and blow away. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-29-2016   DOW + 23 = 19,121 SPX + 2 = 2204 NAS + 11 = 5379 RUT – 1 = 1328 10 Y – .02 = 2.30% OIL – 1.82 = 45.26 GOLD – 5.40 = 1189.40   The Nasdaq Composite hit a new intraday high at 5403, but the major indices could not close at new highs.   The economy grew at the fastest pace in over two years in the third quarter. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2% annual rate, up from an earlier reading of 2.9%. Consumer spending rose 2.8% in the quarter, stronger than the original estimate of 2.1% and the strongest pace since 2002. Another big contribution to the economy was business investment in structures like offices and factories, which expanded at a 10.1% pace, faster than the initial estimate of a 5.4% clip. Corporate profits soared 6.6% in the third quarter, a much better performance than the 0.6% decline in the second. And after-tax profits were up 7.6% from the second quarter. Exports were marked up slightly, to a 10.1% gain from 10.0%, largely thanks to a surge in soybean exports.   Gross domestic income was up 5.2% in the third ...

…..Black Friday sales dip, except guns. Cyber Monday should be big. OPEC meets Wednesday. Singapore for entrepreneurs. Samsung split? Time for sale? Wells Fargo fights because there is a clause calling for mediation on the bogus accounts they fraudulently opened. Hack the Muni. You did not win the Powerball, so we look at the good news and the bad news in the stock market. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-28-2016 DOW – 54 = 19,097 SPX – 11 = 2201 NAS – 30 = 5368 RUT – 17 = 1329 10 Y – .05 = 2.32% OIL + .84 = 46.90 GOLD + 9.90 = 1194.80 The Dow and the Nasdaq both rose 1.5% last week, while the S&P gained 1.4%. The Russell outpaced them all, jumping 2.3%. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks extended its winning streak to 15-straight sessions, something that hasn’t happened since February 1996 before ending the streak today.   Black Friday sales were down. Brick-and-mortar retail sales fell 5% year-over-year for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday as online spending broke $3 billion for the first time.  Black Friday was a record-breaking day for gun background checks in America. The FBI processed 185,713 background checks for buyers through its National Instant Criminal Background CheckSystem (NICS.) That was nearly 400 more transactions than the bureau processed on Black Friday 2015. More than 122 million – that’s how many people are planning to flock online to score Cyber Monday deals, according to a survey from the National Retail Federation. A huge number and an all-time ...

Sinclair Noe interviewed Steve Pincus, author of The Heart of the Declaration: The Founders’ Case for an Activist Government

…..Three more indices hit records. Fed minutes confirm rate hike. New orders show strong economy. Overtime pay rule nixed. Car sales set to top record. IEA predicts gas demand peak. Amazon pilots strike. Lufthansana pilots strike. Google might pay taxes in Indonesia. Facebook has a censorship tool for China. Aloe vera gel isn’t. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-23-2016.   DOW + 59 = 19,083 SPX + 1 = 2204 NAS – 5 = 5380 RUT + 7 = 1342 10 Y + .04 = 2.36% OIL – .09 = 47.94 GOLD – 25.10 = 1188.00   Three of the four major U.S. stock market benchmarks closed at all-time highs again today; that follows 2 consecutive session where all 4 hit record highs. In the US, stock and bond markets will be closed tomorrow but open for a half-day of trading on Friday.   The Federal Reserve released minutes from the November 2nd FOMC policy meeting. Fed funds futures are already pricing in a 100% chance of a rate hike in December, and the minutes confirm. The minutes did not account for the postelection surge in Treasury yields and inflation expectations, which made a December rate hike all the more likely. The Federal Reserve thinks it will be appropriate to raise interest rates “relatively soon,” which is the same phrase we heard from Fed chair Janet Yellen. And the minutes expressed a fairly aggressive approach that will likely mean more rate hikes in 2017. That pushed bonds lower today and the dollar ...

…..Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 hit record highs again; passing milestones along the way. Trump policy goals; the trend is in place but the details are fuzzy. Existing home sales surge. Japan quakes again. Amazon goes live. VW goes electric. Turkey dips. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-22-2016 DOW + 67 = 19,023 SPX + 4 = 2202 NAS + 17 = 5386 RUT + 12 = 1334 10 Y – .02 = 2.32% OIL – .33 = 47.91 GOLD – 1.90 = 1213.10   Dow 19,000. It is just a number but it does have some impact; it is a number that makes headlines. The DJIA first crossed the 18,000 barrier on Dec. 23, 2014, according to the Dow Jones data team; so it took 483 days to break through 19,000. There were some stumbles along the way. In August 2015, the Dow dropped below 16,000 on concerns about China. The move from 18,000 to 19,000 marked a 5.6% rise. The Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all hit record high closes for the second consecutive session, the first time for that trick since March 1998. And while the market is in an undeniable uptrend, it is not too soon to be cautious. Warren Buffett famously said you should buy when others are fearful, and sell (or at least get cautious) when others are greedy.   Industrial metals are rallying again, posting the biggest three-day gain since May. Copper is climbing for a second day and is headed for ...

…..Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all hit all-time highs. Dollar slips. OPEC wants higher prices. Fischer ready for fiscal stimulus and a rate hike. Dividends drop. Anthem-Cigna deal goes to DOJ. Symantec buys LifeLock. Nokia in a drone world. Alibaba attacks the Cloud. Microsoft builds a quantum supercomputer. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-21-2016.   DOW + 88 = 18,956 SPX + 16 = 2198 NAS + 47 = 5368 10 Y + .01 = 2.34% OIL + 1.87 = 48.23 GOLD + 6.20 = 1214.60 The Dow Industrial, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite all hit record high closes; their third simultaneous all-time closing highs this year. The Russell 2000 index finished at a record of 1,322.20, a gain of 6.56 points, or 0.5%. The index of small stocks outperformed its large-cap counterpart year to date, rising more than 16% since January, compared with 7.6% for the S&P 500.   Last week, blue chips managed to eke out some minimal gains, while the Nasdaq knocked out a solid 1.6% rally. Techs still have a ways to go considering the stock market’s post-Election Day advance has pulled the Dow up 2.9% in total, compared with a 2.5% rise for the Nasdaq.   The U.S. dollar is trading slightly lower this morning following 10 straight days of gains for the currency, the longest winning streak for the greenback in over three years. The dollar has been supported by continued expectations for higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, as well as by the ...

…..Dollar 14 year high. Bonds bombed. Fed will raise rates. ECB will buy whatever is left to buy. OPEC, don’t bet on it. Obama kills offshore drilling. Pawnee is all shook up. Trump team gels. Trump University settles. VW cuts. DraftDuelFanKings. Spidey silk sneakers. Marilyn’s gown. Gone fishin’ with Bob. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-18-2016.   DOW – 35 = 18,867 SPX – 5 = 2181 NAS – 12 = 5321 10 Y + .06 = 2.33% OIL + .27 = 46.25   The dollar climbed to its highest level in almost 14 years. A rising dollar is a problem for some emerging economies that could see potentially destabilizing capital outflows. The stronger dollar could also create challenges for US companies exporting overseas, everything from technology to commodities. The dollar index has been trading above 101.4. That has led to a repricing of assets in bond markets. The 10-year Treasury yield is up almost 50 basis points in the past 2 weeks, the biggest rise in 13 years. Global bond indices posted their biggest two-week loss in 26 years. The selloff has gone fast enough that it’ll probably pause before yields press higher in 2017. Money markets are starting to price in one or more rate hikes next year.   Yesterday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said we could see rate hikes “relatively soon.” This morning, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard said he is “leaning towards” supporting a rate increase at next month’s FOMC meeting and the ...

…..CPI shows inflation. Jobless claims plummet. AZ unemployment dips. Yellen says rate hike relatively soon. The Minneapolis Plan to avoid another bank bailout and break up the big banks (that’s a bonus). Abe in search of a transition team. Tesla-Solar City – done deal. SpaceX satellite plan. Citi Australia goes cashless. JPMorgan’s Chinese bribe. Wells Fargo loses customers. Valeant-Philidor execs arrested. Ford in India. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-17-2016 DOW + 35 = 18,903 SPX + 10 = 2187 NAS + 39 = 5333 10 Y + .05 = 2.28% OIL – .58 = 45.52 GOLD The S&P 500 is close to a record high of 2190. Not today, but close.   The Labor Department reports the Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent last month, the biggest increase in six months. In the 12 months through October, the CPI advanced 1.6 percent. Gasoline prices jumped 7 percent last month and rents increased 0.4 percent; food prices were unchanged.   Underlying inflation, however, remained moderate. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, climbed 0.1 percent last month after a similar gain in September. That slowed the year-on-year increase in the core CPI to 2.1 percent.   The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits last week dropped by 19,000 to 235,000, a 43 year low. Initial claims have been under the key 300,000 threshold for 89 straight weeks. Companies have ramped up hiring over the past five years, and many complain they cannot find enough skilled ...