Markets extended a rally on continued buying by the FIIs with the Nifty clearing the much-awaited 19,800 mark. The Indian VIX continues to gain and is at 11.7. The sudden surge in India VIX provides a warning signal that the up move remains unsustainable and may trigger a sharp reversal in the coming days.

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The sudden surge in India VIX provides warning signal that the up move remains unsustainable and may trigger sharp reversal in the coming days. The Nifty 50 Total Return Inverse Index which track Nifty 50 Index inversely has seen formation of bullish falling wedge and we expect major reversal on move below 19,591.

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The sudden reversal can be attributed to a sharp decline in USDJPY which has slipped below 138 and may trigger major carry trade unwinding in Indian Markets. Crucial support for Nifty is seen at 19385 below which, we expect a sharp reaction towards 19100.

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The India VIX extended losses to the end near the 11 mark with aggressive put writing in the system as the market attempts to form a new base around 19000 in Nifty.

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The outlook for market remains cautious with major trend reversal support seen at 19200 while resistance is seen in the range of 19500-19600.

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The crucial support for Nifty is seen at 19200 below which selling is likely to intensify while 19600 in Nifty future may act as a major hurdle. The key area where the ideal market could top out is when India's VIX hits levels around 9.5.

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Nifty has been struggling to sustain above 19,400 after a rise in India's VIX levels above 11.5. We can expect Nifty to see a short-term correction towards 19,200 before we see a resumption of up move towards 19800.

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Markets extended gains on Monday with the rally restricted mainly to Sensex Top 9 stocks helping Nifty to close above 19,300. The rise in India VIX along with the market move indicates caution at current levels as demand for hedges may prompt for sudden correction in the market.

For Nifty, although a further upside towards 19,786 is not ruled out the possibility of such an event is remote. We expect 19,200 to act as a reversal for the current up move.

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For Nifty, immediate support is seen at 18741 in Nifty Futures which may act as a strong base in near term. The giant cap stocks which so far has been laggers in the current up move may take a driver’s seat from here on for Nifty journey towards 19786.

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Markets remained cautious post the Fed hawkish stance and the Nifty ended on a negative note with the Nifty Bank underperforming. For Nifty, we can expect current rally to extend towards 19194 before we see major profit booking.

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