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The widely tracked index by FII namely Dollex 30 i.e., Sensex in USD terms has seen breach of intermediate low and is followed with major negative crossover in MACD. This move clearly corroborates that current upmove from here on remains unsustainable and markets may see renewed pressure on back of surge in USDINR.
In the past few days, Brent Crude prices has seen steady up move after formation of double bottom and is on a verge of breaching intermediate high for a potential target of USD 103 a bbl. We expect Nifty to sharply react lower by 8-9% on Brent crude crossing above USD 87.5 a bbl mark and may also have severe impact on USDINR which is also geared for testing 87.
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Markets ended with gains of 0.5% yesterday on back sharp jump USDJPY with IT and Metals turning main contributors on Monday. With base metals prices surging almost 2% in yesterday’s trade, we expect this to impact the financial sector negatively. For Nifty, a move below 19700 should be seen as a reversal.
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The crucial support for Nifty is seen at 19,600 on a closing basis below which, we may see selling intensifying towards 19100 and below in a quick span of time. The rising crude prices and base metals prices pose a major threat to Indian markets with Brent Crude already confirming major breakout on a weekly basis.
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Markets reacted to sharp selling from FII in the futures segment with FII selling Rs 8,000 crore and Rs 4,000 crore in the cash segment forcing Nifty to re-test 19,600 with the formation bearish engulfing line on a daily candlestick chart. For Indian markets, key levels to watch would be the USDJPY movement as a fall in USDJPY would have enough potential to force the Nifty below 17,000.
USDJPY is positioned to move towards 130 in the near term while a breakout in Brent Crude prices can stretch rally all the way beyond USD 100. With the slide in the Dollar index, we expect base metals and precious metals to post gains while the financials, technology, services, and consumption sectors may see a significant sell-off in the coming days.
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The Sensex Top 9 stocks Index holds 67% weight within Sensex 30 showing signs of a major downturn with an immediate target of 7% lower. The recent Breakout in Brent Crude prices may act as an important trigger for extended downfall in Indian markets after the Nifty breaches 19600 levels.
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In the short term, crucial support for Nifty is placed at 19,600 and below which, we expect selling pressure to aggravate further with a quick reaction seen at 19,100. The Brent crude prices have managed to confirm a major reversal above USD 82 a bbl with a short-term target seen at USD 100 a bbl.
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Markets for the week settled with gains of 0.9% after Friday’s meltdown in technology stocks obstructed Nifty’s momentum to test psychological mark of 20,000. The weekly chart of Sensex Top-9 stocks Index witnessed negative closing with formation of shooting star appearing near upthrust of rising wedge.
Although, Nifty has attempted to reach near the psychological zone of 20,000 sustained rise in India VIX suggests correction could be swift and sharp with quick targets in Nifty 50 seen at 19,100.
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