By Fintoo
The podcast currently has 282 episodes available.
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Markets ended unchanged on Monday and formed a doji star on the candlestick thus indicating signs of indecisiveness as it moves closer to important trend line support. The low of Doji star is placed at 19601 and should act as an important trigger for the activation of the next round of selling and any move below 19600 should force Nifty to test 19200 in a quick span of time. Adding to it, a bullish island reversal was also seen in USDINR in yesterday’s session which has the potential to trigger a sharp move towards 87. The overall observation suggests markets are on the verge of a major breakdown which has the potential to trigger 10-15% in the very immediate future.
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Markets tend to remain strong as long they hold comfortably above the previous highs, while below the same - turns the recent breakout void. In Nifty terms, we expect an immediate target of 18,200 on breach of 19,265 in Nifty futures.
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An immediate upside projection of India VIX is seen at 14 on a move above 12. For Sensex, crucial levels to be watched would be 67619 on a closing basis as most of the time major tops are formed in the area of earlier peaks and in Nifty terms reversal to be confirmed on a close below 19830. Markets are unlikely to sustain higher levels if India VIX keeps on a steady rise and would be seen as a major sign of a bull trap.
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Markets cooled from day’s high to end on a flat note after broader markets corrected sharply with Midcap and Smallcap Index declining over 3% and India VIX surging above the 11.5 mark. Brent crude too has crossed USD 92 a bbl mark and should be positioned to test USD 107 a bbl in the coming week after the recent breakout.
The Nifty 500 Index has confirmed major reversal with formation of bearish engulfing pattern on daily candlestick and is likely to active next round of selling in the broader markets. The rise in India VIX should be seen as a lead signal of major decline for Indian markets and a move past 14 may eventually force Nifty below 19,000 levels in a quick span of time.
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Currently, Brent crude prices have crossed a crucial hurdle of 90$ and should force short covering to 107$ in next few days. For Nifty 50 , watch for 19432 in the spot market for reopening short positions. The underperformance of Nifty 50 compared to broader markets is a matter of major concern as Nifty 50 derivates are often used to structure short positions before a massive decline.
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Meanwhile, a negative reversal would also tempt many traders to open short positions in the market with a stop loss of 19,529 on a closing basis. The Brent crude prices have also moved in the breakout terrain with immediate upside seen at USD 100 a bbl and are likely to act as a key trigger to forcing Nifty below 18,000.
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The key trigger which may cause a sharp decline in Indian markets is Brent crude crossing the USD 90 a bbl mark after a recent upsurge beyond 38-week highs. overall outlook for the market remains highly cautious as US bond yields especially 2-yr and 10-yr have already shown an inverted curve. Short positions can be added on moves below 65,174 in Sensex.
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The spread of Nifty 50- Nifty 500 index which is a mere difference in values of the index suggests aggressive shorting is taking place in high market cap stocks to create a synthetic hedge in the broader markets. The next decline trigger may come from US markets after USDJPY reaches crucial resistance and most of the time extended decline in US markets has been triggered from a sharp decline in USDJPY.
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The podcast currently has 282 episodes available.
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