First Mondays with PSG Consulting

Quite a bit has been written about the use and misuse—or the potential for good and evil—of AI, particularly as it relates to the 2024 elections. The only limitation to the use of this powerful tool is our imaginations. On Monday, April 8th at noon, Eastern, the First Mondays webinar will feature experts in the use of AI.

Samir Saluja and Darin Klein from Derive One bring decades of private sector experience in the use of AI and other advanced technologies. Using an array of tools, their firm advises clients in a three-dimensional approach—understanding how customers think, feel and decide. They are experts at market research and behavioral analytics and now bring this expertise to the electoral arena, particularly through their work with Innovating for the Public Good: R&D for Democracy.

Also joining the conversation this month is Matt Lackey, who has connected with others to begin Tavern Research. This new effort is grounded in Generative AI and could serve as an important, multifaceted tool for campaigns and organizations—a tool that can help combat information overload and provide customizable access to a common data architecture built on multiple, reputable sources.

Women have made innumerable contributions to this country and its economy. They have made advances and breakthroughs in the fields of science, technology, sports, medicine, the law, art, pharmaceuticals, the Armed Forces, food, conservation and on and on and on. We owe much of our quality of life and global standing to women.

This month also has a “not so happy” quality to it. March reminds us of the increasingly virulent attacks on women — from taking away the right to determine the future of their own and their families’ lives, to attempts at legislating behavior (aside from reproduction). There is a centuries-old, continually ongoing struggle to be paid equally, to be represented equally in medical and other research, to possess equal rights, and to have the opportunities equally afforded to others to achieve the American dream.

Women are NOT a monolith. Nor do they vote as a bloc. There are differences, like marital status, that determine whether or not a woman registers and votes. Race, religiosity, and social and economic status are all examples of factors that must be considered in describing “women voters.”  

One thing they do have in common is their power to change electoral outcomes, even when one group of women votes dramatically differently than another. 

To shed light on “women voters”, we are joined this month by three women pollsters who are considered the best of the best in their profession: Anna Greenberg, Celinda Lake and Molly Murphy. They have been the strategic advisors and pollsters to the most competitive and “impossible-to-win” races in the country.  They will provide us a rich view of how women, with all their differences and similarities, could shape the 2024 operating environment and election outcomes. 

25% of the electorate may be at large — “Double Negative” voters who do not like President Biden and do not like Donald Trump, and a subset of this group won't vote for either, leading to a substantial third-party vote. This potentially game-changing segment of the electorate has not been identified, has not been modeled and has not been targeted precisely with nuanced communications.

But now, we may have a model to change that elusive standing. Listen to learn more about a new, unique model identifying these “Double Negatives.”

The team on this project carries with it the experience of decades in the field of electoral politics, research and targeted messaging. Applying practical knowledge to this pivotal issue are TargetSmart, represented by veteran political strategist Tom Bonier and predictive modeling expert Danny Metcalf; Geoff Garin, President of Hart Research; and Page S. Gardner, Principal of PSG Consulting. 

$18 billion dollars — that is what experts forecast will be spent in 2024 by candidates and political organizations. But in a stunning new book, Reinventing Political Advertising, strategist and consultant Hal Malchow provides a rigorous look at the cost-benefit analysis of political advertising as it is now practiced. He argues that as currently designed and used, paid political advertising generates somewhat meager results. He urges practitioners to pay attention to research that could make ads much more effective. 

The webinar considered some key questions posed by Hal and discussed in his book:  What has gone wrong? What needs fixing? Hal makes the case that the answers to these questions could reshape results in 2024 campaigns.

Aaron Strauss, former Executive Director of the Analyst Institute and current Program Director at OpenLabs, will join us and give his views as one of the key players in Future Forward, the independent effort supporting President Biden with millions in advertising dollars.

Donald Trump's supporters have produced a video saying he was sent by GOD to rescue America from the "heathens" (very broadly defined). How do we understand the appeal of this approach and identify the segment of voters with whom it resonates?

Iowa tells us that Trump's strength with Evangelical voters will help secure his nomination — and possibly — his election. New Hampshire's result, although a smaller margin, provides another example of the rapture Trump evokes among many of his supporters. To understand the strength of these voters in the battleground states, their overwhelming support for Trump, and their ability to rationalize such support is the focus of February's webinar. Joining us will be three of the most knowledgeable experts who have a deep understanding of this segment of voters: Dr. Robert P. Jones, the Rev. Dr. Kelly Brown Douglas, and Katherine Stewart.

To view the webinar and access resource files, please visit PSG Consulting's website.