Episode #371: “I remain confident in the longer term, completely, actually, that this regime is losing,” says Sean Turnell, Australian economist and former advisor to Myanmar’s civilian government, as he analyzes the recent U.S. decision to lift sanctions on several junta-linked cronies, in what his fourth appearance on this platform. While acknowledging widespread concern, he offers a measured, optimistic assessment rooted in his deep knowledge of Myanmar’s economy and U.S. sanctions policy. 

Turnell explains that this recent move is “very targeted to a few individuals and a few enterprises,” and not a broad shift in policy. He rejects the claim that it was prompted by a flattering letter from Min Aung Hlaing to Donald Trump, instead attributing it just to one of the rare successes in Washington lobbying campaigns around sanctions. 

He details how sanctions, managed by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), have been both financially and psychologically effective, especially measures against state-owned banks, which have “choked off” the junta’s ability to conduct foreign exchange and fund its war machine. Turnell expects additional sanctions targeting entities like the Myanmar Economic Bank and possibly even the central bank, though he warns that U.S. staffing shortages may slow progress. 

While acknowledging that the decision carries some unfortunate symbolism that could embolden the junta’s cronies, Turnell stresses that the core sanctions regime remains strong. But he urges relentless advocacy to prevent normalization efforts around the junta’s planned sham election. “We’ve just got to keep going,” he says in conclusion.