FOMO Investing

OpenAI is racing toward a trillion-dollar valuation while burning tens of billions on chips, data centers, and Azure commitments. We break down the new capital structure, Microsoft’s leverage, why Zuck is FOMO-building compute, and whether OpenAI should even want to be a public company. Also: the underrated bottlenecks—power, foundries, CUDA, China—and why this boom feels like 1999 with actual revenue.

Then we jump to biotech to cover the Pfizer and Novo bidding war for Metsera (Pfizer ultimately won with its $8 billion deal).  The bidding for Metesera  drew at least six bidders and may set-off a chain reaction in the GLP-1 space. We speculate on what this deal might mean for Viking (VKTX) and others in the GLP-1 / obesity space.

The AI & investing episode. Brian and Mik talk about whether AI will actually replace white-collar jobs or just transform them, how professionals can stay relevant by becoming AI-powered specialists, and where value might accrue across chips, power, “boring” traditional industries, and healthcare and drug discovery. They also explore whether giants like OpenAI will hoover up SaaS, how constraints in compute and electricity could shape the next decade, and why the biggest AI winners may come from unknown unknowns we can’t yet see. 

In this episode, Brian and Mik launch a new segment called “Dealable”—where they set aside strict analysis and let their imaginations run on mergers, acquisitions, partnerships, and spin-outs that should happen (even if they probably won’t).

The conversation kicks off with Apple’s AI dilemma—is Siri too far behind, and could Apple’s cash hoard finally push them into a big acquisition? Would buying Perplexity or Anthropic give them the AI-native layer their ecosystem needs? And what about the $20B Google search deal that DOJ scrutiny could upend?

From there, they turn to Alphabet/Google, exploring what a DOJ-mandated divestiture could look like. Could Waymo be spun out to unlock value? What happens if Chrome were ever separated from Google Search? And whether DOJ case may require a meaningful remedy from Google (and possibly Apple).

It’s an episode full of hot takes, half-baked speculation, and a few insights that might just age into real deals.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are for entertainment purposes only. This is not investment advice. Please do your own research before making any financial decisions.

(This show was recorded on 31st July 2025)

Brian and Mik catch up on a few investment ideas they have been following

What we cover

• ANSYS × Synopsys: the deal closed; why a stock-and-cash structure gave us yield and long-term exposure, and how we’re thinking about integration risk and the opportunity ahead. (TLdR: We are still long Synosys)

  
  

• Semis & the “foundry question”: Intel sentiment whiplash, a new CEO with a turnaround pedigree, and the reality of competing with TSMC scale. We speculate on Intel's potential outcome(s) and what second-order effects may be for the ecosystem, including TSMC.

  
  

• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX): why a fast-follower with both subcutaneous and oral programs still looks interesting in a market dominated by Novo/Lilly; the real risks (short interest, dilution, timelines) and why patience, position sizing and buying well matters.

  
  

• Process over predictions: how we use updates like these to revisit assumptions without over-trading the noise.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are for entertainment purposes only. This is not investment advice. Please do your own research before making any financial decisions.

In this episode of FOMO Investing, Brian O’Neill and Mikhail Bulchandani do a deep dive into one of Brian’s favorite stocks, TG Therapeutics (TGTX).  Brian outlines his multi-year investment thesis in TGTX, from its setbacks in oncology to its successful commercialization of Briumvi (ublituximab) for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis.

What You’ll Learn:

• TG Therapeutics’ evolution to a successful commercial-stage biotech. 
• Practical investment strategies for investing in biotech companies like TGTX.
• Insights into the multiple sclerosis treatment landscape, and the growing market for anti-CD20 therapies, including Roche's Ocrevus, Novartis’s Kesimpta, and TG’s Briumvi.
• How Briumvi has been able to gain market traction.
• Upcoming catalysts for TG Therapeutics, including the potential for a label update to skip the initial dose, the potential to speed up infusions from 1 hour to 30-minutes, and the development of a subcutaneous formulation of Briumvi.
• A discussion about Bruton’s Tyrosine Kinase inhibitors (BTKi), a new class of disease modifying therapies in clinical trials for the treatment of MS.
• How TG Therapeutics has positioned itself as a compelling acquisition target.
• Brian revisits his February 8, 2024 article on TGTX, written when TG was at $14.32.  Recently shares have traded between $35 and $40.  
• Brian updates his forecast for when TG will achieve a $1 billion net product sales run-rate, and notes that the company today is considerably de-risked with market traction and net positive cash flows.

Links

• Brian’s February 8, 2024 article on TGTX
• The Evolution of Anti‑CD20 Treatment for Multiple Sclerosis: Optimization of Antibody Characteristics and Function
• Progress toward Mitigating Disability Progression in Multiple Sclerosis

In this episode of FOMO Investing, Brian and Mik dive into the volatile world of Carvana, exploring its business model, recent stock performance, and the ongoing debate between short and long theses. Mik shares his personal experience selling cars to Carvana during the pandemic, leading into a discussion about the company's unique approach to the used car market. They analyze Carvana's operational efficiencies, the controversy surrounding related-party transactions, and the potential future of online car sales.

Links Mentioned

• Cliff Sosin,  Yet Another Value Podcast
• Recurve,  Yet Another Value Podcast
• Recurve Rebuttal
• Cliff Sosin, Invest Like The Best
• Hindenburg Short Theses
  
  

For the lucky no. 13 episode of FOMO Investing,  we explore the powerful yet often misunderstood force of "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO) in investing. We unpack the psychology behind why investors often feel compelled to act impulsively and discuss how some legendary investors harness this instinct to their advantage. We explore how to turn the urge to act into a structured process that maximizes your edge without succumbing to panic or peer pressure.

In this episode, we develop our Theory Of The Case (TOTC) on the ANSYS + Synopsys  merger. We cover the potential upside from the deal. Why  ANSYS + Synopsys could be the backbone of Physics AI. The merger arbitrage opportunity and lessons from past trades (hello, Rite Aid 👀)

Key Topics Covered:

• 🧠 What ANSYS and Synopsys actually do and why they matter
• 💻 CAE + EDA: how the merger creates an end-to-end design environment
• 🤖 Physics AI: the untapped potential of generative models trained on physical simulation data
• 📈 Deep dive into the merger economics, risks, and timeline
• 💰 How to think about merger arbitrage as a strategy—when it works and when it burns

Links:
🎧 ANSYS CTO Dr. Prith Banerjee talks about the future of AI in Physics and Simulation on the Neil Ashton Podcast

In this episode of FOMO Investing, we dive into the full story of Checkpoint Therapeutics, a microcap biotech that just entered into an agreement to be acquired by Sun Pharma. Brian walks us through his personal “theory of the case”—from early conviction to final outcome—including investor psychology, capital efficiency, clinical development hurdles, and what the CVRs (Contingent Value Rights) might still deliver post-deal.

We explore the science behind Checkpoint UNLOXCYT™.  How Checkpoint navigated FDA delays, dilution, and an unforgiving cash runway — all leading to an eventual $355 million acquisition.

Whether you're into biotech investing, thesis-driven trades, or just love a good underdog story, this one is packed with lessons on risk, timing, and what it takes to bring a new cancer therapy to market.

💡 Key Topics Covered:

• Why Checkpoint Therapeutics caught Brian’s eye in 2021
• The cancer drug (cosibelimab) that made it all happen
• Lessons in biotech cash burn, dilution, and timing
• How to size positions in high-risk trades
• What the 70¢ CVR could still mean for shareholders
• The growing role of fast followers in immunotherapy
• Emotional anchoring, stubbornness, and scorekeeping as an investor

An update to our Theory of The Case (TOTC) on IonQ ~ mid-January 2025.  

We review Jensen Huang's and Mark Zuckerburg's claims about the timeline for useful quantum computing (being 15+ years out). We also include IonQ management responses, including the CFO's (Thomas Kramer) view. 

We reflect on the current state of play of AI and the potential role for Quantum computing.