FOMO Investing

In this end-of-year episode, Brian and Mik explore the evolution of Bitcoin—from its mysterious beginnings with Satoshi Nakamoto’s 2008 white paper to its current six-figure price. They discuss how Bitcoin’s role has shifted from “electronic cash” to a potential reserve asset, the concept of “digital real estate,” and whether it truly lives up to its promise of decentralization. They also discuss skepticism by prominent figures like Charlie Munger and Jamie Dimon, debate energy usage, and consider Bitcoin’s ongoing risk from governments and regulatory bodies. If you’re curious about how Bitcoin got here, and what the maximalists believe, this conversation is for you.

Disclaimer: The content in this podcast is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research.

In this episode, we unpack the latest developments at Intel following the sudden resignation of CEO Pat Gelsinger. 

In this Theory Of The Trade (TOTT) episode, we recount why Mik initially started investing in Intel when Pat Gelsinger rejoined the company (~ February 2021) and why he is now cutting his exposure to the stock, given the uncertainty overhang after Pat’s departure. 

We explore Intel’s storied past—from the 386/486 “glory days” to missed opportunities in mobile—and dissect whether Intel can reclaim its position as a leading-edge semiconductor manufacturer or if this is the beginning of the end of this legendary American Silicon Valley company.

In this episode of FOMO Investing, we develop our Theory Of The Case (TOTC) on IonQ (IONQ). 

In TOTC episodes, we have an open-ended discussion on an investment that we are beginning to research. We dive into the fundamentals, the opportunity, and ultimately whether we believe there is a good investment thesis.  

IonQ is one of the few pure play quantum compute companies.  IonQ is working on developing and scaling general purpose quantum compute. In this episode we discuss what is quantum compute, potential use cases for quantum compute.   

We explore some parallels between quantum compute and GPU compute and Nvidia ~2009-2011.     We discuss some of IonQ’s promising partnerships, the Quibtek acquisition and some promising new quantum networking products that IonQ is looking to launch.

We recorded this episode on 15th November 2024 when IonQ was breaking through new all-time-highs and we discuss both the opportunities and risks involved in investing in IonQ at the current valuation.   

 (This Jensen Huang talk we reference, to draw out the GPU parallel in the episode is 13 years old and speaks to a vision of GPU Compute at ~40 minutes in)

In this episode of FOMO Investing,  we unpack the outcome of the 2024 elections from a betting market, polling data, and what biases might explain what made them get the odds on the outcome quite wrong.

We touch on topics like the wisdom of crowds, the efficient market hypothesis, and how these new betting markets could hedge traditional financial markets. We discuss whether betting on elections is a legitimate hedging tool or just a gamified gamble. 

We discuss what may have driven poll bias. How analyst predictions for a very tight race may have impacted betting markets.  We also discuss how this led to a disconnect that resulted in betting market odds, which had 75/25 odds in favor of Kamala winning the popular vote.

In this episode of FOMO Investing, we develop our Theory Of The Case (TOTC) on Viking Therapeutics (VKTX). 

In TOTC episodes, we have an open-ended discussion on an investment that we are beginning to research. We dive into the fundamentals, the opportunity, and ultimately whether we believe there is a good investment thesis.  

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) has become a fast follower in the rapidly growing GLP-1/obesity drug market. We discuss the current state of play of VK-2735 research and Phase 2/3 studies.  We discuss the potential addressable market for GLP-1 drugs in the obesity and diabetes markets.  We review why the delivery mechanism may be an important driver in the thesis to invest in VKTX (or its competitors).  We discuss the company's capitalization and how the CEO's stewardship (Brian Lian) may be well-positioned to take Viking to the next stage.

In this episode of FOMO Investing, we kick off Q42024 with a chat about market indices and the pros and cons of index funds.  

We discuss index funds and how Vanguard / Jack Bogle started a trend toward low-cost index funds. We discuss active management as compared with passive index fund investing. We discuss the incentives in fund management that drive asset managers to end up with diversified asset allocations that are closely correlated with indices. We challenge the conventional wisdom of "set it and forget it" indexing and diversified portfolios and highlight the benefits of having a concentrated portfolio (a la Buffet / Munger) when you have high-conviction ideas.

In this episode of FOMO Investing, Brian and Mik discuss the nuances of risk management in investing, the role of position sizing, and the pros and cons of using leverage. They share personal stories and frameworks for understanding risk, explore the balance between diversification and concentration, and provide practical tips on how to approach investments with a thoughtful mindset.  They draw from legendary investors like Charlie Munger/Warren Buffet and Nomad Capital (Nick Sleep).

References:

Full Collection of Nomad Capital Letters (Nick Sleep Letters)
Founders Podcast - Nick Sleep Letters
Acquired Podcast - Charlie Munger

Episode Summary: In this episode of FOMO Investing, Brian and Mik discuss the role of CEOs in determining the success of companies. They explore whether a CEO's leadership matters more than the industry's inherent economics. Drawing parallels with iconic leaders like Steve Jobs, Tim Cook, and Mark Zuckerberg, the discussion highlights how different leadership styles impact innovation, company culture, and strategic decision-making. The conversation also touches on investment strategies and the importance of understanding business fundamentals and leadership quality when evaluating potential investments.

In this episode, Mik and Brian discuss the concept of FOMO investing and how to develop a principled approach to investing. They explore the current state of the market, the valuation of tech stocks, and the significance of Warren Buffett's decision to reduce his exposure to Apple. They also touch on the topics of AI, compute, and the potential opportunities and risks they present. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding one's edge as an investor, recognizing the difference between a great business and a great investment, and being comfortable with the ups and downs of the market.

Takeaways
Develop a principled approach to investing and know yourself as an investor.
Understand the difference between a great business and a great investment.
Recognize the potential opportunities and risks in emerging technologies like AI and compute.
Be comfortable with the ups and downs of the market and avoid chasing what's hot.
Consider your edge as an investor and focus on areas where you have knowledge and interest.

Sound Bites
"Should I cut some of my exposure to the market? Call it maybe a bit of FOMO."