With local elections looming in May, Labour collapsing in the polls, and Westminster rumbling with leadership intrigue, Marc Sidwell asks whether Sir Keir Starmer is heading for a reckoning — and whether figures like Ed Miliband could seize the moment. Meanwhile, Reform UK continues to hover around the 30% mark, the Conservatives search for a bounce under Kemi Badenoch, and Britain’s politics looks increasingly like a multi-party fight.

In this new year forecast, Marc is joined by Joseph Dinnage, Deputy Editor of CapX, to map the fault-lines of the next 12 months — from the battle for the right, to the economic hard choices that no party can dodge, to America’s 250th birthday under Donald Trump and the possibility of a post-Trump succession fight led by JD Vance. If 2025 was the year the centre cracked, 2026 may be the year it fully gives way.

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