A US carrier group is racing toward Iran. Trump’s statements are swinging between threats and vague offers of a nuclear deal. Inside Tehran, unrest is spreading, and the regime’s most powerful security institutions are showing strain. But how much do Western intelligence services really know about what comes next, and how dangerous is this moment?
In this episode of The Fourcast, Paul McNamara talks to David McCloskey, a former CIA analyst who spent years covering Syria, Iraq and Iran from inside the Agency. He explains why Trump is harder to predict than the regimes analysts usually study, how Israel has been able to penetrate Iran’s security apparatus, and what a US strike package would actually look like.