Free to Disagree

National lost about a quarter of its vote and came second to Labour on election night, yet the coalition may yet stay in power thanks to the overhang. Oliver and Damien argue that is hardly a victory, whatever the mood of Christopher Luxon's election-night speech.

That raises the question of whether MMP needs fixing before the next election, and how Germany dealt with the same problem. With Luxon weakened, they debate whether National should replace him now, giving a successor a full term to establish themselves.

Christopher Luxon goes into Saturday’s election as a prime minister few voters ever took to. Oliver and Damien look at why, and whether he would stay leader even if National is returned.

They go on to Damien’s Tāmaki candidates’ debate and why party loyalty runs so deep, then to Berlin, where comments accidentally sent to journalists suggest the likely next mayor is too afraid to name figures linked to organised crime, and what it says about politics across the West. And with this the last episode before the election, they make their predictions for Saturday.

With National polling below 25 per cent just days before the election, is the Luxon government being unfairly punished despite delivering meaningful reforms, or has it failed to tackle the problems that matter most? Oliver and Damien assess the government’s record, from falling crime and the new Planning Act to its failure to address New Zealand’s fiscal challenges, and ask whether Christopher Luxon can overcome his unpopularity to win re-election.

They then debate National’s proposal to limit the right to silence in child homicide cases and what it means for fundamental legal protections. They also examine The New Zealand Initiative’s findings on public servants resisting elected ministers, and what Chris Bishop’s experience with RMA reform reveals about the power of the bureaucracy.

Christopher Luxon is not getting much credit from corporate New Zealand, with this year’s Mood of the Boardroom survey rating him poorly on political management and uniting the country. Oliver and Damien discuss the business community’s dissatisfaction with Luxon and Nicola Willis, along with the survey’s findings on AI adoption and whether businesses are turning their enthusiasm for the technology into real productivity gains.

They then turn to economic reform, from Greece’s fiscal turnaround and Australia’s stagnation to a disagreement over Bill English’s record. They finish by examining rising antisemitism in Australia, what is driving it and whether New Zealand faces the same risks.

Chris Bishop passed the new Planning Act with one working day to spare, and may not be in the next Parliament to see it work. Damien accused him of regulatory capture earlier this year and now says he has achieved more in three years than most politicians manage in a career. The polls take over from there, with Te Pāti Māori on 0.4 per cent while holding several electorates, and National and Labour’s fiscal plans separated by a rounding error. The episode ends on Donald Trump, after a week that included a planned live-streamed execution, a diesel deal with Putin and a suggestion that Ukraine should replace its president.

Three polls landed this week, with National under 30 per cent on the party vote while holding 44 electorate seats, and Opportunity sitting either side of the threshold depending on which poll you read. The question is whether National’s voters have gone tactical or left the party altogether.

From there to diesel, after Donald Trump pressured Europe into releasing its reserves, with New Zealand holding about 28 days of supply and no plan for what happens next. The episode ends on whether New Zealand needs a written constitution, or whether what actually protects property rights is something no document can supply.

The Treasury's pre-election update showed spending up, revenue down and debt rising after three years of a government elected on restraint. Oliver and Damien ask who ends up as finance minister after 7 November, and whether any of them will confront superannuation and interest heading for $44 billion by 2031. They then turn to John Key, who has warned the National Party conference against tactical voting, with a National overhang now a real prospect. They finish the episode on National and Labour's combined share falling to 56 per cent, a historic low, which Oliver's new Quadrant essay traces to the big parties losing their members, their loyalty and their links to the communities they once represented.

Nicky Hager's new book on the Taxpayers' Union has had several of its claims publicly contradicted within days of publication. Oliver and Damien discuss the fallout and what it has already cost the organisation. Next, 51 prominent New Zealanders signed an open letter to every party leader about property rights and freedom of contract, and Oliver explains why several chief executives who agreed with every word would not put their names to it. And finally, they turn to the economics behind the proposed Foodstuffs breakup, and the report the government says backs its case.

National has announced it would split Foodstuffs into separate Pak'nSave and New World chains, in the name of more competition. Oliver and Damien ask whether breaking up a family-owned cooperative is likely to persuade an Aldi or a Lidl to come here, or convince them to stay away for good. Next, Oliver watched every party leader speak at a recent conference, and came away wondering why the campaign is being fought on such small ground. And finally, plans to overhaul the 2028 census have fallen apart after Labour withdrew support, and they ask whether the country still needs one. 

The Greens want to buy 120 supermarkets and a couple of distribution centres for $2.8 billion, which one analysis puts at a saving of $68 a household a year. Oliver and Damien ask what nationalisation would actually deliver, and why New Zealand First is proposing something similar for the BNZ. Next, the AfD took nearly 44 per cent in Saxony-Anhalt, and Oliver explains what is driving German voters away from the political centre. And finally, a Greens MP called English a bastard language in Parliament, and Damien explains why that may be closer to a compliment.