From Fed to Chain

Have you ever thought about what happened when the most conservative money in the world began to flee like crazy?

Today we are going to talk about a topic that many people are reluctant to face: how to protect wealth in war and turmoil. This is not alarmist, but a question that every person with assets should think deeply about.

## Why didn't the buried treasures save them?

Let me tell you a story first. During the Cultural Revolution, there was a collector in Shanghai who saw the situation change and quickly buried all the precious porcelain in his home in the backyard. He thought that it was hard assets anyway, and it was better to bury them than to have the house confiscated.

What was the result? The Red Guards still found it, and the porcelain was broken all over the floor. What’s worse is that this collector was criticized for “hiding feudal cultural relics” and his family was destroyed.

But at the same time, another family made a different choice. The father of this family was an intellectual. Although he was also persecuted, he secretly taught his children mathematics, foreign languages, and philosophy at home. He told his children: "The house can be raided, the money can be confiscated, but no one can take away the knowledge and character in your mind."

Thirty years later, guess what the result was? The first family completely fell into decline, while the descendants of the second family, some became scholars, and some went abroad to recreate wealth.

This is the first insight I want to share with you today: **The highest form of wealth is not gold and real estate, but the inheritance of intangible capital. **

## Do you think gold is a safe haven? History tells you the truth

Many financial advisors will tell you that buying gold and real estate are "hard assets" that can resist inflation and maintain value. But what they don't tell you is that these assets are only "hard" under the framework of a stable rule of law.

When the political system collapses or becomes authoritarian, your "hard assets" may become your "target". Why? Because they are too conspicuous!

During the Cultural Revolution, 250,000 households in Shanghai alone were searched. The Red Guards specifically looked for "four types of elements" who had houses and land. No matter how deep your gold bars are hidden or how strictly you collect the house deeds, you will eventually not escape the search.

This reminds me of a modern example. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022, Western countries directly froze the overseas assets of Russian oligarchs. Billions of dollars of luxury homes, yachts, and artworks turned into waste paper overnight.

Therefore, hard assets are not "hard" in all situations. **The nature of the crisis determines the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. **

## Hong Kong's financial defense war: the government defended the exchange rate, but your stocks still fell in half

In the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong taught us a wonderful lesson.

At that time, international speculators used the "double strike" tactic: shorting the Hong Kong dollar on one side and shorting Hong Kong stocks on the other. Their logic was to force the Hong Kong government to either maintain the exchange rate or the stock market, and neither could be maintained.

How did the Hong Kong government fight back? Directly use 80 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves to raise the overnight lending rate to 280%! Want to short the Hong Kong dollar? Sure, the borrowing cost is so high that you will go bankrupt. At the same time, the government directly entered the market to buy stocks, squeezing out the speculators.

Final result: The Hong Kong dollar was saved and the financial system was stable. Sounds successful, right?

But what about individual investors? The Hang Seng Index still fell by 60%, housing prices were cut in half, and GDP shrank by 5.5%.

你有沒有想過，當全世界最保守的錢開始瘋狂逃竄的時候，到底發生了什麼事？

今天我們來聊一個很多人都不願意面對的話題：如何在戰爭和動盪中保護財富。這不是危言聳聽，而是每個有資產的人都應該深度思考的問題。

## 埋在地下的寶藏，為什麼沒能拯救他們？

讓我先跟你講一個故事。文化大革命期間，上海有一位收藏家，眼看風雲變色，趕緊把家裡的珍貴瓷器全部埋在後院。他想著，反正是硬資產，埋起來總比被抄家好。

結果呢？紅衛兵還是找到了，瓷器碎了一地。更慘的是，這位收藏家因為「藏匿封建文物」被批鬥，家破人亡。

但同一時期，另外一個家族做了不同的選擇。這家的父親是個知識分子，雖然也被迫害，但他偷偷地在家裡教孩子數學、外語、哲學。他告訴孩子們：「房子可以被抄，錢可以被沒收，但你腦子裡的知識和品格，誰也拿不走。」

三十年後，你猜結果如何？第一個家族徹底沒落了，而第二個家族的後代，有的成了學者，有的去了海外，重新創造了財富。

這就是我今天要和你分享的第一個洞察：**財富的最高形式，不是黃金房產，而是無形資本的傳承。**

## 你以為黃金是避風港？歷史告訴你真相

很多理財顧問都會告訴你，買黃金、買房產，這些是「硬資產」，能抗通脹、保值。但他們沒告訴你的是：這些資產只有在法治穩定的框架下才「硬」。

當政治系統崩潰或變得專制的時候，你的「硬資產」可能變成你的「靶子」。為什麼？因為它們太顯眼了！

文革期間，僅上海一地就有二十五萬戶家庭被抄家。紅衛兵專門找那些有房有地的「四類分子」。你的金條藏得再深，房契收得再嚴，最終還是逃不過搜查。

這讓我想到現代的一個例子。2022年俄烏戰爭爆發後，西方國家直接凍結了俄羅斯寡頭在海外的資產。幾百億美元的豪宅、游艇、藝術品，一夜之間變成廢紙。

所以，硬資產並不是在所有情況下都「硬」。**危機的性質，決定了保值策略的有效性。**

## 香港的金融保衛戰：政府守住了匯率，你的股票還是腰斬

1997年亞洲金融危機，香港給我們上了精彩的一課。

當時國際炒家使出「雙重打擊」戰術：一邊做空港元，一邊做空港股。他們的邏輯是，逼迫香港政府要麼保匯率要麼保股市，兩個都保不住。

香港政府怎麼反擊的？直接動用800億美元外匯儲備，把隔夜拆借利率拉到280%！想做空港元？行啊，借錢成本高到你破產。同時政府直接入市買股票，硬生生把炒家給擠爆了。

最終結果：港元保住了，金融體系穩定了。聽起來很成功對吧？

但個人投資者呢？恆生指數還是跌了60%，樓價腰斬，GDP萎縮5.5%。

這就是我要告訴你的第二個洞察：**政府可以守住匯率，但守不住你的房價和股票市值。**系統性的穩定並不等於個人資產的安全。

## 真正的分散投資，不只是換幾個籃子

說到分散投資，大部分人想到的是：股票、債券、房產、黃金，多買幾樣就行了。

但真正的分散投資要複雜得多。你不只要分散資產類別，更要分散：

**地理位置**：不能全部資產都在一個國家，但光有海外資產還不夠，你還要確保在需要的時候能夠使用。文革期間有些家族在海外有資產，但完全無法動用。

**財富形式**：除了金融資產，你還需要人力資本（技能、教育）、社會資本（人脈、關係）、文化資本（價值觀、智慧）。這些往往是最抗打擊的。

**可及性**：不是資產在那裡就行了，而是在危機時刻你能不能快速變現、轉移、使用。

**控制權**：你是資產的所有者，還是僅僅是受益人？在極端情況下，這個區別可能決定生死。

舉個例子，比特幣為什麼在某些圈子裡被稱為「數字黃金」？不只是因為它有稀缺性，更重要的是它的「可攜帶性」和「自主保管性」。你可以把私鑰記在腦子裡，跨越任何邊境，不需要任何第三方的許可。

但同時，它也有技術風險和監管風險。沒有完美的資產，只有相對優化的組合。

## 最重要的一課：什麼時候開始準備？

回到開頭的問題：什麼時候開始準備財富保護？

大部分人的答案是：「等真的有危險了再說。」

但歷史告訴我們一個殘酷的真相：**當你覺得「現在還不是離開的時候」，也許正是你還有選擇的最後時刻。**

二戰期間，有個猶太家族，一半去了葡萄牙，一半留在法國。他們的想法是：「不會那麼糟糕吧，我們在這裡生活了幾代人。」

結果去葡萄牙的活下來了，留在法國的被送進了集中營。

亞洲金融危機之前，有多少人想到要準備外匯對沖？香港的成功防守，很大程度上是因為他們在平時就積累了足夠的外匯儲備。

## 動盪時代的生存智慧

最後，我想分享一個深層的洞察：**動盪才是常態，和平是例外。**

我們習慣了和平年代的思維模式，覺得現在的秩序會永遠持續下去。但如果你拉長歷史的鏡頭看，戰爭、革命、經濟危機才是人類社會的常態。

真正的財富保護，不是為了某個特定的危機做準備，而是建立一種「抗脆弱」的能力。

這種能力包括：

- 保持多元化的選擇權

- 培養快速學習和適應的能力

- 建立可信賴的人際網絡

- 保持對環境變化的敏感度

- 最重要的是，傳承給下一代正確的價值觀和思維方式

記住，在歷史的長河中，能夠跨越動盪、代代傳承的家族，依靠的從來不是某一種特定的資產，而是一種可以應對變化的智慧和品格。

你的財富不僅需要分散在不同的籃子裡，更需要分散在不同的國家、不同的形式，甚至是你自己的頭腦和人脈裡。

因為最終，能夠保護你的，不是你擁有什麼，而是你是誰，以及你能夠成為誰。

Hi, today I want to share some super interesting news with you. Did you know that the US government is actually starting to research letting people use Bitcoin to apply for mortgages?

Sounds crazy, right? But it's true. The US Federal Housing Finance Agency recently started researching this possibility. I think this is worth talking about because it could change a lot of things.

What's this all about?

Think about it - normally when we buy houses, don't we always need to borrow money from banks? Then the house itself becomes collateral, and if you can't pay back the money, the bank takes the house away.

Now some companies are thinking, hey, what if you have Bitcoin? You can use Bitcoin as collateral with us, and we'll lend you cash to buy a house. This way you don't have to sell your Bitcoin and you can still get money to buy a house. Sounds great, right?

But wait, it's not that simple.

Why would anyone want to do this?

Let me give you an example. Say you bought some Bitcoin in 2020, when it might have cost just a few thousand RMB per coin. By now, wow, it's gone up several times! But you don't want to sell it because you think it'll keep going up.

At the same time, you want to buy a house and need a large sum for the down payment. The traditional way would be to sell your Bitcoin, but then you'd miss out on potential future gains.

So you're thinking, can I get money without selling my Bitcoin? Cryptocurrency mortgages solve exactly this problem.

What does this trend mean?

First, this shows that cryptocurrency is really becoming mainstream. Think about it - US government agencies are starting to seriously research this. What does that represent? It means they're no longer treating Bitcoin as some speculative toy, but really considering it as a valuable asset.

Second, this is a sign of traditional finance and new finance merging. These two worlds used to be separate, now they're starting to combine.

But the risks are huge

However, I have to tell you, the risks of this are really significant.

The biggest problem is that Bitcoin's price is just too unstable. Today it might be worth 1 million, tomorrow it could drop to 500,000. If you use 1 million worth of Bitcoin as collateral, borrow 700,000 to buy a house, and then Bitcoin drops to 500,000, the lending company panics.

They might say: "Hey, you need to add money quickly, or we're going to sell your Bitcoin." You'd be in a very passive position then.

Another issue is technical risk. Cryptocurrency operations are relatively complex, and if you mess something up, the money might be lost forever.

Some people are already doing this

Interestingly, while the government is still researching, some companies have already started providing this service. For example, there's a company called Milo, and Figure - they're both in this business.

Reportedly their interest rates are similar to traditional banks, but approval might be faster because blockchain technology can quickly verify your assets.

What impact does this have on ordinary people?

If you have cryptocurrency and you really believe it will rise long-term, this might be a good option. But the prerequisite is that you can handle the volatility risk and have enough money as a buffer.

If you don't have cryptocurrency, this probably won't affect you in the short term. But long-term, this might bring more capital to the real estate market, and housing prices might be affected as a result.

My perspective

I think this trend is very interesting - it reflects a bigger change: we're witnessing a reshuffling of the financial world. Previously only banks could lend you money to buy houses, now all kinds of new financial models are emerging.

But any innovation comes with risks. My advice is, if you're interested in this, make sure you fully understand the risks first. Don't try it blindly just because it sounds cool.

Finally, I want to say that whether it's Bitcoin or traditional currency, the essence of finance is stil

嗨，今天我想跟你分享一個超有意思的消息。你知道嗎？現在美國政府居然開始研究讓人們用比特幣來申請房貸了！

聽起來很瘋狂對吧？但這是真的。美國的住房金融局最近開始研究這個可能性。我覺得這個事情挺值得聊聊的，因為它可能會改變很多事情。

這到底是怎麼回事？

你想想看，平常我們買房子是不是都要跟銀行借錢？然後房子本身就是抵押品，如果你還不起錢，銀行就把房子收走。

現在有些公司在想，誒，那如果你有比特幣呢？你可以把比特幣抵押給我們，我們借現金給你去買房子。這樣你既不用賣掉比特幣，又能拿到錢買房，聽起來很棒對吧？

但是等等，事情沒那麼簡單。

為什麼會有人想要這樣做？

我來舉個例子。假設你在 2020 年買了一些比特幣，那時候可能一顆才幾千塊人民幣。到現在，哇，漲了好幾倍！但是你又不想賣掉，因為你覺得它還會繼續漲。

同時呢，你又想買房子，需要一大筆錢做首付。傳統的方式就是賣掉比特幣，但這樣你就錯過了未來可能的漲幅。

所以你就想，能不能不賣比特幣，又能拿到錢？加密貨幣房貸就是解決這個問題的。

這個趨勢意味著什麼？

首先，這說明加密貨幣真的在變成主流了。你想想，美國政府的機構都開始認真研究這個事情，這代表什麼？代表他們不再把比特幣當作是什麼投機的玩具，而是真的把它當作一種有價值的資產。

其次，這是傳統金融和新金融融合的一個標誌。以前這兩個世界是分開的，現在開始合併了。

但是風險很大

不過我要跟你說，這個事情的風險真的不小。

最大的問題就是比特幣的價格實在太不穩定了。今天可能值 100 萬，明天可能就跌到 50 萬。如果你用 100 萬的比特幣做抵押，借了 70 萬買房，結果比特幣跌到 50 萬，那放貸的公司就慌了。

他們可能會說：「誒，你得趕快補錢，不然我們就要賣掉你的比特幣了。」這時候你就很被動了。

還有一個問題是技術風險。加密貨幣的操作比較複雜，如果你搞錯了什麼，錢可能就永遠找不回來了。

已經有人在做了

有趣的是，雖然政府還在研究，但已經有一些公司開始提供這種服務了。比如說有個叫 Milo 的公司，還有 Figure，他們都在做這個生意。

據說他們的利率跟傳統銀行差不多，但是審批可能更快，因為區塊鏈技術可以很快驗證你的資產。

對我們普通人有什麼影響？

如果你有加密貨幣，而且你真的相信它會長期上漲，那這可能是個不錯的選擇。但前提是你要能承受那個波動風險，而且你要有足夠的錢做緩衝。

如果你沒有加密貨幣，短期內可能對你沒什麼影響。但長期來看，這可能會為房地產市場帶來更多資金，房價可能會因此受到影響。

我的看法

我覺得這個趨勢很有意思，它反映了一個更大的變化：我們正在見證金融世界的重新洗牌。以前只有銀行才能借錢給你買房，現在各種新的金融模式都在出現。

但是呢，任何創新都有風險。我的建議是，如果你對這個感興趣，一定要先充分了解風險，不要因為聽起來很酷就盲目嘗試。

最後我想說，無論是比特幣還是傳統貨幣，金融的本質還是信任和價值交換。只要能建立足夠的信任機制，任何有價值的東西都可能成為金融體系的一部分。

加密貨幣房貸，可能就是我們走向更多元化金融未來的一個重要信號。你覺得呢？

隨著昨天 Pectra 升級完成，我們來重溫 Ethereum 的擴容藍圖：The Surge。在這波擴容浪潮中，有一項關鍵技術正在悄悄改變遊戲規則，那就是 PeerDAS（Data Availability Sampling）。為什麼需要 PeerDAS？Ethereum 正走向以 rollup 為主的多鏈架構，主鏈的任務則是儲存並驗證這些 rollup 上傳的資料。但隨著資料量暴增，傳統「整份下載驗證」的方式已經太慢、太重。PeerDAS 的做法是：每個節點只隨機抽一小部分資料驗證，只要大家抽到的片段都正常，就能「高機率」相信整份資料是可用的。這樣做有什麼好處？1. 輕節點也能參與，降低門檻、提升去中心化；2. rollup 能提交更多資料，主鏈不再成為瓶頸；3. 安全性靠集體抽樣，不再仰賴少數超級節點。與其要求每個人都看完整本書，不如大家各抽幾頁。只要抽到的內容都沒問題，我們就能相信整本書是完整的——這就是 PeerDAS

你知道嗎？過去幾十年，美國國債一直被大家當作是「最安全的投資」，幾乎就像是教科書裡的標準答案。簡單說，如果你不想冒太大風險，把錢借給美國政府，大多數人都覺得穩賺不賠。但這種信任，不是憑空來的，是有數據在背後撐腰的。像是第一點：從 1990 年代到現在，美國的債務雖然已經暴增了七倍，但殖利率卻一路往下掉。這代表市場相信，就算美國不斷舉債，政府還是有辦法控制住通膨，不會讓經濟失控。第二點更明顯：從 2009 年金融海嘯之後，美國股市的表現遠遠超過其他國家。以 MSCI 指數來看，美國這邊的漲幅是其他市場總和的三倍。也就是說，這十幾年來，全球的經濟成長和資金，都往美國集中。不過，這樣穩定的局面，現在看起來可能正在出現裂痕。我們可能正站在一個新的時代分水嶺上。

以太坊有個老問題：交易太佔空間，導致 L2 也跑不快。舉個例子：一筆 ERC20 轉帳，就要 180 字節。以太坊一個區塊最多 16MB，理論最多只能容納約 7400 TPS。這樣的吞吐量，還沒辦法讓 Web3 進入日常生活。💡 解法：Vitalik 的數據壓縮三寶1）零字節壓縮很多交易裡會有一大堆「0000...」這種零字節。與其逐個寫下，不如用「2個字節」來說明「這裡有一長串零」，節省超多空間。2）指針替換地址每次寫完整地址（20字節）太浪費，可以用 4 字節指針代替，像打遊戲時用玩家 ID。但需要額外維護「地址映射表」，會增加鏈的複雜度。3）自定義交易值格式例如 0.25 ETH，直接寫 250,000,000,000,000,000 wei 太冗長。可以用自定義的浮點格式或編碼常見數值，讓數據更緊湊。⚖️ 代價與挑戰指針增加了軟體複雜性。交易透明度降低，區塊鏈瀏覽器、審計工具需要適應。需要改變部分用戶端和開發者習慣。🚀 與以太坊未來的交集這些壓縮技術，配合數據可用性分片、L2 EVM 的優化，能讓以太坊承載數萬 TPS。Web3 變得像手機支付一樣流暢指日可待。

在本期播客中，我們探討了PeerDAS（數據可用性采樣）如何推動以太坊的擴展願景《激增》的實現。隨著數據增長，傳統的驗證方法變得緩慢，而PeerDAS通過允許節點隨機抽樣來驗證數據，顯著降低了參與門檻，提高了去中心化程度。了解這一技術如何幫助以太坊應對數據瓶頸，並確保安全性與效率...