IMF AGI Preparation https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/Scenario Planning for an AGI future Anton korinek Anton Korinek Fellow, Brookings Institute Professor, UVA Former, Johns Hopkins, IMF Frontier of Automation Task complexity of machines increases over time Unbounded Distribution Human task complexity can go up indefinitely, meaning that some people will always be ahead of AGI and ASI Bounded Distribution Humans have a maximum task complexity (Theory of General Relativity) Outlines 3 Scenarios 1. Business as Usual All current trends continue without the frontier of automation continuing 2. 20 Year Baseline AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within about 20 years 3. 5 Year Aggressive AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within 5 years (more likely) Wages vs Output 1. Business as Usual Wages and output continue to grow more or less correlated for the foreseeable future 2. 20 Year Baseline Productivity (output) accelerates, but wages peak by about 10 years and then collapse to zero or near zero 3. 5 Year Aggressive Same, but the parabolic curve is steeper (more likely IMHO) Persistent Jobs Nostalgiac Jobs Human preference for humans (such as politicians and religious positions) Experience Jobs Tour guides, sex workers, performing artists Care Jobs Child care, massage therapy, nurses