Full Signal

Kenny Polcari is chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth, an independent wealth advisor. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss why he thinks the AI cycle is still early, the risk of circular dealmaking, how the Iran conflict runs from oil to stock valuations, and the specific stocks he owns right now.

This episode is sponsored by Harbor Capital Advisors: https://www.harborcapital.com/suite/ai-labs/

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Early innings of AI

2:26 - Circular AI economy

7:23 - $5 trillion ROI question

8:22 - Iran, oil and inflation

14:34 - What clients are worried about

15:34 - September weakness

17:59 - What would break the bull case

18:52 - What pushes yields higher

20:02 - Favorite sectors and names

21:30 - Cybersecurity

22:56 - JPMorgan

26:10 - Microsoft

28:55 - Verizon

30:34 - ASML

31:47 - NVDA

33:28 - Follow Kenny

#podcast #investing #markets #tech #ai #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Bob Elliott is the CEO and chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, where he deploys hedge fund strategies into low-cost ETFs. He also authors the Nonconsensus Substack. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss why AI earnings expectations are detached from macro reality, the gap between $5 trillion of capex and $150 billion of AI revenue, how households are propping up corporate margins, and where he sees value beyond the AI trade.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Market as house of cards

4:57 - Where is the AI productivity?

6:26 - Wall Street's backwards math

8:34 - $5 trillion capex

10:54 - Why earnings still look strong

13:31 - Circular deals

15:32 - AI's real economy problem

19:02 - Rotation out of tech

21:03 - AI capex is 2% of GDP

24:45 - Kalecki equation

26:06 - Chip demand

28:28 - Investing beyond AI

31:59 - TIPS

33:10 - Gold

38:28 - Leverage

40:16 - Unlimited's hedge fund ETFs

#podcast #investing #markets #tech #ai #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Josh Schafer is an investment writer for Barron's, where he writes the Searching for Signals newsletter on Substack. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss the historic run in S&P 500 earnings revisions, Alphabet and Amazon going free cash flow negative, risks to Meta, and a handful of his favorite under-the-radar stock picks.

Subscribe to Josh Schafer's investing newsletter: https://searchingforsignals.substack.com/

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Historic earnings

3:33 - Expectations too high?

6:20 - Alphabet and Amazon burning cash

11:08 - Rotation into hyperscalers

12:00 - Meta looks bearish

15:11 - Picking software stocks

17:00 - Cybersecurity

17:59 - SpaceX supplier stock

20:09 - AI publishing and licensing stock

21:31 - Movie theater comeback stock

26:56 - Searching for Signals

#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Steve Sosnick is the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, where he has spent three decades since the firm's options market-making days. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss the liquidity drain lurking beneath record highs, whether the massive AI capex bet pays off, value stocks crushing growth, his favorite sectors right now, and what the VIX is signaling.

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Timestamps:

0:00 - New highs, new risks

5:26 - Fundamentals vs. exuberance

6:58 - Hyperscalers are back

10:21 - Momentum, FOMO, and technicals

13:10 - ROI on AI capex

17:05 - AI ecosystem trade

19:35 - Value vs. growth stocks

24:06 - Healthcare and industrials

27:57 - VIX isn't a fear gauge

29:27 - Correlation and dispersion

32:36 - Stock picker's market

34:41 - Follow Steve

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Lou Basenese is a veteran market strategist and the founder of The Big Skinny. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss Magnificent 7 free cash flow, why Amazon and Eli Lilly look compelling, under-the-radar biotech stock picks and a tactical trade on oil refiners.

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Mag 7 free cash flow

1:06 - Amazon fundamentals

2:50 - Is Apple too expensive?

4:33 - Biotech stock picks

6:11 - Eli Lilly

8:21 - Big Pharma's acquisition spree

10:36 - Viking Therapeutics

12:36 - GLP-1s go mainstream

17:11 - Nvidia and Google

18:06 - Coya Therapeutics

20:17 - Refiner trade

24:53 - Follow Lou[5:00 PM]

#podcast #investing #tech #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Todd Sohn is the chief ETF strategist at Strategas Asset Management. He joins Phil Rosen to discuss the semiconductor bear market, his three favorite sectors in the market right now, the rise of leveraged products, and comparisons to dot-com bubble.

Today's episode is sponsored by Direxion: https://shorturl.at/EBirr 

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Semi sell off

1:21 - Nobody throwing in the towel

3:01 - Is this time different?

4:14 - Leveraged ETFs

10:20 - Beta vs. volatility

12:10 - Equal weight beating cap weight

13:30 - Low volatility ETFs

16:49 - Why diversification matters again

18:22 - Where we are in AI cycle

20:14 - Trump as a wildcard

22:06 - What stops dip buying?

24:11 - Healthcare

26:19 - Energy

29:02 - Financials

33:19 - Small caps

35:57 - Follow Todd

#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #tech #fed

Anthony Pompliano is the CEO of ProCap Financial, the public company behind the AI personal finance product CFO Silvia. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss the outlook for frontier AI models, Chinese open-source models, bitcoin as the pair trade to abundant intelligence, and running a company with a stock that's down 80%.

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Timestamps:

0:00 - AI fat model thesis

2:34 - US vs. Chinese AI models

5:24 - AI economics and costs

7:17 - DeepSeek and the price war

9:24 - Bitcoin as an AI play

11:38 - Why AI is deflationary

13:11 - Federal Reserve outlook

14:36 - The impossible comeback

20:02 - Specialized vs. general-purpose models

22:27 - CFO Silvia

#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Michael Gayed is a veteran portfolio manager who runs funds including the Free Markets ETF (FMKT), and is the founder of The Lead-Lag Report. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss why policymakers may crash stocks to save bonds, the Japan carry trade, where the real AI bubble is, and why small caps hold the key to what comes next.

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Crash stocks to save bonds

4:34 - Japan carry trade

7:02 - Oil, yen, and Japan risk

12:05 - Fund positioning

14:51 - AI driving unemployment

17:29 - Capex and the AI bubble

19:33 - Small caps 

23:04 - Rate cut before hike

23:52 - Lumber-to-gold ratio

27:40 - Most credible bull case

30:50 - Favorite sectors

33:09 - Debunking Fear-Greed index

35:59 - Semiconductor and memory trade

37:16 - What we'll be wrong about

38:49 - Eli Lilly and obesity drugs

41:44 - Follow Michael

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Sylvia Jablonski is the chief investment officer of Defiance ETFs. She joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss where capital is flowing in the AI trade, whether quantum computing is still too early to invest in, themes in defense investing, and how leveraged ETFs really work.

Today's episode is sponsored by Direxion: https://shorturl.at/EBirr 

Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/subscribe

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Hottest sectors to buy

3:13 - Where capital is leaving

4:51 - AI bubble debate

6:45 - Can earnings beat expectations?

7:45 - The next AI trade

11:08 - Too early for quantum?

16:22 - Defense investing

18:10 - Highest-conviction theme

19:52 - When themes run their course

21:17 - Leveraged ETFs

29:30 - Popping the bubble debate

31:17 - Follow Sylvia

#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Jay Woods is the chief market strategist for Freedom Capital Markets and a CNBC contributor who has spent three decades on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss whether the S&P 500 hits 7,000 or 8,000 first, why price momentum is fading despite blowout earnings, his favorite stocks across biotech and regional banks, and how his strategy for picking winning investments.

Today's episode is sponsored by Direxion: https://shorturl.at/EBirr 

Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/subscribe

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Timestamps:

0:00 - The S&P 500's next leg

0:58 - Great earnings, weak momentum

6:22 - A bubble in expectations

7:13 - Rotation to boring stocks

8:36 - Retire the Mag 7

12:26 - One tech stock to buy

14:23 - Three biotech stock picks

17:16 - How to pick stocks

19:29 - Top-down sector analysis

21:20 - Regional bank ideas

24:55 - Insurance stocks

29:39 - Summer seasonality

32:12 - Are charts just astrology?

34:45 - Selling access to Trump's posts

39:05 - Follow Jay's work

#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed