FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

The Sell America trade returned with a vengeance last week after President Trump threatened eight European countries with fresh tariffs for their stance over Greenland. While his entirely predictable U-turn was greeted positively by equities and bond markets, the dollar has continued to lose ground, why?

The Japanese yen has rallied sharply amid mounting speculation of a rare coordinated intervention from US and Japanese authorities to prop up the yen. Meanwhile, the race to be named the next Fed chair is hotting up, with a surprise candidate now seemingly the front runner.

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2026 is already shaping up to be another eventful one in global financial markets, particularly following a number of high profile geopolitical events in the first two weeks of the year. But what do we expect to be the main focus for investors this year? 

Will the AI boom boost global growth? Or is the bubble ready to burst? And how will the new Fed chair impact the path of US interest rates? We also give our thoughts on the currencies that we think will over and underperform in the coming twelve months.

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The heavily anticipated UK Autumn Budget has come and gone, without causing too much in the way of alarm among market participants. Sterling and gilts actually rallied following the announcement, but what was behind this rather subdued reaction? And what might the budget mean for the UK economy in 2026?

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears almost certain to cut rates again at its December meeting, despite the lack of data releases due to the US government shutdown. We give our thoughts ahead of the meeting, and speculate as to the implications of Kevin Hassett’s potential appointment as the next chair of the FOMC.

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The US government shutdown continues to drag on like a traffic jam in New York at rush hour, with no apparent ending in sight. Macroeconomic reports out of the US have been subsequently scarcer than Wi-Fi in the desert, but could this lack of data impact the tone of Fed Chair Powell’s communications at this week’s FOMC meeting? And what might it mean for the path of US rates in 2026?

In the meantime, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will be meeting on Thursday in an attempt to hash out a trade deal. But, will we see a deal, another delay or a collapse in the negotiations? We also cast an eye on the outlook for the Argentine peso following the strong support for President Milei at the weekend’s midterm elections.

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SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We’re delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Peel Hunt’s Chief Economist Kallum Pickering. Kallum brings with himself well over a decade of experience as an economist in London and is a regular commentator in the financial markets space, having made many appearances down the years on the likes of Bloomberg and CNBC. He also has regular columns in the Telegraph, the Spectator and the Evening Standard. 

This week, we chat about global bond markets, fiscal policy and the current predicament that governments find themselves in. Debt levels are rising, borrowing costs are increasing and ageing populations are putting a stain on the public coffers. But what does this mean for the global economy, and how can authorities address the issue? We also give our thoughts on what to expect at November’s UK Autumn Budget.

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Latest business activity PMIs from Europe showed a mixed picture in the Eurozone and brought fresh concerns over the health of the British economy. Does the latter shift the outlook for the BoE? And what do bond investors think about the Federal Reserve’s latest decision? 

Our analysts also dissect the latest monetary policy decisions in Scandinavia, where both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank joined the Fed in cutting interest rates.

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SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We’re delighted to be joined on this week’s episode by Ebury’s Director of China Initiatives, Isabel Ye Qiu. The unveiling of President Trump’s tariffs has wreaked havoc with supply chains globally, particularly in China. How are businesses reacting? Can China keep its advantage over the rest of the region and how can Ebury assist in the current environment. Isabel tells us all!

In markets, the dollar sank following the release of another soft US payrolls report. What does the data tell us about the state of the world’s largest economy? And how will the Fed respond at its upcoming meeting next week?

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish surprise at the annual get together of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week. Has this effectively guaranteed a September rate cut from the FOMC? And what do fears over Fed independence mean for the US dollar?

Our analysts also dissect the latest encouraging business activity PMI figures out of the Euro Area, and break down the implications of last week’s worrisome UK inflation figures for both the pound and Bank of England interest rates.

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The EU has finally reached a trade deal with the US! But is this a bad deal for the European economy? How have markets reacted to the news? And what could this mean for ECB rates? We also discuss another batch of quite remarkable economic figures out of the US - could this delay the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts? And we again scratch our heads and try to figure out what’s going on with the pound, which continues to underperform most of its major peers.

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FX Talk has finally caught up with the times! After nearly five years of hiding behind microphones, honing our radio voices and bringing you audio-only episodes, we’re finally making the leap into the exciting world of YouTube. Brace for some questionable outfit selections, a few bad hair days, and an inevitable stray coffee spill or two.

In this week’s episode, we unpack whether the recent “sell America” trade is a thing of the past, attempt to unpack the implications of President Trump’s tariffs deadline and try to figure out what’s next for the pound as markets bet on more Labour tax hikes in the autumn. Our analysts also say whether they would buy, sell or hold the Australian dollar, which last week soared following the RBA’s unexpected interest rate hold.

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