FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

2025 looks set to be another eventful year in financial markets. Focus among market participants will be largely on news out of the incoming Trump administration, particularly details surrounding the Republicans tariff proposals. The world’s major central banks will continue to lower interest rates, as inflation globally gradually returns back to target levels, while growing downside risks to growth could trigger a mild global slowdown.

But, what do our analysts see as the main focal point for investors this year? How could the global economy perform, and which currencies do we think will under- and outperform in 2025? Listen to this week’s FX Talk episode to find out!

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2024 has been another highly eventful year in financial markets. Political developments have dominated the headlines following the collapse of governments in Germany and France, and election wins for Donald Trump and Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Central banks globally have continued to lower policy rates and we’ve seen another outperformance in the US economy relative to its developed peers. This has boosted the dollar to near the summit of the year-to-date FX performance tracker. 

Our analysts give their thoughts on the main developments in markets this year, while also discussing the December policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England.

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The main theme in currency markets since the US election has continued to be broad dollar strength. The greenback has rallied against most major and emerging market currencies in the past month, as investors brace for higher US inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and hefty tariffs under the second Trump administration. 

The big underperformer in that time has been the euro, which continues to languish near two-year lows. Renewed political uncertainty in France further clouds the outlook for the common currency, following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government. But, what does this political wrangling mean for the European Central Bank?

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Donald Trump has once again outperformed the polls and romped home to a comfortable victory in the US presidential election. Markets were bracing for a knife-edge vote but, in reality, it was anything but, with Trump set to win in all seven battleground states once the final results are confirmed. 

The US dollar soared across the board, posting its largest one-day rally since the Brexit vote in 2016. But, what does the election mean for the US and global economies? And what do our analysts make of the reaction thus far in the FX market? Listen to our US election special to find out more!

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November’s US presidential election is shaping up to be a highly important risk event for financial markets. Former president Trump has opened up a narrow lead in the latest opinion surveys, although most prediction models suggest that the outcome of the vote is far from set in stone. 

But what could the result of the election mean for US domestic and foreign policy? How important could the composition of Congress be in the election? And what would both a Trump or Harris presidency mean for the US dollar and emerging market currencies? Our analysts give their thoughts on these questions and more in this US election special.

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The dollar has roared higher against most currencies since our last episode amid a confluence of supportive factors. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have fuelled safe-haven flows, while triggering a move higher in oil prices. US macroeconomic news has also taken a turn for the better, with last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report smashing past even the most optimistic of forecasts. 

In this week’s episode, we discuss the recent rally in the greenback, the FX implications for the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the fallout from some surprisingly dovish comments from governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.

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The Federal Reserve surprised markets last week, delivering a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut. Yet, the bank’s famous ‘dot plot’ of interest rate projections was moderately more hawkish than expected, which limited the downside in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of England held rates steady, emphasising again that additional cuts are likely to be gradual. This has helped propel the pound to its strongest position since the Brexit vote in trade-weighted terms.

The euro has lagged behind its UK counterpart, particularly following the collapse in this week’s Euro Area PMI figures. Does this point to another period of stagnation ahead, and could the data force the ECB to deliver back-to-back cuts? Our analysts give their thoughts in this week’s FX Talk episode.

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The dollar has had a wretched summer thus far, as investors fret over the possibility of a US recession amid signs of a cooling in the country’s labour market. In this week’s FX Talk episode, our analysts outline whether these economic slowdown concerns are overdone, or indeed justified. 

They also look ahead to a highly important period of trading in financial markets. This includes breaking down the possible implications of the August nonfarm payrolls report on Federal Reserve interest rates, while discussing the potential impact of the upcoming Harris-Trump televised debate on currency markets.

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The Bank of England slashed its policy rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2020 on Thursday in a narrow 5-4 vote. While this was not fully priced in by markets, the bank’s statement struck a cautious note on future cuts, warning that rates would not be lowered too much or too quickly. This partly allowed GBP to hold its own following the decision.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, but chair Powell firmly hinted at a cut at the next meeting in September, which now appears set in stone. The Bank of Japan also hiked interest rates this week, but what does this mean for the global FX carry trade?

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We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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The last few weeks have been action packed in financial markets. Political news has been front and centre following elections in the UK and France, and the shocking assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend. While the dollar received a modest boost on the growing likelihood of a Trump election win, the greenback is trading lower on most currencies globally so far this month following the miss in the June US inflation report.

But is a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve now set in stone? And what could a Trump election victory mean for markets? We answer these questions, and provide our thoughts on the stellar performance in the pound, which remains the best performing major currency in the world in 2024.

We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  

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