GeoPod: The Geopolitics Podcast by Tenjin Consulting

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer talks to Georgina Downer about his recent trip to Gibraltar, a British overseas territory at the tip of Spain. Fish and chips at the tip of the Iberian Peninsula, monkeys, e-gaming and car insurance, make this strategically important territory a fascinating place to visit. 

Boris Johnson continues to battle it out with EU President Ursula von der Leyen to finalise the Brexit deal, but the talks on fisheries continue to flounder... 

The virtual Conservative Party Conference turned out to be a bit of a damp squib, but the Tory leader's speech proved he still has his mojo, despite concerns Covid might have robbed him of his trademark ebullience.

On 4 October New Caledonians voted against independence from France in the second of three referenda on the issue. While the status quo prevails for now, what happens over the next few years in this nickel-rich French overseas territory will have great significance for geopolitics. Watch this space. 

The October surprise in the US Presidential election campaign delivered in spades. Donald Trump was diagnosed with Covid-19 but, while he has thankfully mostly recovered from the deadly virus, his polls haven't fared as well. US politics is viciously partisan. We expect a Biden win on 3 November but, if the result is close, expect a bumpy transition period between the two Administrations. 

The Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue aka the Quad is the minilateral du jour. Comprised of Australia, India, Japan and the US, the four foreign ministers met in Tokyo on 6 October to discuss, you guessed it, China. The Quad didn't issue a joint statement but each minister made clear their commitment to cooperation in these difficult times. China's Global Times was less than amused. 

Finally, Australia's Treasurer Josh Frydenberg delivered a whopping spending bill in the delayed budget on 6 October. While Australia is up for $1 trillion in government debt by 2024, it is in a better economic position than almost anywhere else in the world. Lucky interest rates are low... for now. 

This week Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the trading of insults that was the Trump-Biden debate. Not sure who won but the moderator Chris Wallace came a clear third.

We talk Covid-lockdowns in the UK and vaccine geopolitics. Will Alexander get the Russian vaccine Sputnik V on Amazon?

We discuss the United Nations and the future of multilateralism - in sum: it's depressing.

We talk Malaysian politics. Will Anwar Ibrahim finally get a shot at leading his country?

We analyse the EU's response to developments in Belarus, including how Cyprus is single-handedly stymying the EU's attempts to place sanctions on Belarus' dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

And a final treat. Georgina reviews The Comey Rule, featuring a certain Aussie diplomat caught up in the US Deep State.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer talk to the Hudson Institute's Dr John Lee about China. 

John is one of Australia's foremost experts on the Chinese political economy and strategic and economic affairs of the Indo-Pacific.

In this Deep Dive into China, we discuss with John China’s diplomatic strategy and its evolution from "hide your strength, bide your time" to emphasising China’s strengths and concealing its weaknesses.

We also discuss Australia’s approach to China, while John explains the reasons behind its evolution since 2015: a response to China’s overt meddling in Australia.

We explore with John how Australia can deal with China’s economic and political sanctions to find a new normal in the relationship which is at the very least, stable and manageable for both sides.

John gives us his take on the different approaches of the Obama and Trump Administrations when it comes to China and how the Trump Administration, which is more tolerant of risk and disruption, has given Australia more options.

We discuss the impact of Australia’s call earlier this year for an independent inquiry into origins of Covid-19 and the backlash from China. We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on China's soft power, particularly in its handling of the pandemic vis a vis Western liberal democracies. 

Finally, we discuss what a Biden Administration will be like on China. John argues that while the rhetoric might be different, the US' actions are likely to be largely the same.

It you'd like to learn more about Tenjin Consulting, you can find us at https://tenjinconsulting.com.au/

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the Afghan peace talks in Doha between the Afghan Government and the Taliban. If successful, these peace negotiations could bring an end to the near two-decade-old conflict in Afghanistan. Questions remain how the two sides can resolve their very divergent visions for Afghanistan though.

We discuss the much-overlooked Trump foreign policy successes, particularly in the Middle East and Israel. The recent agreements struck by Israel with the UAE and Bahrain are changing the geopolitics of the Middle East forever.

The UK and the EU are in the final stages of their negotiations for a post-Brexit relationship but both sides are engaging in brinkmanship. We discuss the prospects for a deal and the potential for the UK Government to break international law in order to keep the United Kingdom "united". 

Covid-19 presents serious challenges for Australia's federal system. We discuss the divergence between the state and federal governments' responses to the pandemic and the growing economic crisis that awaits.

Finally, China-Australia relations are going from bad to worse. With the departure of two Australian journalists from China last week, it's hard to see how relations can improve under a Xi Jinping leadership in China. The EU-China virtual summit will be held on 14 September. Watch out for China's reaction to the EU's expected criticism of the situation in Hong Kong, human rights issues and 5G concerns. 

GeoPod is a weekly geopolitics podcast hosted by Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer. To find out more about Tenjin Consulting please visit our website https://tenjinconsulting.com.au/

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer talk about the UK Government's decision to appoint former Australian PM Tony Abbott to the UK Board of Trade and what this means for the UK's post-Brexit trade agenda.

We discuss the growing prospects of a no-deal Brexit, with negotiations on state aid and fishing rights at a stalemate and the time remaining to secure a deal fast running out.

We ask whether the US presidential debates starting on the 29th September will give Donald Trump the boost he needs to secure his re-election on November 3?

We analyse the impact of the recent visits by China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Chinese Communist Party Politburo Member Yang Jiechi to Europe and question whether this was a  charm offensive gone wrong?

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga looks all but certain to become the next Prime Minister of Japan so we discuss what a Suga prime ministership will mean for Australia and the region.

Finally, it's only September but 2020 has proved to be Iran's annus horribilus. We talk about what's happened and what this all means for next year's presidential election.

If you want to read more about Tenjin Consulting please go to our website: https://tenjinconsulting.com.au/

We would love to hear your feedback on GeoPod. Please email us at [email protected] and let us know your thoughts.