Geopolitical Horizons

In this podcast we preview the forthcoming annual geopolity report, Strategic Estimate 2024

Across Syria and the Middle East scenes of jubilation are beaming across the world as people celebrate the fall of the long-term dictator Bshar al-Assad. What couldn’t be achieved in 13 years, has now happened in just two weeks. Bashar al-Assad took a flight and fled as rebel forces reached Damascus. The end of the tyrannical rule of the al-Assad dynasty now opens a new chapter in the strategic country.

On 19 November the Ukraine war passed 1,000 days and the Ukrainian position is looking as precarious as ever. Since the U.S. presidential election, there has been significant speculation about what Donald Trump's victory means for the war in Ukraine. Trump's campaign pledge to end the war quickly, combined with his veiled threats of suspending US financial and military aid for Ukraine to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow, have raised questions about whether the conflict could end in 2025. In Just over two months, the Ukraine war will be 3 years old, and it seems now the beginning of the end is upon us. 

Things are hotting up in the Middle East with Israel about to imminently launch a strike on Iran due to its missile strikes on Israeli targets. Talk of a major escalation are now reaching fever pitch with WW3 now considered a likely outcome. Iran and Israel have been enemies for decades and now their enmity has spilled out into public view with devastating consequences. Are we really on the brink? 

October 7th, 2023, is considered the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. The Israeli response to October 7th has seen much of the world turn against it with the country taken to the International Criminal Court (ICC) over a likely genocide. In this podcast we look at what drove groups from Gaza to launch the assault, the Israeli response and where things stand after 12 months.

Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and dozens of drones toward numerous Israeli military targets in August after Israel's assassination of Faud Shukr, a Hezbollah commander and Hamas political leader, Ismail Hanaya. With the US ceasefire proposal stalling and Israel’s assassination strategy expanding, it seems events are spiralling out of control and a region wide war is inching closer. In this po

Just 6 months ago Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League secured a fourth consecutive term in office, but now the ruling party faces its biggest challenge yet as hundreds and thousands have taken to the streets in protest against the quota system that reserves government jobs for regime supporters. The regime has responded in brutal fashion, cutting the internet and instituting a curfew. Bangladesh has for long been touted as a rising tiger economy, but the masses are struggling to make ends meet. Is this the beginning of the end of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League? 

In the last week social media blew up with news regarding the unwritten petrodollar deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, which has been the bedrock of the dollar's dominance, coming to an end. The demise of the dollar has been a regular feature of discussion in geopolitics in the last decade. On the one hand we have China and Russia calling for alternatives and on the other hand you have US commentators questioning the dollar's continued dominance. What does this mean for the US as a global power?  Will this be the end of the American Empire?

In this podcast we cover the questions you had for us at the geopolity. From the Gaza war to the war in Ukraine, as well as the UK elections and who the deep state are in the US. 

In a recent report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, they concluded the bedrocks of democracy are under threat across the globe. They found democracy is in decline around the world, including Europe, where it was born. The report comes alongside a long line of similar reports, research and analysis that show democracy is in retreat. Democracy was for long presented as the nirvana, the ultimate form of government, the west invaded nations to export democracy, but today its own people seem to be losing confidence in this mediaeval idea. How has it all gone so horribly wrong?