Geopolitical Horizons

Nigeria goes to the polls on the 25th February 2023 to elect the President, Vice President, Senate and House representatives. The West African nation has for long been seen as a developing nation which led Goldman Sachs to label the African nation as one of the MINT nations in 2014 who along with Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey have the potential in the long term to move up the economic ladder and become developed nations due to their latent potential. 

Pakistan faces a perfect storm as numerous crises have all converged at the same time. From spiralling inflation to the national debt, Pakistan is fast approaching a national meltdown. Pakistan's rulers are busy trying to show the IMF they are worthy of a bailout as her usual lenders in the Gulf as well as China have had enough bailing out the South Asian nation. Is Pakistan about to become a failed state?

Recently there was a standoff on the Kosovo-Serbia border. This was after Kosovo ordered drivers to surrender their Serbian-issued licence plates and replace them with Kosovo plates. Serbs living in northern Kosovo started erecting barricades and Kosovo residents confronted them. A traffic jam ensued, and so did a small shootout. The shooting has now died down but the threats have continued. A shootout over licence plates may seem excessive, but this is the Balkans, the region where a shootout led to WW1 and where today many ethnicities live in relatively small areas where the political borders don’t match the ethnic borders.

Adnan Khan sits down with Petret Salmani who is from the Balkans to make sense of the tensions as well as the broader region

The French emerged at the centre of Europe becoming the first nation to embrace liberal values on the continent. In time France become a global power establishing colonies and spreading French culture and values. But the French have struggled after two world wars with Germany to maintain a leading position in the world with many questioning the future of France as a power in the world. 

As 2023 fast approaches Geopolity looks at some of the key issues that are likely to take place as well as some of the major events that will shape the year.

Yusuf Chaudhry previews the forthcoming annual geopolity report, Strategic Estimate 2023.

Pakistan’s turbulent politics recently saw former Prime Minister Imran Khan survive an assassination attempt. Khan is trying to force elections after being ousted in a vote of no confidence and after falling out with the nation's army chief. Pakistan has always been an enigma in South Asia, always teetering on the verge of collapse as its politics seesaws violently. With such an instable political landscape how does anyone make sense of the recent events and the country as a whole. 

The United States began as 13 rebellious colonies on the Eastern edge of the North American continent and in time it would emerge the global superpower. Despite establishing a global order after WW2 and emerging victorious in the Cold War in the 21st century the US faces numerous challenges in maintaining its position at the top of the premier league of nations. 

At least 35 people have been killed in the worst unrest in Iran for years. Protests have spread throughout the country after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was arrested by Iran's morality police for allegedly breaking headscarf rules. Masha Amini eventually died whilst in police custody. Her death resulted in a series of large-scale protests across the country and garnered international attention. The Clerical regime has been in power for four decades and has constantly faced uprisings as it tried to maintain a grip on power. Are we seeing the end of the clerical regime, or will this just be another footnote in Iran's long history? 

Dr Muhamed Khan from the Rasanah international institute for Iranian studies, think tank joins us on the geopolitical horizons podcast 

For a long time, Germany was able to outsource its security to the US. This allowed Germany to pursue economic and industrial development, not needing to invest in a large defence industry. With the fall of the Berlin wall unified Germany found a reliable and stable supply of energy from Russia and over the decades Germany became reliant on Russian gas and oil. Whilst this three-way marriage worked for Germany the invasion of Ukraine by Russia now means the Germans have to decide which partner matters more. The partner that provides security and stability or the partner that kept her warm during Germany's Cold winters. Germany’s post war evolution now stands at a strategic dilemma.