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Executive Summary:
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated as President Trump deployed a U.S. Navy strike group, including an aircraft carrier, toward Iran amid renewed threats linked to Tehran’s nuclear program and brutal crackdown on protesters that has killed thousands since December 2025, driving oil prices higher with WTI settling above $60 per barrel over the weekend despite earlier bearish inventory data, as markets priced in potential supply disruptions from OPEC’s fourth-largest producer whose exports flow heavily to China via the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. control over Venezuela’s oil exports has intercepted cargoes previously dedicated to servicing $10-15 billion in oil-backed debt to China, risking a restructuring showdown that could subordinate Beijing’s claims, complicate global debt workouts under frameworks like the Common Framework, and hinder Venezuela’s post-default recovery while the U.S. pursues quick fixes with companies like Chevron to revive output through infrastructure repairs and naphtha shipments under a $2 billion framework allowing limited sales.
Global energy markets face shifting dynamics as Europe anticipates record LNG imports exceeding 185 billion cubic meters in 2026 to replace phased-out Russian supplies and replenish storage, China advances yuan-denominated LNG futures to challenge dollar benchmarks and hedge volatility, while U.S. natural gas prices surged dramatically on extreme winter weather forecasts boosting heating demand, and broader trends show rising gas demand, AI-driven power needs straining grids, and efforts to diversify supplies amid sanctions on Russian and Iranian shadow fleets.
See the full stories below—plus paid subscribers get our take, detailed analysis and predictions
WHY THIS MATTERS NOW
President Trump’s deployment of a U.S. Navy carrier strike group toward Iran, combined with fresh sanctions on Tehran’s shadow fleet amid its crackdown that has killed thousands since December 2025, shifts control over roughly 1-2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, primarily to China, and drives sustained upward pressure on global oil prices, forcing importers and refiners to reprice risk and reallocate capital over the next 3-6 months. A strike window of Saturday into Sunday seems reasonable. Trump seems to time his Iran strikes when the oil and gas markets are closed.
Market Snapshot as of publication time noted above (not to be relied on for trading purposes):
Detailed News Summary:
US, Kazakhstan energy ministries discuss cooperation
https://boereport.com/2026/01/23/us-kazakhstan-energy-ministries-discuss-cooperation/
Kazakhstan’s energy ministry engaged in discussions with the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. embassy to enhance cooperation in the oil and gas sector, focusing on Kazakhstan’s strategic priorities. As a major producer contributing around 2% of global daily oil supply, Kazakhstan has faced recent production challenges due to incidents at the Tengiz field and drone strikes on infrastructure serving the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. U.S. companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil hold significant stakes in Kazakhstan’s oilfields, underscoring the importance of these ties. Washington has deepened relations with Kazakhstan, including President Trump’s invitation to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for international initiatives.
How much does Venezuela owe China, and why is oil involved?
https://boereport.com/2026/01/22/how-much-does-venezuela-owe-china-and-why-is-oil-involved/
Venezuela’s debt to China is estimated between $10 billion and $15 billion, with data remaining patchy due to the lack of comprehensive statistics since 2017 amid U.S. sanctions and a sovereign default. Most debts are oil-backed loans from China Development Bank, where proceeds from oil exports to China serviced the obligations through Beijing-controlled accounts, even as other creditors were unpaid. The U.S. takeover of Venezuelan oil exports has rerouted barrels previously used for debt repayment, disrupting this mechanism. China granted a grace period in 2019, allowing crude cargoes to compensate for payments, but the future of repayments remains uncertain under U.S. control.
US control of Venezuela oil risks debt restructuring showdown with China
https://boereport.com/2026/01/22/us-control-of-venezuela-oil-risks-debt-restructuring-showdown-with-china/
The U.S. takeover of Venezuela’s oil exports has intercepted cargoes meant for repaying about $10-15 billion in Chinese debt, potentially complicating Venezuela’s post-2017 default restructuring and China’s cooperation in other global debt deals. Venezuela serviced Chinese loans via oil-backed arrangements, with proceeds flowing into Beijing-controlled accounts, bypassing sanctions affecting other creditors. The U.S. now directs revenues to a Qatar-based account, unlikely to service China, which could subordinate legacy creditors and challenge fair treatment in restructurings. If pushed for writedowns, China might withhold cooperation in future Common Framework workouts, prolonging Venezuela’s recovery and limiting repayments.
Oil prices rebound after Trump comments on ‘armada’ moving to Iran spur supply worries
https://boereport.com/2026/01/23/oil-prices-rebound-after-trump-comments-on-armada-moving-to-iran-spur-supply-worries/
Oil prices rebounded following President Trump’s renewed threats against Iran, raising fears of military action disrupting supplies from the major Middle Eastern producer. Brent crude futures rose 43 cents to $64.49 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 42 cents to $59.78 per barrel, recovering from a 2% drop the previous day. Trump’s comments about a U.S. armada heading toward Iran, coupled with warships including an aircraft carrier en route, heightened tensions amid Iran’s role as OPEC’s fourth-largest producer and key exporter to China. Prices had earlier climbed on Greenland invasion threats but softened on bearish U.S. inventory data showing a 3.6 million barrel build.
‘It’s the sovereignty of the country’: Guinea-Bissau says US vaccine study suspended
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/23/guinea-bissau-hepatitis-b-vaccine-study
Guinea-Bissau’s health minister suspended a controversial US-funded hepatitis B vaccine study led by Danish researchers, citing ethical concerns and poor scientific review after a coup changed leadership. The trial planned to vaccinate 7,000 infants at birth while withholding for another 7,000 until six weeks, despite high hepatitis B prevalence putting unvaccinated newborns at risk. Africa CDC will review the study, emphasizing Guinea-Bissau’s sovereignty amid U.S. HHS insistence that it proceed. Ethical lapses include initial approval by a local committee without noting withholding, no approvals from Danish or U.S. boards, violating Helsinki declaration, in a resource-poor nation with limited healthcare.
AI Compute Data Centres & Mining Operations Have Shifted The Power Demand Landscape
https://www.dobenergy.com/news/headlines/2026/01/23/ai-compute-data-centres-mining-operations-have-shi
Global power demand is surging exponentially, with data centers projected to grow 16% in 2025 and double by 2030, mirroring trends in Canada and Alberta amid grid constraints and regulatory shifts. Radiant Ridge Energy offers hybrid solutions integrating natural gas, renewables, and storage for reliable power, with modular systems scalable to 100MW+ using 2.5 million cubic feet of natural gas daily for a 10MW site. Benefits include 24/7 availability, waste gas reuse, lower costs, and methane mitigation via instrument air, generating emission credits. Key considerations for partnerships involve fixed pricing, in-house expertise, multi-technology designs, and regulatory compliance across provinces.
Trump Orders U.S. Navy Strike Group Toward Iran as Nuclear Tensions Escalate
http://worlddefencenews.blogspot.com/2026/01/trump-orders-us-navy-strike-group.html
President Trump directed a U.S. Navy strike group toward Iran amid escalating nuclear tensions, renewing warnings against restarting Tehran’s program or harming protesters. The deployment includes warships, an aircraft carrier, and guided missile destroyers, signaling heightened readiness for potential military action. Iran, OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, exports significantly to China, raising supply disruption concerns. This move follows Trump’s comments on an armada approaching Iran, amid anti-government unrest blamed on U.S. influence by Tehran. Geopolitical risks could impact global energy infrastructure, with analysts monitoring for further escalations affecting oil markets and regional stability.
EU to Suspend Planned Counter-Tariffs on €93 Billion of US Goods
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-23/eu-to-suspend-planned-counter-tariffs-on-93-billion-of-us-goods
The European Union plans to suspend retaliatory tariffs on €93 billion of US goods for another six months after President Trump backed down from threats to impose levies on EU countries opposing his Greenland annexation push. The countermeasures, including tariffs on Boeing aircraft, US-made cars, and bourbon, were set to expire on February 7. The European Commission will propose extending the suspension, handling trade for the bloc. This follows Trump’s decision to retreat from military action on Greenland, easing tensions and allowing provisional implementation of the deal once ratified by South American nations involved.
A Record LNG Year Looms for Europe as Markets Rebalance
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/A-Record-LNG-Year-Looms-for-Europe-as-Markets-Rebalance.html
Europe anticipates record LNG imports exceeding 185 billion cubic meters in 2026, driven by storage replenishment, Russian supply phase-out, and pipeline exports to Ukraine, following a 2025 high of over 175 bcm. LNG share in Europe’s gas supply rose to 38% in 2025 from 30% in 2024, with U.S. deliveries surging 60%. Global LNG supply growth accelerates to over 7% in 2026, easing market pressures amid geopolitical uncertainty. The IEA highlights LNG’s role in rebalancing markets, potentially lowering prices and enhancing liquidity through interconnected regional systems.
China Moves to Price LNG in Yuan
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Moves-to-Price-LNG-in-Yuan.html
China plans to launch yuan-denominated LNG futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange as early as February to hedge volatile prices and influence global LNG pricing, challenging benchmarks like Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM. A domestic benchmark reflecting China’s supply-demand is needed, as JKM focuses on Japan and Korea. Major traders and Middle Eastern exporters may show interest. Despite a 2025 import rebound, overall LNG purchases fell but are projected to rise double-digits in 2026 amid 10% global supply growth. Recent price swings in China, from five-year lows to surges due to cold weather, underscore volatility.
Why Sudan Is Drawing a Red Line Around the Heglig Oil Field
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Sudan-Is-Drawing-a-Red-Line-Around-the-Heglig-Oil-Field.html
Sudan insists on maintaining control over the Heglig oil field amid civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces, denying any RSF involvement to preserve perceptions of security for insurers and operators. Heglig serves as a critical corridor for processing and exporting South Sudan’s economically vital crude through Sudan, rather than a major production site itself. Open-source reports show no sustained RSF control in Heglig’s core facilities, with RSF influence mainly through threats from Darfur and West Kordofan. Government denial aims to prevent infrastructure from being deemed compromised, supporting staffing, maintenance, and insurance decisions essential for operations.
Global Gas Demand To Increase In 2026, Says IEA
https://www.dobenergy.com/news/headlines/2026/01/23/global-gas-demand-to-increase-in-2026-says-iea
The International Energy Agency forecasts global gas demand to rise in 2026, driven by economic recovery and increased industrial needs across key markets. This follows a slowdown in 2025, with North American LNG supply surges expected to rebalance markets and reduce pressures amid geopolitical uncertainties. The IEA emphasizes LNG’s role in enhancing liquidity and interconnecting regional gas systems, potentially lowering prices. Europe anticipates record LNG imports, phasing out Russian supplies while replenishing storage. Investments in renewables and efficiency measures support sustainable growth, aligning with broader energy transition goals.
A former Trump official wants to build a massive data center in a remote corner of Greenland. Will it work?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/23/greenland-data-center-trump-greenmet.html
A former Trump administration official is planning a multi-billion-dollar data center in Greenland’s Kangerlussuaq, targeting 300 MW by mid-2027 and 1.5 GW by 2028, amid hyperscalers’ AI capacity rush. GreenMet, led by ex-Pence aide Drew Horn, secured half the funding contingent on milestones like permits, with technical partners enlisted but approvals pending. The project leverages Greenland’s hydro potential and cold climate for efficiency, despite high construction costs and short seasons. Initial power from LNG barges transitions to hydroelectric, amid geopolitical tensions over U.S. Greenland ambitions and Trump’s tariff threats.
Natural Gas Prices Across the USA Surge
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/natural_gas_prices_across_the_usa_surge-23-jan-2026-182840-article/?rss=true
Natural gas prices surged across U.S. hubs ahead of a historic winter storm, with Henry Hub cash prices reaching $18.80 per million Btu and SoCal Citygate at $8 per million Btu, driven by forecasts of plummeting temperatures boosting heating demand. February futures rose 6.3% to $5.362 per million Btu, marking the biggest weekly gain since 1990 amid concerns over pipeline icing in southern states. The shift followed hedge funds’ bearish positions, with prices briefly exceeding $5.50 per million Btu. U.S. output dipped to 108.4 bcfd in January, while demand is projected to fall from 173 bcfd this week.
Glenfarne announces Alaska LNG Phase One milestones
https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/23012026/glenfarne-announces-alaska-lng-phase-one-milestones/
Glenfarne Alaska LNG advanced Phase One of the Alaska LNG project, focusing on a 739-mile pipeline from the North Slope to deliver gas domestically, targeting first gas in 2029, with Phase Two adding export capabilities. Provisional EPCM services awarded to Worley Ltd., conditional pipeline construction awards to firms like MasTec and Quanta Services, and line pipe agreements for 700,000 tons with suppliers including Corinth Pipeworks. Gas supply precedents secured with ExxonMobil, Hilcorp, and others; in-state demand anchored by ENSTAR and Donlin Gold. The project, 75% Glenfarne-owned, emphasizes regulatory alignment, community participation, and methane mitigation.
Merz Says Mercosur Trade Deal Should Take Effect Provisionally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-23/merz-says-mercosur-trade-deal-should-take-effect-provisionally
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged the EU to provisionally implement the Mercosur trade deal with Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay, bypassing judicial review from opponents in the European Parliament. Merz emphasized the pact’s democratic legitimacy and potential to take effect upon ratification by the first South American nation. The agreement aims to enhance economic ties amid global trade shifts, with Merz highlighting benefits for European competitiveness. Discussions follow U.S. influence on regional dynamics, positioning the deal as a strategic counterbalance. Merz’s stance reflects urgency to secure trade advantages despite internal EU resistance.
Geopolitics Override Fundamentals as Oil Extends 2026 Rally
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Geopolitics-Override-Fundamentals-as-Oil-Extends-2026-Rally.html
Oil prices extended 2026 gains without weekly drops, driven by geopolitical risks from President Trump’s Iran rhetoric, pushing Brent above $66 despite limited disruptions like Kazakhstan’s. IEA raised 2026 demand growth to 930,000 b/d amid weaker oversupply. Reliance resumes Russian oil imports; U.S. allows Venezuelan sales to China at fair prices. French seizure of Russian tanker; Colombia halts Ecuador electricity over tariffs. Gold hits $4,900/ounce record; Japan nuclear restart fails. Kazakhstan investigates Tengiz fire; PetroChina restarts refinery on discounted Russian oil. Venture Global wins Repsol arbitration; Indonesia targets fuel import halt by 2027; Shell considers Argentina shale sale; China launches yuan LNG futures.
Russian oil exports to China surge in January as India, Turkey cut buying
http://hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2026/01/russian-oil-exports-to-china-surge-in-january-as-india-turkey-cut-buying/
China ramps up Russian oil imports to nearly 1.5 million bpd in January, absorbing barrels diverted from India and Turkey amid tougher U.S. sanctions on sellers like Rosneft and Lukoil. Urals imports hit a record 405,000 bpd, while India’s fell below 1 million bpd in December, expected to hold steady. Turkey reduced Urals to 250,000 bpd. Discounts for Urals to China widened to $12 per barrel below Brent, influenced by EU bans on Russian-origin fuels. Surplus Urals pressured prices, with China condemning redirection of Venezuelan exports.
Trump sparks UK firestorm by claiming NATO troops ‘stayed a little back’ in Afghanistan
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5703206-trump-nato-afghanistan-remarks-criticized/
President Trump’s claim that NATO forces stayed back from Afghanistan’s front lines sparked outrage in the UK and among allies, with leaders like Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemning the dismissal of sacrifices in the 20-year war. Opposition figures called it a disgrace and insult, demanding an apology, while a veteran’s mother highlighted her son’s trauma. White House defended U.S. contributions dwarf others. NATO Secretary-General Rutte confronted Trump at Davos, noting one allied soldier lost per two Americans post-9/11. The remarks underscore tensions in NATO relations amid geopolitical shifts.
U.S. Sanctions Iran’s Shadow Fleet Over Brutal Crackdown on Protesters
https://gcaptain.com/u-s-sanctions-irans-shadow-fleet-over-brutal-crackdown-on-protesters/
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned nine vessels and eight management companies in Iran’s shadow fleet for transporting millions in oil and petroleum, funding repression amid protests since December 2025 over economic collapse and internet shutdowns. Thousands killed and detained, per rights groups. Sanctions under Executive Order 13902 align with maximum pressure via National Security Presidential Memorandum 2. Entities block U.S. property and prohibit transactions, with penalties for violations. Treasury Secretary Bessent condemned Iran’s prioritization of terrorism over citizens, accelerating currency and living standards decline.
Sanctioned Russian Oil Tanker Goes ‘Not Under Command’ in Mediterranean Off Algeria
https://gcaptain.com/sanctioned-russian-oil-tanker-goes-not-under-command-in-mediterranean-off-algeria/
The sanctioned tanker Progress, carrying 730,000 barrels of Russian Urals crude, veered north off Algeria, changing status to “Not under command” with speed dropping to one knot, indicating mechanical issues. Western scrutiny targets over 600 vessels in Russian oil trade; another was boarded by French navies. Managed by Legacy Marine LLC in Russia, the 19-year-old ship switched to Russian flag. “Not under command” per COLREGs means inability to maneuver due to failures like steering or propulsion. By midday Friday, it drifted eastward at one knot.
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Burn Displacement Program Builds Momentum
https://www.mees.com/2026/1/23/power-water/saudi-arabias-oil-burn-displacement-program-builds-momentum/02e156c0-f87f-11f0-bad8-27fe4d5ae102
Saudi Arabia’s oil burn dropped by around 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, potentially falling below 1 million b/d for the first time since 2019, with further declines expected in 2026 from increased gas and renewables. November burn fell 302,000 b/d year-on-year to 869,000 b/d, averaging 1.012 million b/d over 11 months. The displacement program continues apace, prioritizing oil reduction in power generation. Net fuel oil imports shrank amid declining burn. Saudi Arabia aims for sustained reductions through energy diversification.
UAE Oil Trading Market Faces An Uncertain 2026
https://www.mees.com/2026/1/23/refining-petrochemicals/uae-oil-trading-market-faces-an-uncertain-2026/ab744110-f87e-11f0-853c-1f7d9226a798
The UAE’s oil trading sector faces uncertainty in 2026 after a golden era ended in 2025 due to tightened U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian barrels, geopolitical shifts, and industry headwinds. Dubai’s momentum stalled as regional markets closed and margins narrowed, with NOCs and system-barrel firms gaining share. Covid contango spiked Fujairah storage prices; Russia’s Ukraine invasion displaced barrels eastward, surging UAE volumes and prompting firm exodus to Dubai. Independent firms struggle as giants consolidate control amid sanctions and disruptions.
Libya Takes ‘Pivotal Step’ With First Deepwater Well
https://www.mees.com/2026/1/23/corporate/libya-takes-pivotal-step-with-first-deepwater-well/4cc2bd50-f87b-11f0-b15c-71f476c4d5d6
Libya’s NOC announced Eni and BP started drilling the country’s first deepwater exploration well offshore Sirte, a milestone for expanding offshore resources and signaling renewed international upstream interest. Several partners resumed drilling over two years. Libya’s 2025 crude exports and output hit post-revolution highs. The well, geared up since December, advances Libyan efforts amid political divisions. Officials hope a Tripoli conference attracts investments, enhancing recovery in Africa’s oil producer despite disruptions since 2014 split.
Israel Set For Record Gas Output Barring New Security Risks
https://www.mees.com/2026/1/23/oil-gas/israel-set-for-record-gas-output-barring-new-security-risks/a76f59a0-f87a-11f0-ba27-23bd68d8fb02
Israel’s gas sector anticipates record highs in 2026 with Leviathan and Tamar expansions adding 600mn cfd, pushing output over 3bn cfd, exporting most to Egypt via pipeline debottlenecking. 2025 saw slight drops from 2024’s 2.587bn cfd due to Iran conflict shut-ins. Growth trajectory resumes, but repeat disruptions pose risks. Infrastructure and export routes support increased volumes, positioning Israel for sustained expansion amid regional security concerns.
Iran is not a major oil producer, but it still moves prices. Here’s why
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/23/iran-protests-why-oil-markets-care-so-much-about-the-country.html
Oil prices rose amid U.S.-Iran tensions from protests since December 2025 over economic collapse, with over 5,000 deaths and Trump’s threats raising disruption fears. Iran produces 3.4 million bpd, but its Strait of Hormuz proximity amplifies risks, as 20% of global crude flows there; past tanker attacks heighten concerns. OPEC’s reduced spare capacity limits offsets if Iranian exports halt. Sanctions hamper exports, mostly to China at discounts; 25% tariffs on Iran-business countries proceed, questioning further pressure efficacy.
US natgas futures surge 68% this week on frigid weather forecasts
https://boereport.com/2026/01/23/us-natgas-futures-surge-68-this-week-on-frigid-weather-forecasts/
U.S. natural gas futures surged over 68% this week, with February delivery rising 20.6 cents to $5.25 per mmBtu amid forecasts for extreme cold driving near-record heating demand and potential well freezes. Henry Hub cash prices hit $18.80 per mmBtu; SoCal Citygate reached $8 per mmBtu. EIA reported a 120 bcf storage withdrawal, exceeding forecasts but below averages. Output dipped to 108.4 bcfd in January; demand projected to fall from 173 bcfd. Dutch and British prices steady amid U.S. cold concerns.
An overview of Iran’s main gas field and oil infrastructure
https://boereport.com/2026/01/23/an-overview-of-irans-main-gas-field-and-oil-infrastructure-2/
Iran’s South Pars gas field, sharing the world’s largest reservoir with Qatar’s North Dome, produces gas mainly for domestic use due to sanctions, totaling 276 bcm in 2024 with 94% consumed internally. Oil production is 3.3 million bpd plus 1.3 million bpd liquids, 4.5% of global supplies; refineries capacity 2.6 million bpd. Exports 820,000 bpd oil products in 2025. Facilities in southwestern provinces; 90% crude exported via Kharg Island through Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions since 1979 reduced exports; 2025 crude to 1.7 million bpd, mostly China.
How the U.S. controls Iraq’s oil revenues
https://boereport.com/2026/01/23/how-the-u-s-controls-iraqs-oil-revenues/
Since 2003, the U.S. controls Iraq’s oil revenues via the Development Fund for Iraq at the New York Federal Reserve, providing leverage over Baghdad’s affairs and protecting from lawsuits. Oil accounts for 90% of Iraq’s budget, enabling U.S. influence on economic stability; threats to cut access deterred troop withdrawal in 2020. Officials cite stability and safeguards, facilitating dollar access and exchange-rate confidence. Restrictions created a black market dollar premium; auctions ended in 2025 under U.S. pressure against Iran laundering. Trump’s maximum pressure on Iran impacts Iraq.
Venezuela’s Heavy Oil Gets a Lifeline from US Naphtha
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuelas-Heavy-Oil-Gets-a-Lifeline-from-US-Naphtha.html
U.S. naphtha shipments arrived in Venezuela via Vitol-chartered tanker, advancing heavy oil production restart under a $2 billion deal allowing sales of 50 million stored barrels post-Maduro. Naphtha dilutes extra-heavy crude for pipeline flow and export, critical amid refining collapse and sanctions. Russia supplied in 2025 but faced U.S. enforcement diversions. Shipments enable blending and sales but don’t resolve degraded infrastructure or investment needs. Analysts warn diluent shortages could cost hundreds of thousands bpd without steady supplies.
US targets 9 vessels in Iran shadow fleet with sanctions
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5703530-iran-shadow-fleet-sanctions/
The Treasury sanctioned nine vessels and eight companies in Iran’s shadow fleet for transporting millions in oil funding repression amid protests since December 2025 over economic collapse and shutdowns, with thousands killed. Sanctions under Executive Order 13902 block U.S. property and prohibit transactions. Secretary Bessent condemned Iran’s prioritization of terrorism, accelerating decline. Pentagon repositioned carrier group nearer Middle East; Trump called it an armada. U.S. supports Iranians’ calls for freedom.
This Ice Storm Will Test the Grid’s New Batteries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-01-23/opinion-ice-storm-will-test-the-grid-s-batteries-video
An impending ice storm across the U.S. this weekend risks power grid shutdowns, testing new batteries’ effectiveness in maintaining stability. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Liam Denning highlights that successful battery performance could prevent disruptions. The storm coincides with reduced gas supplies and around-the-clock data center demands straining infrastructure. Batteries represent a key innovation for resilience amid extreme weather. Outcomes will inform future grid enhancements and energy reliability strategies.
Azerbaijan Promises More Gas to Europe as Production Reality Lags
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Azerbaijan-Promises-More-Gas-to-Europe-as-Production-Reality-Lags.html
Azerbaijan’s SOCAR announced gas supplies to Austria and Germany via TAP, increasing recipients to 16 countries including 10 EU members, but uncertainty persists on meeting 2022’s 20 bcm EU export pledge by 2027. 2025 production rose 2.4% to 51.5 bcm, but EU exports dipped 1% to 12.8 bcm amid growing domestic demand. TAP capacity expanded 1.2 bcm/year; potential German deal up to 1.5 bcm/year. Shah Deniz expansion ongoing; Absheron produced 1.6 bcm, eyeing 6 bcm. Turkey secured 2.25 bcm/year from 2029. Pipeline upgrades needed for higher volumes; reduced data transparency heightens doubts.
SLB Predicts Worst Is Behind Global Oil Market
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/slb_predicts_worst_is_behind_global_oil_market-23-jan-2026-182839-article/?rss=true
SLB raised its dividend and beat Q4 earnings estimates amid Middle East activity growth and data-center expansion, with CEO Olivier Le Peuch predicting gradual drilling ramp-up in OPEC regions post-supply glut. Shares rose 4.8% initially. Adjusted earnings 78 cents per share exceeded 74 cents forecast. Focus on production services and tech offsets muted drilling. SLB eyes Venezuela revival; Energy Secretary notes no direct security provision. Le Peuch confident in rapid ramp-up with licensing and compliance.
What Future Awaits Syria’s Kurds?
https://www.stimson.org/2026/what-future-awaits-syrias-kurds/
Syria’s Kurds, 10% of the population in northern and eastern regions, face setbacks with SDF losses in Aleppo, Euphrates areas, and Deir ez-Zor oil fields amid Arab tribal entries. Negotiation channels persist to avert terrorism cycles. Kurds express U.S. disappointment, shifting toward Syrian arrangements. Transitional president Al-Sharaa’s decree recognizes Kurds’ identity, tied to SDF-army integration. Ceasefire understandings delineate regions, form local forces, combat ISIS, return displaced, share resources. Challenges include administration transformation, women’s roles, and options: flexibility for governance or militia resistance.
Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin will refly booster on next launch of powerful New Glenn rocket
https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-will-refly-booster-on-next-launch-of-powerful-new-glenn-rocket
Blue Origin’s New Glenn will launch an AST SpaceMobile Block 2 BlueBird satellite in late February, reusing the NG-2 booster that successfully landed after NASA’s ESCAPADE Mars mission on November 13. The 322-foot rocket debuted in January 2025, with its first stage designed for 25+ flights. NG-3 from Cape Canaveral aids AST’s direct-to-cellphone constellation, following one Block 2 and five first-generation BlueBirds. CEO Dave Limp emphasized New Glenn’s reliability for customers. Blue Origin follows SpaceX in orbital reuse, with New Shepard’s 38 suborbital flights.
DOE cancels $30B in green loans
https://thehill.com/newsletters/energy-environment/5703938-energy-department-cancels-green-loans/
The Department of Energy canceled $30 billion in green loans, signaling a shift in priorities amid policy changes. This decision impacts renewable energy projects and climate initiatives, potentially slowing transition efforts. Stakeholders express concerns over reduced funding for sustainable development. The move aligns with broader fiscal adjustments, prioritizing other sectors. Analysts monitor implications for energy markets and environmental goals.
Mexico weighs stopping oil shipments to Cuba amid concerns of Trump retaliation, sources say
https://boereport.com/2026/01/23/mexico-weighs-stopping-oil-shipments-to-cuba-amid-concerns-of-trump-retaliation-sources-say/
Mexico reviews oil shipments to Cuba amid fears of U.S. retaliation under President Trump, who warned against aiding the island, now reliant on Mexico post-Venezuelan halt. Sheinbaum affirms humanitarian aid but internal anxiety grows over antagonizing Trump during USMCA negotiations and cartel combat. Trump questioned shipments in a call; U.S. drones patrol Gulf routes. Mexico shipped 17,200 bpd crude and 2,000 bpd products worth $400 million in 2025’s first nine months. Concerns include Cuban humanitarian crisis triggering migration; options range from halt to reduction.
California becomes first state to join WHO disease network after US exit
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5703447-who-gavin-newsom-california/
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced the state joins WHO’s Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network post-U.S. withdrawal, rebuking Trump’s decision after 80 years of membership. Newsom met WHO Director-General Tedros in Davos, where his event was canceled. The move strengthens public health preparedness amid federal divergence. Newsom condemned withdrawal as reckless, harming Americans; California fosters global partnerships. State coalitions like West Coast Health Alliance diverge from White House policies.
US Warship Visit to Cambodia Base Shows Continued Warming Ties
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-24/us-warship-visit-to-cambodia-base-shows-continued-warming-ties
The USS Cincinnati docked at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base for a five-day visit, the third foreign vessel since its upgrade, signaling thawing military relations amid tensions over access. U.S. and Cambodian officers will conduct meetings and maritime security exercises. The visit follows years of strain, highlighting continued warming ties. Cambodia’s strategic Gulf of Thailand port remains contentious.
China Probes No. 1 General as Xi’s Military Purge Deepens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-24/china-announces-probe-into-vice-military-chair-zhang-youxia
China investigates Politburo member Zhang Youxia, vice military chair since 2017, and commission member Liu Zhenli for serious violations, shrinking the Central Military Commission to Xi and his deputy. This first probe of Xi’s close ally expands the widest general purge since 1976, amid 2027 congress preparations. Both generals have Vietnam border fight experience. Since mid-2023, multiple top officials ousted; Politburo vacancies rise. Xi prioritizes anti-graft for corrupt officials’ no hiding place.
Namibia: Pancontinental Energy provides update in relation to its PEL 87 project, offshore Namibia
https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/namibia/pancontinental-energy-nl-(asx--pcl)-(%E2%80%9Cpancontinental-or-%E2%80%9Ccompany%E2%80%9D)-provides-the-following-update-in-relation-to-its-pel-87-project--offshore-202622
Pancontinental Orange Pty Ltd applied on October 6, 2025, for a 12-month extension to PEL 87’s First Renewal Exploration Period, ending January 22, 2026, with no formal MIME response yet. The Namibian Petroleum Act states licenses do not expire during renewal consideration. Pancontinental liaises with MIME for updates. The project involves offshore Namibia exploration.
25% penal tariff on India for Russian oil buys to end? Trump’s aide says there’s a way
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/25-penal-tariff-on-india-for-russian-oil-buys-to-end-trumps-aide-says-theres-a-way/articleshow/127376211.cms
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested removing 25% tariffs on India if Russian oil purchases continue declining, noting refinery imports collapsed post-tariffs as a success. Congress debates 500% duties on Russian oil buyers; India prioritizes affordable energy. Trump warned tariffs could rise; India rejected claims of curbing purchases. December Urals imports fell to 929,000 bpd, lowest since 2022. Refiners shift to Middle East, Africa, Latin America. Bessent criticized Europe buying Indian refined Russian-origin products, indirectly funding Russia. EU-India FTA nears, covering 2 billion people and 25% global GDP.
Hungary Opposition Elevates Russia Critic as Foreign Policy Head
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-24/hungary-opposition-elevates-russia-critic-as-foreign-policy-head
Hungary’s Tisza Party appointed Anita Orban, a critic of Europe’s Russian energy dependence, to lead foreign policy, signaling a potential shift if in power. This follows naming a former Shell executive as economic adviser, bolstering credibility with technocrats. Orban’s role underscores efforts to counter current pro-Russia stances.
Singapore Pours $786 Million Into Race to Become AI Powerhouse
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-24/singapore-pours-786-million-into-race-to-become-ai-powerhouse
Singapore invests over S$1 billion in public AI research over five years to bolster a homegrown industry amid U.S.-China dominance. Minister Josephine Teo announced funds for research centers, capabilities, and talent pipeline. The bet aims to strengthen Singapore’s AI hub position.
Libya to sign 25-year oil deal with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/24/libya-to-sign-25-year-oil-deal-with-totalenergies-and-conocophillips.html
Libya signs a 25-year oil development deal with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips via Waha Oil Company, investing over $20 billion to boost capacity by 850,000 bpd, generating $376 billion revenues. Libya also inks a Chevron memorandum and Egypt cooperation agreement at the Tripoli summit. Deals strengthen ties with energy partners in Africa’s disrupted producer.
US Pushes for Quickest Fixes to Boost Venezuela Oil Output
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-24/trump-pushes-quick-fixes-to-boost-venezuela-oil-output
The U.S. discusses quick revival of Venezuelan oil output with Chevron, producers, and service providers like SLB, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, focusing on equipment repairs and site refreshes at a fraction of $100 billion full rebuild cost. Efforts prioritize damaged infrastructure amid post-Maduro $2 billion supply framework.
U.S. Navy Approves New Tomahawk Missile Upgrades to Sustain Long-Range Strike Through 2029
https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2026/u-s-navy-approves-new-tomahawk-missile-upgrades-to-sustain-long-range-strike-through-2029
The U.S. Navy awarded Raytheon $380.8 million to extend Tomahawk recertification and modernization through 2029, raising total value to $476.5 million for Lots Five and Six. Upgrades replace components for 15 more years; Block V enhances navigation/communications. Block Va adds anti-ship seeker; Vb new warhead. Funding spans services and Foreign Military Sales. Tomahawk: 900nm range, satellite retargeting, standoff precision.
Substack Articles of Note (not necessarily news but thought provoking articles):
DAVOS REVIEW: January 23, 2026
Davos 2026 concluded under “A Spirit of Dialogue,” focusing on economic realism with 3.3% growth solid but insufficient amid disruptions and inequality risks. AI threatens middle-class jobs as a “tsunami”; no full global rupture, emphasizing adaptive Plans B and multipolarity. Trade persists despite uncertainties; prioritize productivity and problem-solving. Lagarde urged alternatives, distinguishing signal from noise; Georgieva warned complacency; Okonjo-Iweala advocated adaptive strategies.
U.S. Oil Policy Is Baffling
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called for doubling oil output amid baffling contradictions: flat U.S./EU demand for a decade, China’s peak gasoline/oil demand, tepid global growth. Paris Accord’s 195 signatories aim to reduce emissions, impossible with oil growth; nonsignatories include Yemen, Iran, Libya, U.S. Europe’s post-Ukraine lesson: reduce external dependency, not import growth. Questions arise on buyers for extra 100 million bpd, currency, duration.
China Pushes Yuan to Strongest Level Since 2023
The yuan strengthened below 7 per dollar for the first time since 2023, with PBoC setting 6.9929 rate amid U.S. dollar pressure from Greenland tensions and European debates on reserves. A weaker dollar impacts Chinese exports negatively but aids imports; PBoC manages controlled appreciation. Onshore closed at 6.9726 Thursday; offshore at 6.9628. Gap widened slightly but normal. Beijing navigates export promotion, partner reassurance, weak economy.
The vertical phase
Global monetary system fractures amid eroding trust, fiscal indiscipline, weaponized chains, debasement; capital flees to no-risk assets like silver. Russian reserves confiscation set precedent; Germany repatriates $100B gold. DXY nears 15-year support break. Japan yields spike; repatriation strains U.S. deficits. China restricts silver exports. COMEX registered silver covers 15-16% paper; January deliveries five times normal. LBMA lease rates over 8%. Oliver forecasts $200-500 silver in months.
Ethiopia’s Debt Deal: What Five Years in Default Teaches Emerging Markets
https://substack.com/home/post/p-185540696
Ethiopia’s debt deal after five years in default offers lessons for emerging markets on prolonged negotiations, creditor coordination challenges, and economic impacts. Restructuring involved IMF support, bilateral agreements, and bondholder concessions amid creditor disputes. Outcomes highlight needs for faster resolutions, transparent processes, and sustainable frameworks to mitigate growth stagnation and investor hesitancy in high-debt nations.
London greenlights China’s massive embassy complex, Plus China casts itself as the guardian of globalization at Davos-- China Boss News 1.23.26
UK approved China’s vast embassy at Royal Mint Court near Tower of London, becoming Europe’s largest after Xi raised it with Starmer at G20. Site projects influence near City; intel favored consolidation. For exiles, it expands coercion platform. Davos: Globalization hardens; Trump frames tariffs as access price; China fills space, adjusting chains.
While Brussels Scales Back Agriculture, Beijing Makes It a Priority
European farmers protested CAP 2028-2034 cuts from €387B to under €300B, reducing annual funds by €15B. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan prioritizes agriculture for national security, mandating 50M-ton grain increase, minimum cultivated area, saline soil use, seed control. Convergence on sustainability, income growth; divergences on production: EU marginalizes, China expands via dirigisme. EU lacks unified vision; China promotes urban-rural integration. Highlights opposing food sovereignty ideas.
US Carries Out Airstrike In Somalia Against ISIS, Terrorist Attack In Nigeria Results In Dozens Of Casualties
U.S. Africa Command airstrike on January 21 in Golis Mountains eliminated ISIS-Somalia militants. Somali forces captured five in Muqdisho on January 23, seizing explosives linked to Al-Shabaab/ISIS. Nigeria’s Borno attack caused dozens of military casualties; airstrikes killed over 40 militants.
Shadow Warriors: American Lawfare vs. Chinese Resource Dominance
U.S. allocated $2B via 2025 Defense Production Act and One Big Beautiful Bill Act to boost nickel stockpiles and mining, representing <1% global production while consuming 8-10%. Funneled millions to NGOs for five-year lawfare against China’s Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, world’s top nickel miner/smeller, via unions, forced labor claims.
Interpreting Trump’s Harsh Criticism Of The UK’s Chagos Islands Compromise
Trump’s criticism of UK’s Chagos handover to Mauritius as weakness risking China/Russia influence may precondition pressure to nullify it on security pretexts, avoiding local returns and water rights exploitation. Connects to Greenland; UK nullification could shatter rules-based order support, aligning as US partner in might-makes-right order like Maduro capture. US advances security unilaterally, potentially at allies’ expense.
Executive Orientation:
Readers encountering today’s coverage of U.S. military posturing toward Iran and rising oil prices might assume that political rhetoric and immediate threats are the primary forces shaping energy market volatility, with disruptions appearing as isolated risks tied to leadership decisions. This view, however, misses the underlying constraints that bind these developments, where surface-level escalations obscure the entrenched dependencies on throughput capacities in key chokepoints and the incentives embedded in long-standing export arrangements. The narrative overlooks how Iran’s export routes, heavily oriented toward specific buyers, intersect with broader shifts in global supply chains, such as Europe’s pivot to alternative gas sources and the rerouting of sanctioned cargoes, revealing a web of interconnected vulnerabilities rather than standalone events.
Similarly, reports on U.S. oversight of Venezuelan oil flows and potential debt frictions with major creditors might lead to the belief that diplomatic maneuvers alone dictate recovery trajectories, yet this assumption understates the role of infrastructure limitations and capital allocation priorities that govern output revival. These stories link not through overt policy clashes but via the structural incentives driving naphtha dependencies and the contracts underpinning debt servicing, which in turn echo the diversification efforts seen in yuan-based energy pricing initiatives and the strain on grids from emerging demand profiles. What appears as fragmented geopolitical maneuvering is instead a convergence of constraints on capital deployment and logistical throughput across regions.
The tension arises from these hidden bindings, where incentives for secure flows clash with infrastructure rigidities, leaving open the question of how such structural undercurrents will redirect capital and reshape alliances, demanding a closer examination beyond the day’s visible pressures.
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Disclaimer:
The headlines presented here are taken directly from the referenced articles and do not reflect any personal value judgment or opinion. They are generally presented chronologically based upon the publication time. I make no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or truthfulness of the content of these articles. It must be noted that the articles presented here are presented to develop thought and are not necessarily the thoughts of GeopoliticsUnplugged.com They are presented as interesting thought provoking discussion points. All news and information should be carefully scrutinized, considering the credibility of the source, the facts presented, and the strength of the supporting evidence. Readers are encouraged to form their own conclusions through critical analysis.
Our Take:
Today’s key geopolitical developments center on heightened U.S.-Iran tensions and shifts in global energy supply chains, with implications for major powers including China and Europe. The deployment of a U.S. Navy strike group toward Iran, prompted by Tehran’s nuclear program advancements and its violent suppression of domestic protests since December 2025, marks a significant escalation in Middle East dynamics. This move, coupled with new sanctions on Iran’s shadow fleet, underscores Washington’s renewed maximum pressure campaign, which could disrupt Iranian oil exports primarily routed to China through the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, the U.S. assumption of control over Venezuela’s oil exports has intercepted cargoes intended for servicing $10-15 billion in oil-backed debt to Beijing, potentially forcing a contentious debt restructuring under frameworks like the Common Framework. In the broader energy landscape, Europe’s push toward record LNG imports exceeding 185 billion cubic meters in 2026 aims to offset phased-out Russian supplies, while China’s initiative to launch yuan-denominated LNG futures seeks to challenge dollar-based benchmarks and hedge against volatility.
These flashpoints warrant close monitoring over the coming weeks due to their potential to cascade into wider instability. The U.S.-Iran standoff risks alliance shifts, as European nations may face pressure to align with Washington’s sanctions regime, potentially straining transatlantic ties if military action ensues. Supply-chain risks are acute, given Iran’s role as OPEC’s fourth-largest producer; any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could elevate global oil prices by 10-20% in the short term, affecting importers like China and exacerbating inflationary pressures in energy-dependent economies. In Venezuela, a debt showdown with China could hinder the country’s post-default recovery, delaying infrastructure repairs and limiting output revival efforts under the $2 billion U.S.-facilitated framework, which might subordinate Beijing’s claims and complicate global debt workouts. Economically, these tensions could amplify volatility in natural gas markets, already strained by U.S. winter weather forecasts and AI-driven power demands, leading to grid strains and higher heating costs across North America.
Plausible follow-on impacts include cascading effects on global trade routes, such as increased insurance premiums for tankers navigating contested waters, and potential shifts in OPEC production strategies to compensate for Iranian shortfalls. Alliance dynamics may evolve if China retaliates against U.S. oil interceptions by withholding cooperation in other debt restructurings, fostering a more fragmented multilateral system. Supply-chain vulnerabilities could manifest in diversified sourcing, with Europe accelerating LNG deals and Asia pivoting to non-Russian suppliers, though this might heighten competition for U.S. exports.
Specific indicators to watch in the next 7-30 days include military movements, such as the positioning of the U.S. carrier group near Iranian waters or any Iranian naval responses in the Strait of Hormuz, which would signal escalation. Diplomatic statements from Tehran or Washington on nuclear inspections could indicate de-escalation if concessions emerge. Market signals like sustained WTI price spikes above $65 per barrel or widening Urals discounts might reflect anticipated supply disruptions. Key meetings, including potential U.S.-China talks on Venezuelan debt or EU discussions on LNG contracts, could reveal alliance shifts. Additionally, storage withdrawal reports from the EIA exceeding forecasts would point to de-escalation in U.S. natural gas pressures if weather moderates.
Contrarian take:
While consensus views portray the U.S.-Iran escalation as an imminent threat to global oil supplies, the limited spare capacity in OPEC suggests that short-term disruptions could be mitigated by Saudi output adjustments, as seen in past Strait of Hormuz incidents. Narratives emphasizing China’s vulnerability in Venezuelan debt may overlook Beijing’s leverage in global restructurings, where it has historically cooperated under the Common Framework to preserve long-term influence. The surge in U.S. natural gas prices is often attributed solely to weather, yet underlying AI-driven demand growth indicates a structural shift that could stabilize prices faster than expected through efficiency gains. Europe’s LNG import records are hailed as a diversification win, but dependence on U.S. supplies risks new vulnerabilities if transatlantic trade tensions resurface. Finally, Iran’s shadow fleet sanctions are seen as weakening Tehran, though historical adaptations via discounted exports to China demonstrate resilience in bypassing restrictions.
Market Summary:
Energy commodities exhibited mixed movements yesterday, influenced by geopolitical frictions in key producing regions. Henry Hub natural gas spot prices climbed to $5.28 per MMBtu, a surge driven by forecasts of extreme U.S. winter weather amplifying heating demand amid broader sanctions on Russian and Iranian shadow fleets, which heighten global gas supply uncertainties and push buyers toward diversified sources. WTI crude advanced to $61.07 per barrel, rebounding from bearish inventory builds as U.S. threats against Iran raised fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, potentially constricting flows from OPEC’s fourth-largest producer. Urals crude, facing widened discounts to Brent at around $12 per barrel due to redirected Russian exports to China and tougher U.S. sanctions, settled lower at $54.754 per barrel, reflecting pressures from surplus barrels and EU bans on Russian-origin fuels. Western Canadian Select (WCS) rose to $45.47 per barrel, benefiting from U.S. efforts to revive Venezuelan heavy oil through naphtha shipments, which could ease competition for discounted heavy crudes and narrow WCS-Brent spreads if Venezuelan output ramps up under the $2 billion framework.
Broader equity indices showed modest fluctuations tied to these energy geopolitics, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.03% to 6,915.61 amid optimism over U.S. natural gas demand offsetting Middle East risks, while the DJIA fell 0.58% to 49,098.71 on concerns over potential oil supply shocks from Iran. Gold spot prices held steady at $4,982.42 per troy ounce, serving as a hedge against escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and Venezuelan debt uncertainties that could fragment global trade. Silver remained flat at $102.99 per troy ounce, reflecting similar safe-haven appeal amid shadow fleet sanctions accelerating currency declines in sanctioned regimes. Copper advanced to $12,920.50 per ton, buoyed by China’s yuan LNG futures initiative signaling stronger industrial hedging against volatility, though tempered by alliance strains in energy-dependent manufacturing hubs.
Geopolitical Risk Board
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