In the aftermath of the stunning Fall of Aleppo (Syria's second most important urban center and formerly its most populous / economically vital city, prior to the initial onset of the conflict over a decade ago) and the ongoing success of the surprise Northwestern Syria Offensive led by HTS (Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham, known formerly as the al-Nusra Front) and a motley coalition of rebel militia groups representing the Syrian Opposition, the question now on everyone's mind —Is this the beginning of the end for embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his secular, authoritarian Syrian Arab Republic?

Or... Will Russia, Iran, and the rest of his political allies from abroad be able to once again save him and his regime from a total collapse? And what is the strategic role and foreign policy priorities when it comes to Erdogan's Turkey and its particular concerns pertaining to the Syrian refugee crisis and the ever precarious Kurdish Question?

I discuss all these topics and provide further context to the rapidly evolving situation that has as of November 27th, 2024 (and continuing to the present) officially reignited the up until recently frozen conflict that is the Syrian Civil War which ever since 2011 has yet to be decisively settled in one way or another.

An updated description is coming shortly and also a second segment that will mainly analyze the (more) recent Fall of Hama, what we can expect to happen next, and as well as the broader consequences of the reignited hostilities in Syria is coming VERY soon!

Until then, please stay safe and stay tuned!

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Recommended Resources:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/01/world/middleeast/syria-rebels-bashar-al-assad.html

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Previous segments covering similar interrelated issues:

https://getnuancednow.com/p/a-third-palestinian-intifada-hamas-092

https://getnuancednow.com/p/the-russo-ukrainian-war-as-of-october-1e7

A Neo-Ottoman Foreign Policy in Erdogan's Turkey? | Understanding the Geopolitical Situation in Northern Syria (and Ukraine) - JUNE 2022:

https://getnuancednow.com/p/a-neo-ottoman-foreign-policy-in-erdogans-e3d

Afghanistan on the Edge: Foreign Policy Analysis of America's Retreat from the Graveyard of Empires | JULY 2021 EDITION:

https://getnuancednow.com/p/afghanistan-on-the-edge-foreign-policy-e29

A Growing Rift Between Moscow and Damascus? | A Geopolitical Analysis of the Syrian Civil War - 2020:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbC0Ct2E2h

--

CONNECT:

Substack Newsletter: http://www.GetNuancedNow.com/

Official Website: ⁠http://www.GetNuanced.com/

Tech Channel | ⁠http://youtube.com/TJCMN⁠

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Main Twitter | ⁠http://twitter.com/TJCM

Show Instagram | ⁠http://instagram.com/GetNuanced⁠

Main Instagram | ⁠http://instagram.com/TJC⁠

--

—Tom

History never repeats itself, but all too often it rhymes and in the case of geopolitics, especially those pertaining to the ongoing disposition of the Middle East region —the particular sentiment of this adage roars from the theoretical world into the practical manifestation of mankind's darkest inclinations: yet another war. And this new war is part of a broader, decades-long territorial dispute between the State of Israel and Palestine, respectively.

The conflict also so happens to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and just like that fateful conflict in the 1970s, it is part of a broader historical context (i.e. the Cold War of the 20th century and the newfound, arguably "Second Cold War" of the 21st century) and will have a reverberating impact felt by not just those immediately engaged and currently participating in the street-to-street fighting, but also the broader international community and that especially pertains to the nations such as America, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China, and other regional powers.

It is in this particularly tense backdrop of affairs that Hamas (the Palestinian militant organization that exercises de-facto governance of the coastal Gaza Strip enclave) just today (October 7th, 2023) launched a stunning, surprise assault with its paramilitary groups against Israel proper which was able to pierce through the much vaunted defensive fortifications on the border and strike virtually unopposed as the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) were

In response to these developments, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally declared war on Hamas via a publicly broadcasted statement regarding the crisis and vowed swift, decisive retaliation as reports continue to pour in claiming that hundreds of causalities have been suffered so far on both sides. This also includes a significant number of Israeli civilians and military personnel alike who have been reportedly kidnapped by Hamas and trafficked into Gaza with the intention of the latter to use the former as bargaining chips in a potential prisoner swap. Please keep in mind that this is still an ongoing conflict and will definitely be revisited in between the content backlog which has long been overdue but is finally in the process of being ready!

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Correction: It was Yitzhak Rabin, not Ariel Sharon who was the aforementioned PM of Israel who was assassinated in the 1990s.

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Recommended Resources:

Read the article by AP that I originally cited in this segment: https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-rockets-airstrikes-tel-aviv-11fb98655c256d54ecb5329284fc37d2

Watch the video version of this segment on YT: https://youtu.be/-k9XSZMGuNE

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Previous segments covering similar interrelated issues:

My first video on the Israel vs. Palestine political dispute: https://youtu.be/x5FaFv6Juk8 | 2020 Edition

My thoughts on the Israeli Judicial Review crisis: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/getnuanced/episodes/Israeli-Prime-Minister-Benjamin-Bibi-Netanyahu-Pulls-an-Erdogan-in-the-High-Court-of-Israel-and-IGNITES-a-MASSIVE-Judicial-Review-CRISIS--JULY-2023-e27e5ac | JULY 2023 Edition

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CONNECT:

"There are bigger issues at stake!"

With, of course, a keen emphasis on what lessons can be derived from this critical moment in a time (relatively not too long ago) that was a major turning point for not just America and China (as well as Taiwan), but the broader international community at large.

The 1960s were the era in which the post-WWII multilateral institutions (e.g. the United Nations, NATO, etc...) were still burgeoning and facing multiple crises that spanned the vast length and width of the entire globe and the many fledging nations contained within it. One of these that is still of particular salience to the present (2023) was the dispute between the ROC (Republic of China) and PRC (People's Republic of China) over who the UN (and the broader international community) should ultimately recognize and allow to hold the representative seat for "China" within its organization, and by extension which of the two so-called Chinas would get to enjoy the associated diplomatic privileges that being a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) provides.

Keep in mind, that this segment is by no means conclusive, but it still can serve as a solid gateway into future discussions on this and other fascinating, interrelated subjects such as the original Cold War of the 20th century, especially the contemporary world is grappling with the potential of a second Cold War emerging in real-time.

--

Video Edition: https://youtu.be/hl9FNVNG6qo

Source Highlighted: https://commons.und.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?filename=9&article=1002&context=oers&type=additional

Complimentary Article: (Coming Soon, probably post-move!)

Subscribe via YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/GetNuanced

--

-TJC

The (Israeli) High Court of Justice faced two unprecedented challenges to Basic Law amendments on Tuesday with a flurry of petitions against one of the most controversial laws in recent memory, the reasonableness bill, and the Attorney-General's Office sanctioning the striking down of the incapacitation law.

While it is not impossible that the High Court may rule to use judicial review, based on the justices' past decisions and the repercussions, it remains unlikely.

The question at hand is what happens when the unstoppable force of judicial review meets the immovable object of the basic laws. The court is being asked to dare answer this question by using judicial review to strike down a matter of a basic law for the first time.

Israel lacks a formal written constitution, but at the dawn of the state adopted a compromise in which the quasi-constitutional Basic Laws would be legislated and then at some indeterminate point assembled into a constitution. A problem with the basic laws is the ease with which they can be introduced and amended. They also originally had no status over regular legislation.

The High Court has the power of judicial review, the ability to strike down legislation that is in contradiction with the founding principles and constitutional framework. This power developed over the decades since the state's founding, but the current version coalesced during the 1990s during the "constitutional revolution."

The current iteration of judicial review was in large part inferred from the introduction of new Basic Laws, Human Dignity and Liberty, and Freedom of Occupation which had provisions that prevented other legislation from contradicting them. This allowed the court to strike down contradictory laws.

Petitioners on Monday and Tuesday challenged the judicial reform bill amending Basic Law: The Judiciary limiting the reasonableness standard, which allowed judicial review of government administrative decisions if they were deemed extremely beyond what a responsible authority would decide.

The petitions argued that the Knesset had violated its constitutional authority - the right to continue the constitutional process by introducing Basic Laws and amendments that established the general constitutional guidelines for the structure of the state and government, powers and relationships between the branches.

The reasonableness standard bill was passed to extract immediate political benefit and was about a specific tool rather than a general rule, petitioners contended.

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Recommended Resources:

Read the full article here: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-752444

The article I originally used for the rather concerning quotation I cited: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/no-such-thing-as-palestinian-people-top-israeli-minister-says

(see: “There is no such thing as a Palestinian nation. There is no Palestinian history. There is no Palestinian language,” -Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich)

Read the other article I briefly mentioned: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/25/the-crisis-in-israel-is-just-getting-started-00108040

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Previously Mentioned Segments:

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/getnuanced/episodes/Understanding-the-2021-IsraelPalestine-Crisis-and-its-Broader-Historic-Context-as-of-05-21-21-e1338lv

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/getnuanced/episodes/A-Neo-Ottoman-Foreign-Policy-in-Erdogans-Turkey---Understanding-the-Geopolitical-Situation-in-Northern-Syria-and-Ukraine---JUNE-2022-e1jvtr0/a-a8454hl

--

CONNECT:

With the potential threat of (presumably tactical) nuclear weapons being used in anger for the first time since the Second World War looming on the horizon and amidst the recent territorial annexations of the four Ukrainian regions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk via a "totally legit" (at least according to President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation and his Ukrainian political collaborators) referendum, today I provide my perspective on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine as of early October 2022 (with the obvious caveat that things are ever-changing in terms of the approximate state of play on the ground, which will of course require further elaboration future video and podcast episodes).

In particular, I delve deep into the fascinating, often overlooked historical context of how modern Russia developed its particular spiritual and political identity as well as how Moscow and its various policymakers seek to rewrite what it perceives as the historical errors that had led to the disintegration at the end of the 20th century of the Soviet Union (USSR) and the reduction of its territorial borders into what they were prior to Putin's quest to resurrect the Russian Empire and establish in the process his own place in world history as the modern version of Czar / Emperor Peter the Great.

This particular segment was made on the fly and off the cuff, and covers a whole slew of miscellaneous topics that contextualize both the Byzantine nature of Russia's imperial past as well as the present juncture in which the Kremlin has taken the notion of being a besieged fortress in the face of Western opposition to the brink of a crisis with the risk of further military escalation in the form of a nuclear strike that could have grave implications for not just the ongoing conflict between Kyiv (and by extension Washington and NATO via proxy) and Moscow, but humanity as a collective species. Join me in this episode to learn more!

–

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/TPFCMear8Hk

–

Articles Referenced in the Podcast:

https://greekreporter.com/2022/09/22/byzantine-history-putin-russian-empire/

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

–

Interactive Map of the Ongoing Conflict: https://liveuamap.com/

–

Recommendations from the Show:

"RUSSIA-UKRAINE | A Real Nuclear Threat?" via Prof. James Ker-Lindsay | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mz2YcYqU7sc&t=295s

"Crimea is running out of water" via CaspianReport | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqq8clIceys

–

Previous Segments Mentioned:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KXpA6aqxt0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFiR2VX6PKQ&t=1064s

https://anchor.fm/getnuanced/episodes/A-Trip-to-Taipei-An-Overview--Strategic-Analysis-of-U-S--House-Speaker-Nancy-Pelosis-Anticipated-Visit-to-Taiwan-and-the-Ongoing-Cross-Strait-Crisis-with-Xi-Jinpings-China--JULY-2022-EDITION-e1lq5g6

https://anchor.fm/getnuanced/episodes/A-Neo-Ottoman-Foreign-Policy-in-Erdogans-Turkey---Understanding-the-Geopolitical-Situation-in-Northern-Syria-and-Ukraine---JUNE-2022-e1jvtr0/a-a50c7tb

–

CONNECT:

Main YouTube | http://youtube.com/GetNuanced

Tech Channel | http://youtube.com/TJCMN

Show Twitter | http://twitter.com/GetNuanced

Main Twitter | http://twitter.com/TJCMN

Show Instagram | http://instagram.com/GetNuanced

Main Instagram | http://instagram.com/TJC

–

#GetNuanced with TJC

To say that the current situation between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei is a crisis of world-changing significance would be a massive understatement.

With the Cross-Strait relationship between the Republic of China on Taiwan (ROC) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) being at one of its worst phases since the immediate era following the 1949 conclusion (at least when it comes to the end of military conflict on the Chinese Mainland) of the Civil War between the forces of the Kuomintang (KMT, lit: “Chinese Nationalist Party”) and the Communist Party of China (CCP), respectively.

The recent announcement of an impending, formal diplomatic envoy headed by none other than Nancy Pelosi, the current Speaker of the United States House of Representatives has sparked a blazing hot rhetorical response from Beijing and its so-called “Wolf Warrior” diplomats with fears from the Biden Administration and Policymakers from the Pentagon that this could potentially manifest in the PLA Air Force shadowing and then literally shooting down the aircraft that would be transporting Speaker Pelosi, among other high-ranking (and yet to be announced) American politicians.

In this segment today, I attempt to provide a comprehensive overview of the tensions as they have developed through the aforementioned war of words and also my personal geostrategic analysis of what is certainly a situation of critical importance if one is someone such as myself with an interest in foreign policy and international relations.

–

Articles Read & Referenced in the Podcast:

“Biden and China’s Xi to speak during tense Taiwan standoff” - via the Washington Post | https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/28/china-biden-xi-call-nancy-pelosi-taiwan/

“EXPLAINER: Why is a Pelosi visit to Taiwan causing tension?” - via the Associated Press | https://apnews.com/article/china-pelosi-taiwan-visit-explainer-fd940b681b9a4165d2ace569bbfe33fb

“How Eisenhower Saved Taiwan” - via The Diplomat | https://thediplomat.com/2015/07/how-eisenhower-saved-taiwan/

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Previous Video Segments I Produced on the Taiwan Question:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KXpA6aqxt0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFiR2VX6PKQ&t=1064s

–

***Expanded Description Coming Soon!***

–

CONNECT:

Main YouTube | http://youtube.com/GetNuanced

Tech Channel | http://youtube.com/TJCMN

Show Twitter | http://twitter.com/GetNuanced

Main Twitter | http://twitter.com/TJCMN

Show Instagram | http://instagram.com/GetNuanced

Main Instagram | http://instagram.com/TJC

–

#GetNuanced with TJC

An improved description will be implemented very soon!

Modern Türkiye (Republic of Turkey) and the Resumption of History | Understanding Erdogan's Neo-Ottoman Foreign Policy in Syria and Ukraine

Resources Referenced:

YT Video: [coming soon!]

EXPLAINER: What is behind Turkey’s Syria incursion threats? | https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-islamic-state-group-politics-middle-east-a1293989c40712ae4a789311f88bcb45

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/1/turkey-expands-military-operation-in-northern-syria

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/05/erdogans-plan-return-syrian-refugees-unlikely-succeed

Syrian Civil War Interactive Map: https://syria.liveuamap.com/

YouTube Videos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbC0Ct2E2h0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmpKP1qjSSk

With the situation getting ever more tense and confrontational --today we revisit the geopolitics of Taiwan and the ongoing cross-strait showdown between Taipei and Beijing (with external powers including Washington and Tokyo also finding themselves in the political crossfire).

Updated description for this episode and video edition coming soon!

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Recommended Resources:

"The U.S. Air Force Is Sending Dozens Of F-22 Stealth Fighters To Practice For War With China" | https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/07/20/the-us-air-force-is-sending-dozens-of-f-22-stealth-fighters-to-practice-for-war-with-china/

"China Says U.S. Trespassing in Its Airspace After Documents Sent to Taiwan" | https://www.newsweek.com/china-says-usa-trespassing-airspace-after-documents-sent-taiwan-diplomatic-spat-1609947

"In propaganda video, China threatens to nuke Japan after Japan vows to defend Taiwan" |  https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/in-propaganda-video-china-threatens-to-nuke-japan-after-japan-vows-to-defend-taiwan

"China’s navy is tipping the balance" | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dg2xmKNAZvM

=

Support the Show: https://www.gofundme.com/f/GetNuanced / http://www.patreon.com/TJC

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Stay Connected:

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[Additional information including recommended resources will be provided and is coming soon!)

Attempting to make sense of the ongoing chaos in Kabul in the aftermath of Washington's announcement that it would be fully withdrawing its armed forces from Afghanistan.

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Watch via Video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNImHZNodTk

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Overview:  

The United States Armed Forces are scheduled to be withdrawn from Afghanistan by the 31st of August 2021, concluding Operation Freedom's Sentinel and NATO's Resolute Support Mission.  

The U.S. and allied forces invaded and occupied the country in 2001 following the September 11th 2001 attacks, with the subsequent war becoming the U.S.'s longest military engagement surpassing even that then its War in Vietnam in the 20th century.  

On the 29th of February 2020, the U.S. and the Taliban signed a peace agreement titled the "Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan", with provisions including the withdrawal of all regular American and NATO troops from Afghanistan, a Taliban pledge to prevent al-Qaeda from operating in areas under Taliban control, and talks between the Taliban and the Afghan Government based in Kabul. The deal was supported by China, Pakistan, and Russia, and unanimously endorsed by the United Nations Security Council.  

The Trump Administration agreed to an initial reduction of its force level from 13,000 to a total of 8,600 by July 2020, which would then be followed by a full withdrawal by the 1st of May 2021. This was contingent on if the Taliban kept its previously stated commitments.  

The Biden Administration announced in April 2021 that it would continue the withdrawal beyond the initial deadline, with an expected completion date by the 11th of September 2021. This deadline would mark the 20th anniversary of the previously mentioned attacks that had been the initial casus belli for the U.S. / NATO Coalition Forces.  

The Biden Administration later announced that despite the withdrawal, it would keep 650 U.S. troops in Afghanistan to defend the U.S. Embassy in Kabul and defend the Hamid Karzai International Airport alongside Turkish troops.  On the 8th of July, Biden shifted the U.S. withdrawal deadline to 31 August. Despite all of this, the Department of Defense stated that the U.S. will continue airstrikes on Taliban. More content on this is to follow as the circumstances of this story continue to evolve.

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Recommended Resources:   

"Mapping the advance of the Taliban in Afghanistan" | https://news.yahoo.com/mapping-advance-taliban-afghanistan-230108412.html 

"Biden to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by September 11" | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/13/biden-to-withdraw-us-troops-from-afghanistan-by-september-11 

"THE AFGHANISTAN PAPERS: A secret history of the war" | https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/ 

"Origins of the Taliban" | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzBVvyBWDD4 

"Afghanistan sits on $3 trillion in minerals" | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9pOQioOEGg 

"China's Strategic Assessment of Afghanistan" | https://warontherocks.com/2020/04/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-afghanistan/ 

"Turkey's Erdogan says Taliban should end "occupation" in Afghanistan" | https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-taliban-should-end-occupation-afghanistan-2021-07-19/ 

"US weighs attacks if Kabul at risk of falling to Taliban: Report" | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/10/us-weighs-strikes-if-kabul-at-risk-of-falling-to-taliban-report

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Support GetNuanced:

Tip Us via Cash App: $GetNuanced

Our GoFundMe:  https://www.gofundme.com/f/GetNuanced

Patreon Community: http://www.patreon.com/TJC

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-TJC

Breaking from the usual sorts of subject matter that I often (and much prefer to) discuss, this particular segment detours into some of the recent hub-bub pertaining to the circumstances of the recent H3 Podcast hosted by Ethan Klein (aka: "h3h3Productions") in which he and Sam Seder from "The Majority Report w/ Sam Seder" (the eponymous show that he and his compatriots host) ambushed and subsequently humiliated Steven Crowder, the host and self-proclaimed "comedian" from the "Louder with Crowder" show.

As someone who tends to try and stay out of the fray of these sorts of back-and-forths, nonetheless, I figured it would actually be on this occasion the perfect segue into an op-ed I have on the broader nature of "Debate Me, Bro!" culture and why I personally am of the firm belief that regardless of which particular camp one falls in —it is still ultimately a dead end if the aim is to actually improve society and not just chase clout and reaffirm the preconceived notions of those who are observing such as myself and others who are taking the time (even if briefly) to peer into the spectacle.

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Recommended Resources:

Ethan Klein Debates Steven Crowder (Ft. Sam Seder) - H3 Podcast # 248

"OPINION: Steven Crowder Showed Why We Shouldn’t Engage With ‘Debate Me Bros’" by Ian Haworth (the article I referenced in the episode)

[more resources, including the referenced appearance I made on The Daily Wire will be added soon once I have more time to relocate it!)

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Support the Show: https://www.gofundme.com/f/GetNuanced

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Stay Connected:

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[Additional information including recommended resources will be provided and is coming soon!)