January 28, 2025

“GiveWell raised less than its 10th percentile forecast in 2023” by Rasool

1 minute

In 2023[1] GiveWell raised $355 million - $100 million from Open Philanthropy, and $255 million from other donors.

In their post on 10th April 2023, GiveWell forecast the amount they expected to raise in 2023, albeit with wide confidence intervals, and stated that their 10th percentile estimate for total funds raised was $416 million, and 10th percentile estimate for funds raised outside of Open Philanthropy was $260 million.

10th percentile estimateMedian estimateAmount raisedTotal$416 million$581 million$355 millionExcluding Open Philanthropy$260 million$330 million$255 million

Regarding Open Philanthropy, the April 2023 post states that they "tentatively plans to give $250 million in 2023", however Open Philanthropy gave a grant of $300 million to cover 2023-2025, to be split however GiveWell saw fit, and it used $100 million of that grant in 2023.

However for other donors I'm not sure what caused the missed estimate

Credit to 'Arnold' on GiveWell's December 2024 Open Thread for [...]

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

January 19th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RdbDH4T8bxWwZpc9h/givewell-raised-less-than-its-10th-percentile-forecast-in

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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