Globalism 2.0

Globalism 2.0

By globalism2 / Andrew HupertBusinessNewsEducationBusiness News
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Globalism 2.0 episodes

  • Globalism 2.0 Episode 7:  The Post Ukraine World

    In this episode, we look out into the distant future (1 year) and test a few possible scenarios that may

    • 1. Post Ukraine World. Potemkin Putin or Angry Wounded Bear?  Russia may force a regime change in Kiev,  but the fighting will continue .  One possible scenario is that Russia will be broke, Ukraine butchered – and the rest of Eastern Europe on high alert.
  • 2. China Russia, and a World United. Everyone is terrified of a potential Russia-China axis, but when China says “Russia is a strategic partner” –  it’s China’s strategy.  Big talk, but so far Russia has gotten more support from the GOP’s Putin wing than they have from Xi.   China’s strategy includes grain, energy, pipes, and access for BRI projects.
  • 3. Statist battle: How many Big Macs equal a T-14?  Official sanctions were quick, unified, severe – but expected.   But the embargo and departure of western suppliers (where the Russian population knows very little about the war).  Not just dual use technology -  beloved soft-power brands like McDonalds, Coke ,  Apple and lots more are publicly moving out of Russia.  And then of course, there’s SWIFT.
    • 30 min
  • Globalism 2.0 Ep 6: Are China and Russia still an item? He Says, Xi Says

    Globalism 2.0.  Episode 6:  When Did China Know?  He Says, Xi Says.

    In this episode:

    • Are China and Russia still an item? Yes, but it’s on the DL now. China will buy grain and energy – but no more public scenes.
  • Cybersecurity and YOU. Congratulations. You (and your company’s network) and innocent bystanders. Will fear of cyberattack kill  the beloved Work From Home?
  • Mexico gets a real union. For decades, US corporate bosses have manipulated Mexican labor laws to exploit workers – but now that may be coming to an end. Before you start cheering… where does you company produce its parts? 
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    • 22 min
  • Globalism 2.0 Episode 5: Puerto Vallarta Blues

    In this weeks edition of Globalism 2.0 – News Rules and Tools front-line managers need to stay competitive in a shifting trade environment.

    • 1. Mexico Notes. What the Great Avocado War can teach us about business, why Puerto Vallarta’s cartel presence is so disturbing, and how a new wave of labor union activism is changing the Maquiladora landscape.
  • 2. The Pink Tide, CELAC, and YOU. LAC is said to be undergoing a shift from right-wing authoritarianism to left-wing authoritarianism.  What does this mean to YOU and your competitive position in LAC.
  • 3. The Empires strike back. The US releases its revised Indo-Asia Strategy and the EU offers to bankroll Africa’s development.  Will this BRI pushback be effective?  How will it impact your business?
    • 36 min
  • Globalism 2.0  - Episode 4.  Argentina goes nuclear (with China’s help).

    1.BRI in LatAm Watch: Argentina signs up for China’s BRI program, receives a Hualong 1 nuclear reactor.  Probably an expensive one.

    2.Statism Alert:  The “New Nasa” is a private firm with strong business interests in China.  Does anyone else see a problem here?

    3.US-China Trade War:  Are Trump-era trade restrictions and tariffs being reconsidered – in favor of more restrictive, invasive regs?

    30 min
  • Globalism2.0 – Ep 2.  China and LAC  (Latin America Caribbean)

    We kick off Season 2 with a definitive answer to the big question on everyone’s mind – is China making inroads into Latin America, and will there be political or commercial push-back from the US?  Spoiler alert – Yes China is, and there undoubtedly will be some kind of reaction. 

    We also look at China as strategic competitor, using Iran as our case.

    Finally – dismal growth numbers continue to make LatAm markets look risky.  In Asia the big headline growth numbers always made us look smarter and safer.  LAC just doesn’t have the ballooning middle class that developing markets in Asia do. 

    23 min
  • Globalism 2.0 Season 2. Ep1. Welcome to Latin America. Bienvenidos

    Globalism 2.0 The Podcast is back!  This season we're coming to you from Mexico, where we've "near-shored".  This season we'll look at how LAC - Latin America & Caribbean economies are interacting with China and the US.    We continue to analyze the new global economy based on 5 Factors:

     

    1.  Fading of unchallenged US global leadership

    2.  The rise of discrete spheres of influence

    3.  TechWar (competition for control of technological standards & platforms)

    4.  Institutions are OUT, "shallow" trade agreements are IN

    5.  Statism - blurred lines between governments and corporations

    19 min
  • Episode 27: Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory
    • US trade policy used to be made in the background by fairly plugged in actors who understood the big picture.
  • Now commercial policy is another political football in the broken Thunderdome of US partisan politics.
  • Even when good decisions are accidently made, they are ad-hoc, temporary, and overshadowed by partisan rhetoric.
  • Competitors and allies alike operate under the assumption that a whole new policy initiative could be announced any week .
  • Front-line managers had best brace for more bureaucracy and adverse regulation at home while the China juggernaut continues to plow its way to broader expansion – and deeper influence.
    • www.Globalism2.com
    28 min
  • Episode 26.  Democracy on the Wane
    • Latin America has been largely overlooked by investors and major powers, but that might be changing as resources, market access and geopolitics promise a RESET for the region – with China looking to capitalize.
  • China’s OTHER global disruption project – the Digital Silk Road – will underpin the better-known Belt and Road Initiative. The Digital Silk Road is built around a digital yuan, which is a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)  If it works, China will emerge as a global financial superpower – leapfrogging incumbents in the US and Europe.  If it fails, the BRI will be rendered little more than another empty public relations scheme.
  • Democracy is in retreat in developing (and devolving) economies around the world. The rise of DINO (Democracy in Name Only) economies in SE Asia and Latin America play to China’s strengths, and put Western front line managers and negotiators at a serious competitive disadvantage.
    • 28 min
  • Episode 25: Central Asia in Play
    • The US China dispute is morphing from a trade war to a global competition for influence, alliances, markets, and resources.
  • China’s proactive, meticulously planned, all-of-country approach seems to be reaping rewards for now, as it expands its influence in SE Asia, Africa, and now Central Asia.
  • The US is still reacting with an ad-hoc collection of regulations and diplomatic scrambling.
  • The Western Cold-War mentality that government plans are by-definition inefficient and destined for failure simply doesn’t jibe with Beijing's economic and social success since the 1990s.
  • China’s biggest threat is, as it has always been, China – over-reach and hostility have doomed empires before, and may do so again. If the West is unified and open, it will be able to capitalize on any disruption in China’s growing sphere of influence. 
  • If, however, we are consumed by internal nationalistic priorities we will squander every opportunity to reclaim influence. 
    • 23 min

About Globalism 2.0

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International commerce is transforming so front-line managers have to change their approach. Covid, decoupling, the rise of China, Brexit, and a fractious US political environment are creating new…