With all eyes on the Fed’s Wednesday announcement, Neil Azous is looking at the prospect of one particular recession indicator to start the race to interest rate cuts before the end of 2023. The Sahm recession indicator considers the 12-month low for the national unemployment rate relative to a rise in the three-month average rate. The Sahm recession indicator is already flashing red in California, home to 50-million Americans and 15% of national GDP. Will the same ring true for the national economy following the July employment report? Neil hints that it will.

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Note: Any performance figures mentioned in this podcast are as of the date of recording (June 9, 2023).