Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

The poll shows that Trump won over Harris by 2 points, driving the core issues of inflation and immigration most salient to the majority of Americans. Republicans closed in on the Democratic advantage of early and mail-in voting. Voters primarily relied on TV news channels for election coverage, followed by social media, and are split on whether coverage was biased. Looking ahead to the new administration, voters are divided on perceptions of Trump but want him to prioritize tackling inflation.

“This was an election about issues, and the economy and immigration played the biggest roles. Trump won on a clear message of middle- and working-class economics,” saidMark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “But while he’s won over people up to 54% and Republicans are supportive of his policies, he has to be careful in over-projecting his mandate – underneath is still a division of the election that has not yet resolved itself.”

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The poll was conducted October 11-13, 2024, among 3,145 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. As part of the sample, 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters were also interviewed.

The new poll found that the presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with Harris leading and up 1 point from September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs.

Other key findings include:

HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES  

81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%).

Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a 2-point lead among both likely and registered voters.

There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring Harris. The gap for Latino voters has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don’t Know/Unsure: 9%).

50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in November 2020 (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).

Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%).  

14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices, including 25% of Independents.

Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%).

CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY

Trump’s perceived policy stances align more with those of the general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to women competing in women’s sports.

63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most believe Harris is against such a ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1).  

Though many voters say Harris is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the right of them.

Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump.  

CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS  

85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of Harris’ 60 Minutes interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more thinking they hurt her).  

Harris holds leads over Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest (+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter (+6).

58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA’s response to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should not have gone to housing illegal immigrants.

38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate, while 35% of voters say Tim Walz won.  

67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while 33% of voters believe they support Harris.  

APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH ECONOMY TOP-OF-MIND

Biden’s approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last three months, while 51% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President (-1 from September) and 49% approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice-President (+2).

51% of voters believe they will be better off economically under a new Trump administration, while 49% hold this belief for a Harris administration.

Inflation and immigration remain the top two national issues for voters, with 46% of voters saying inflation is most important personally (Democrat: 39%, Republican: 52%; Independent: 47%).  

61% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track, staying relatively consistent since the summer of 2022. 47% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse (rural: 57%; suburban: 48%; urban: 40%).

VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL’S STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH AND RESPONSE TO IRAN, BELIEVING IRAN IS A SOURCE OF CONFLICT AND TERROR IN THE REGION

52% of voters say Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, with 54% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters saying they are unsure.

73% of voters say Iran is a regional sponsor of terror in the Middle East and blame Iran over Israel for escalating conflict, but 53% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters say Iran is not a regional sponsor of terror.

63% of voters believe Israel is justified in responding to the recent Iranian missile attack (18-24: 45%; 25-34: 50%; 65+: 77%).

63% of voters say campus protests in the U.S. are mostly about saving lives in Gaza rather than supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.

65% of voters say authors who support Hamas and Hezbollah should not be given airtime on national TV.

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The poll was conducted September 4-5, 2024, among 2,358 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.

The new poll found that the presidential horse race now sits at 50-50. Harris' favorability and job approval ratings remain at 47%, while Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and 52% job approval rating. Voters believe Harris would do a better job on abortion, climate change, and racial equality, while Trump would do a better job on the economy, immigration, crime, and China. The poll also covers public opinion on the economy and foreign policy.

Other key findings include:

CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACES BOTH NECK-AND-NECK

The presidential horse race is tied at 50-50.

Both presidential candidates are winning their respective party bases: male (50%), white (54%), and rural (59%) voters favor Trump, while Black (71%), urban (57%), and college-educated (52%) voters favor Harris.

Independent voters are split almost evenly and 33% of them say they are still weighing their final choice.

50% of Hispanic voters say they will vote for Harris, while 43% say they will vote for Trump — only a 7-point gap. 7% of Hispanic voters say they are still unsure.

CANDIDATES ARE PERCEIVED AS WIDELY DIFFERENT ON THE ISSUES

Major differences emerged between how voters see Trump and how they see Harris on the issues. Harris is seen more often than not as favoring open borders, compassionate enforcement of laws, free healthcare to immigrants, and the switch to electric vehicles. Trump is seen as a stronger ally to Israel, harsher on China, and more of a defender of free speech on social media than Harris.

Trump is seen as favoring a national ban on abortion while Harris is seen as opposing such a ban.

49% of voters say Harris is to the left of them politically, while 50% say Trump is to the right of them politically.

LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS APPROVE OF CURRENT ADMINISTRATION

Biden approval rating stayed steady at 42% from July. Among minority voters, 66% of Black voters approve, but only 39% of Hispanic voters approve.

Less than half of voters approve of Biden's performance across all issues, with racial equity his highest (47%) and the Israel-Hamas conflict his lowest (34%).

47% of voters approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice President, with high approval from Democrats (87%), Black (71%), and urban (60%) voters.

PERCEPTIONS TOWARD ECONOMY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC

63% of voters believe the U.S. economy is on the wrong track and 62% characterize it as weak, consistent with perceptions over the past year.

42% of voters named inflation as the most important issue facing the country today, up 5 points from July.

48% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among female (53%), 55-64 year-old (55%), and rural (57%) voters.

SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS UNCHANGED; YOUNG VOTERS SEEM UNINFORMED ON VENEZUELA ELECTIONS AND MANY FAVOR MADURO

69% of voters say a ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas war should only happen after Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 84%). When asked to choose between Israel and Hamas without the choice to remain undecided, 79% continue to favor Israel while 21% favor Hamas.

71% of voters say the execution of six hostages was the fault of Hamas over that of the Israeli government.

More than half of voters have at least heard about the Venezuelan election, but 38% of voters say the Venezuelan election was not stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 25-34: 48%; ages 65+: 27%).

57% of voters say they support the protesters in Venezuela, and 60% support U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for allegations of election fraud, but 56% believe the U.S. government should not engage in another international issue.

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In this episode of the Harvard Harris Poll Debrief, Bob Cusack and Mark Penn discuss the latest political developments and polling data. The discussion centers around a dramatic shift in the Democratic presidential race, with Joe Biden stepping aside and Kamala Harris becoming the new presumptive nominee.

The Democratic Party has experienced a renewal with the selection of Kamala Harris as the candidate.

Harris has seen a significant improvement in her popularity and has the potential to win the election.

Policy and performance will be key factors in the election, with Trump having an advantage on the economy.

Attacks on Harris may focus on her progressive policies and lack of foreign policy experience.

The selection of Harris' running mate is not expected to have a significant impact on the election.

The electorate remains stable, with strong support for Israel and dissatisfaction with the economy.

(00:00) The Renewal of the Democratic Party

(01:07) The Popularity and Potential of Kamala Harris

(02:22) Paths to Victory for Harris

(05:06) The Importance of Policy and Performance

(06:25) Likability and Potential Attacks on Harris

(08:24) The Selection of Harris' Running Mate

11:00The Stability of the Electorate

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The poll was conducted June 28-30, 2024, among 2,090 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating dropped to 40%, his lowest since July 2022, while inflation and immigration remained voters’ top two concerns.

DEBATE HURTS BIDEN, HELPS TRUMP

• 74% of voters think Biden is too old to be President, an 11-point increase after the debate.
• 66% of voters have doubts about Biden’s mental fitness for office, a 12-point increase after the debate.
• Voters are on net 7 points more likely to vote for Trump after the debate and 20 points less likely to vote for Biden.

ATTITUDES TOWARD ECONOMY WORSEN

• 62% of voters characterize their personal economics as fair or poor, up 7 points from May.
• 52% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among Republican (69%) and rural (63%) voters.
• Biden’s approval on handling inflation dropped to 34%, his lowest in two years.

TRUMP CONTINUES TO LEAD HORSE RACE

• Trump leads Biden by 4 points in the horserace, down 2 points from last month.
• 41% of voters (a plurality) say Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush money case has no impact on their vote, while 31% say they are more likely to vote for Trump and 27% say less likely.
• Marco Rubio and Tim Scott are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Trump.

IMMIGRATION-CRIME NEXUS CONTINUES TO CONCERN VOTERS

• Voters say the top issues caused by mass immigration are an increase in violence/crime (57%), a strain on resources such as healthcare and education (57%), and a rise in homelessness (55%).
• 56% of voters think Biden’s recent asylum ban for migrants caught illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border is “too little, too late.”
• 52% of voters support Biden’s recent executive order aimed at expediting citizenship for the undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens.

SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL REMAINS HIGH

• 64% of voters are paying close attention to the Israel-Hamas war, down 9 points from May, but support for Israel remains consistent at 80%.
• 67% of voters say Israel should retaliate against Hezbollah until they stop firing rockets into the north (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 85%).

Download the full results here. As always, I welcome your questions and comments.

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00:00 Biden's Job Approval and Economy

03:19 Impact of Border and Immigration

05:42 Israel-Hamas Conflict and Ratings

06:39 The Challenge of Swing Voters

10:29 Crucial Presidential Debates

13:23 The Hush Money Trial and Trump's Campaign

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President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating is steady at 44%, while Donald Trump leads the horse race by 4 points. Immigration and inflation remain the top two issues for voters. 

ELECTION FUNDAMENTALS SEE LITTLE CHANGE BUT TRUMP LEAD WIDENS

• Immigration and inflation continue to be voters’ top concerns, tied at 35% each this month.
• 55% of voters believe Trump has committed crimes for which he should be convicted, but 55% say separately that they approve of the job he did as president.
• 44% job approval for Biden shows 11-point deficit in job approval compared to Trump at 55%.

AMERICANS PREFER FOCUS ON DOMESTIC RATHER THAN FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• 59% of voters say this is a time in world affairs that enables the U.S. to focus primarily on domestic issues, rather than spend more on military and foreign affairs (Democrats: 58%; Republicans: 57%; Independents: 63%).
• 58% say the U.S. does not have the leadership necessary to handle world affairs now.
• 56% support sending $26 billion in aid to Israel; 49% support sending $8 billion in aid to the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan; and 48% support sending $61 billion in aid to Ukraine.

GENERATIONAL SCHISM ON ISRAEL REMAINS SALIENT DESPITE GENERAL SUPPORT UNCHANGED

• 80% of voters say they support Israel over Hamas (ages 18-24 57% to 43%)
• 71% say the crisis in Gaza has been created by Hamas, not Israel.
• 78% say Hamas should be removed from running Gaza.
• 72% of voters believe Israel should move forward with an operation in Rafah in order to finish the war against Hamas, while doing its best to avoid civilian casualties (ages 18-24: 57%; ages 65+: 84%).
• 68% oppose a ceasefire unless it means Hamas would be allowed to continue holding hostages and running Gaza (ages 18-24: 66% still support). 70% support a “permanent ceasefire” but that support is contingent on hostage release and end of Hamas rule.
• In the context of the recent Iran attacks against Israel, 80% believe Iran must be stopped from having nuclear weapons (ages 18-24: 43%; ages 65+: 96%).

MOST AMERICANS DISAPPROVE OF UNIVERSITIES AMID CAMPUS PROTESTS

• 80% of voters believe students and professors who call for violence towards Jews should be suspended (ages 18-24: 59%; ages 65+: 92%).
• 64% believe the leaders of private higher education institutions are not doing enough to prevent antisemitism (ages 18-24: 37%; ages 65+: 80%).
• 64% believe there is a problem with what institutions of higher learning are teaching students today (ages 18-24: 47%; ages 65+: 74%).

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The poll was conducted March 20-21, 2024, among 2,111 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.  

President Joe Biden's overall approval rating remained at 45%, while 55% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's job as president. Immigration and inflation remained voters' top two concerns for the third month in a row.

Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms. 

Other key findings include: 

VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN'S STATE OF THE UNION BUT RACE NARROWS SLIGHTLY

• 52% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden's State of the Union address.
• 54% of voters, including 70% of non-watchers, think Biden did not address the issues that they and their families are concerned about in the speech.
• 53% believe Biden delivered the speech effectively.
• Trump is leading Biden by 2 points in the general head-to-head, down from 6 points last month. 20% of Independents say they are unsure.

VOTERS ARE FINE WITH "ILLEGAL" AND "UNDOCUMENTED" TERMS AS IMMIGRATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN

• 73% of voters believe it is appropriate to refer to those who enter the U.S. without permission as "illegal immigrants"; 68% believe it is appropriate to refer to them as "undocumented immigrants."
• 63% of voters have heard of the story of murdered Georgia nursing student Laken Riley and 70% believe the case shows that the U.S. needs stricter immigration policies.

TIKTOK BAN IS DIVIDED BY GENERATION, NOT PARTY

• 64% of voters believe the risks posed by TikTok to Americans' personal security and the country's national security outweigh the benefits of using TikTok for American brands and content creators (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 65+: 85%).
• 65% of voters support the bill that would ban TikTok in the U.S. if ByteDance does not sell it to a U.S. government-approved buyer (ages 18-24: 43%; ages 65+: 84%).
• Voters are most concerned about potential election interference from Russia (74%), China (73%), Iran (60%), Hamas (56%) and tech companies (51%).

ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG WITH SCHUMER CRITICIZED FOR CALL TO REMOVE NETANYAHU

• Israel continues to receive high support, 79%, against Hamas.
• 52% of voters say it was inappropriate for Senator Chuck Schumer to call for new elections in Israel to remove Benjamin Netanyahu; but 54% believe this criticism of Israel was fair.
• Netanyahu has a higher net favorable rating in the U.S. (+2 points) than Schumer (-10 points).

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Here are the findings of the February Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, which was released together with The Hill today. The poll was conducted February 21-22, 2024, among 2,022 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.  

President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating rose to 45% while his immigration approval remained at 35%, his lowest on any issue. Immigration and inflation are the top two issues for voters for the second month in a row.

Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms. 

Other key findings include: 

IMMIGRATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE FRONT AND CENTER

• Voters say Biden’s biggest failure was creating an open borders policy and a historic flood of immigrants. (Voters say Biden’s biggest accomplishment was lowering the cost of prescription drugs.)
• 62% of voters support impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, including 48% of Democrats.
• 55% of voters supported Trump’s calls to stop the Senate’s compromise immigration bill, which would have allowed 5000 migrants to enter per day until new measures kicked in.

INFLATION LOOKS STICKY TO VOTERS

• 71% of voters think price increases and inflation have proven to be sticky and are here to stay – including 58% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans.
• 45% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse – down from 64% in summer 2022.
• 42% say inflation is the most important issue to them personally, up 4 points from January.

VOTERS ARE CONCERNED BY SPECIAL COUNSEL REPORT ON BIDEN’S AGE AND MEMORY ISSUES

• 59% of voters say age and memory lapses are inadequate justification for Special Counsel Robert Hur not pursuing criminal charges in the classified documents case.
• 76% of voters, including 64% of Democrats, want the transcript of Hur’s interview with Biden to be released publicly.
• 71% of voters, including 50% of Democrats, would consider it an impeachable offense if it were true that Biden worked with his son and brother to help bring in multimillion-dollar fees from China, Russia and Ukraine while he was vice president.

TRUMP KEEPS LEAD DESPITE LEGAL CHALLENGES

• Trump beats Biden by 6 points in the head-to-head matchup.
• 57% of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president.
• 54% think the New York judge’s recent ruling that Trump defrauded state banks was fair.

ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG

• 82% of voters support Israel over Hamas (with 72% support among 18-24-year-olds, their highest percentage to date).
• 63% of voters support Israel continuing its ground invasion into Southern Gaza to root out the final elements of Hamas.

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Mark Penn and Bob Cusack breakdown the results from the January 2024 Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll. This month's word: Immigration.

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