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By Presidential Pollster Mark Penn
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The poll was conducted September 4-5, 2024, among 2,358 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.
The new poll found that the presidential horse race now sits at 50-50. Harris' favorability and job approval ratings remain at 47%, while Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and 52% job approval rating. Voters believe Harris would do a better job on abortion, climate change, and racial equality, while Trump would do a better job on the economy, immigration, crime, and China. The poll also covers public opinion on the economy and foreign policy.
Other key findings include:
CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACES BOTH NECK-AND-NECK
The presidential horse race is tied at 50-50.
Both presidential candidates are winning their respective party bases: male (50%), white (54%), and rural (59%) voters favor Trump, while Black (71%), urban (57%), and college-educated (52%) voters favor Harris.
Independent voters are split almost evenly and 33% of them say they are still weighing their final choice.
50% of Hispanic voters say they will vote for Harris, while 43% say they will vote for Trump — only a 7-point gap. 7% of Hispanic voters say they are still unsure.
CANDIDATES ARE PERCEIVED AS WIDELY DIFFERENT ON THE ISSUES
Major differences emerged between how voters see Trump and how they see Harris on the issues. Harris is seen more often than not as favoring open borders, compassionate enforcement of laws, free healthcare to immigrants, and the switch to electric vehicles. Trump is seen as a stronger ally to Israel, harsher on China, and more of a defender of free speech on social media than Harris.
Trump is seen as favoring a national ban on abortion while Harris is seen as opposing such a ban.
49% of voters say Harris is to the left of them politically, while 50% say Trump is to the right of them politically.
LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS APPROVE OF CURRENT ADMINISTRATION
Biden approval rating stayed steady at 42% from July. Among minority voters, 66% of Black voters approve, but only 39% of Hispanic voters approve.
Less than half of voters approve of Biden's performance across all issues, with racial equity his highest (47%) and the Israel-Hamas conflict his lowest (34%).
47% of voters approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice President, with high approval from Democrats (87%), Black (71%), and urban (60%) voters.
PERCEPTIONS TOWARD ECONOMY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC
63% of voters believe the U.S. economy is on the wrong track and 62% characterize it as weak, consistent with perceptions over the past year.
42% of voters named inflation as the most important issue facing the country today, up 5 points from July.
48% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among female (53%), 55-64 year-old (55%), and rural (57%) voters.
SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS UNCHANGED; YOUNG VOTERS SEEM UNINFORMED ON VENEZUELA ELECTIONS AND MANY FAVOR MADURO
69% of voters say a ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas war should only happen after Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 84%). When asked to choose between Israel and Hamas without the choice to remain undecided, 79% continue to favor Israel while 21% favor Hamas.
71% of voters say the execution of six hostages was the fault of Hamas over that of the Israeli government.
More than half of voters have at least heard about the Venezuelan election, but 38% of voters say the Venezuelan election was not stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 25-34: 48%; ages 65+: 27%).
57% of voters say they support the protesters in Venezuela, and 60% support U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for allegations of election fraud, but 56% believe the U.S. government should not engage in another international issue.
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In this episode of the Harvard Harris Poll Debrief, Bob Cusack and Mark Penn discuss the latest political developments and polling data. The discussion centers around a dramatic shift in the Democratic presidential race, with Joe Biden stepping aside and Kamala Harris becoming the new presumptive nominee.
TakeawaysThe Democratic Party has experienced a renewal with the selection of Kamala Harris as the candidate.
Harris has seen a significant improvement in her popularity and has the potential to win the election.
Policy and performance will be key factors in the election, with Trump having an advantage on the economy.
Attacks on Harris may focus on her progressive policies and lack of foreign policy experience.
The selection of Harris' running mate is not expected to have a significant impact on the election.
The electorate remains stable, with strong support for Israel and dissatisfaction with the economy.
Chapters(00:00) The Renewal of the Democratic Party
(01:07) The Popularity and Potential of Kamala Harris
(02:22) Paths to Victory for Harris
(05:06) The Importance of Policy and Performance
(06:25) Likability and Potential Attacks on Harris
(08:24) The Selection of Harris' Running Mate
11:00The Stability of the Electorate
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The poll was conducted June 28-30, 2024, among 2,090 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating dropped to 40%, his lowest since July 2022, while inflation and immigration remained voters’ top two concerns.
DEBATE HURTS BIDEN, HELPS TRUMP
ATTITUDES TOWARD ECONOMY WORSEN
TRUMP CONTINUES TO LEAD HORSE RACE
IMMIGRATION-CRIME NEXUS CONTINUES TO CONCERN VOTERS
SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL REMAINS HIGH
Download the full results here. As always, I welcome your questions and comments.
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00:00 Biden's Job Approval and Economy
03:19 Impact of Border and Immigration
05:42 Israel-Hamas Conflict and Ratings
06:39 The Challenge of Swing Voters
10:29 Crucial Presidential Debates
13:23 The Hush Money Trial and Trump's Campaign
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President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating is steady at 44%, while Donald Trump leads the horse race by 4 points. Immigration and inflation remain the top two issues for voters.
ELECTION FUNDAMENTALS SEE LITTLE CHANGE BUT TRUMP LEAD WIDENS
AMERICANS PREFER FOCUS ON DOMESTIC RATHER THAN FOREIGN AFFAIRS
GENERATIONAL SCHISM ON ISRAEL REMAINS SALIENT DESPITE GENERAL SUPPORT UNCHANGED
MOST AMERICANS DISAPPROVE OF UNIVERSITIES AMID CAMPUS PROTESTS
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The poll was conducted March 20-21, 2024, among 2,111 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.
President Joe Biden's overall approval rating remained at 45%, while 55% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's job as president. Immigration and inflation remained voters' top two concerns for the third month in a row.
Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms.
Other key findings include:
VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN'S STATE OF THE UNION BUT RACE NARROWS SLIGHTLY
VOTERS ARE FINE WITH "ILLEGAL" AND "UNDOCUMENTED" TERMS AS IMMIGRATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN
TIKTOK BAN IS DIVIDED BY GENERATION, NOT PARTY
ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG WITH SCHUMER CRITICIZED FOR CALL TO REMOVE NETANYAHU
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Here are the findings of the February Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, which was released together with The Hill today. The poll was conducted February 21-22, 2024, among 2,022 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.
President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating rose to 45% while his immigration approval remained at 35%, his lowest on any issue. Immigration and inflation are the top two issues for voters for the second month in a row.
Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms.
Other key findings include:
IMMIGRATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE FRONT AND CENTER
INFLATION LOOKS STICKY TO VOTERS
VOTERS ARE CONCERNED BY SPECIAL COUNSEL REPORT ON BIDEN’S AGE AND MEMORY ISSUES
TRUMP KEEPS LEAD DESPITE LEGAL CHALLENGES
ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG
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Mark Penn and Bob Cusack breakdown the results from the January 2024 Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll. This month's word: Immigration.
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Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Joe Biden's approval rating is 43% with slight upticks in economic sentiment. The generation gap on the Israel-Hamas war remains prevalent as 81% of all voters but only 50% of 18-24-year-olds side with Israel. The poll also covers public opinion on immigration and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here.
"There is bipartisan consensus among voters on many issues right now, from immigration and increased border security to support for Israel and Ukraine," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "The party that compromises effectively could win over swing voters who remain conflicted between different cross-pressures about the economy and the weaknesses of the leading candidates."
AMERICANS THINK THE U.S. SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH ISRAEL AND UKRAINE
VOTERS WANT MORE ACTION ON IMMIGRATION
VOTERS THINK THEY ARE WORSE OFF UNDER BIDEN ALTHOUGH VIEWS ON ECONOMY ARE TICKING UP
TRUMP MAINTAINS LEAD IN HORSE RACE WITH WIDESPREAD DOUBTS ABOUT HIM AND BIDEN
VOTERS WANT HUNTER BIDEN TO AGREE TO DEPOSITION
GENERATION GAP ON ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR EXTENDS TO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTS AND POLICIES
The December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on December 13-14, 2023, among 2,034 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
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President Joe Biden's approval rating rises slightly to 45% with slight upticks in positive economic sentiment. Israel and Biden's policy on the war continue to receive strong support as 80% of voters side with Israel over Hamas and 58% approve of Biden's policies. The poll also covers public opinion on abortion, crime and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here.
"It is easy to lose sight of how much support there really is among American voters for Israel and for President Biden staying strongly pro-Israel – although misinformation on Israel and Hamas remains prevalent, especially among younger people," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Biden's Israelpolicy could help him pick up swing voters, while the Democrats continue to win elections on abortion since they come across to swing voters as the party of personal freedom on this issue."
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TICKS UP SLIGHTLY
ISRAEL CONTINUES TO RECEIVE MAJORITY SUPPORT
VOTERS CONTINUE TO APPROVE OF BIDEN'S ISRAEL POLICY
MISINFORMATION ON HAMAS AND ISRAEL'S LEVELS OF FREEDOM AND TOLERANCE REMAINS SIZABLE AMONG YOUNG VOTERS
6-WEEK ABORTION BAN IS NOT POPULAR
AMERICANS WANT MORE LAW ENFORCEMENT AS CRIME CONCERN STAYS HIGH
TRUMP STILL LEADS PRIMARY AND GENERAL MATCHUPS DESPITE LOOMING CONVICTION THREATS
The November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on November 15-16, 2023, among 2,851 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
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