Recording of the Academy of Ideas Economy Forum discussion on Tuesday 21 February 2023. Please note that this event was recorded via Zoom and there are occasional, short-lived issues with the audio.

INTRODUCTION

Statistics for employment and earnings published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for September to November 2022 show that unemployment remains low (3.7 per cent) while the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in employment continues to hover around 75 per cent. But the number of people defined as ‘economically inactive’ – not working or seeking work – in this age group grew markedly over the course of the Covid pandemic and in its aftermath. Meanwhile, job vacancies for October to December 2022 remained well over one million, although the vacancy rate has started to decline.

As the Spectator noted in November 2022, ‘more than 20 per cent of working-age Brits are economically inactive, meaning they are neither in work nor looking for it. More than five million are claiming out-of-work benefits.’ Yet this exists alongside widespread staff shortages.

Meanwhile, unprecedented numbers of doctors, nurses and teachers are threatening to leave their jobs due to burnout. Although the unions lay the blame for this on low pay and poor working conditions, it co-exists with an oft-remarked decline in the quality of public service.

Is this a temporary phenomenon that will subside as the impact of the pandemic fades or an acceleration of existing trends? Have many people used the lockdowns as a moment to reflect about their attitude to work – and decided that if they can afford not to work, they won’t? What impact will rising living costs have on these trends? What is the impact on the UK economy of having so many working-age people not working?

SPEAKER