00:00 — Introduction
00:09 — The Betting Market for Everything
00:09 — Wrap Up
Sources:
- Prediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader (NPR): https://www.npr.org/2026/03/01/nx-s1-5731568/polymarket-trade-iran-supreme-leader-killing
- Unpacking claims Polymarket bets on Iran strikes point to insider knowledge (Snopes): https://www.snopes.com/news/2026/03/03/polymarket-bets-iran-strikes/
- Some Alleged Polymarket Insiders Made a Fortune on U.S. Strikes on Iran (Gizmodo): https://gizmodo.com/some-alleged-polymarket-insiders-made-a-fortune-on-u-s-strikes-on-iran-2000728196
- Polymarket saw $529M traded on bets tied to bombing of Iran (TechCrunch): https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/01/polymarket-saw-529m-traded-on-bets-tied-to-bombing-of-iran/
- Prediction markets draw scrutiny over Iran bets: 'Insider trading in broad daylight,' senator says (CBS News): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-khamenei-prediction-markets-insider-trading/
- Polymarket user wins $200,000 betting on date of Israeli attack on Iran (Jerusalem Post): https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-888562
- Israeli police investigate Polymarket user who correctly predicted Iran strikes (Middle East Eye): https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-police-investigate-polymarket-user-who-correctly-predicted-iran-strikes
- Polymarket (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
- Kalshi (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
- Giannis Antetokounmpo's partnership with a prediction market is the latest challenge for sports (Fortune): https://fortune.com/2026/03/01/giannis-antetokounmpos-partnership-with-kalshi/
- Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo joins Kalshi as shareholder (ESPN): https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/47853309/bucks-giannis-antetokounmpo-joins-kalshi-shareholder
- 'It's a minuscule investment' - Adam Silver defends Giannis Antetokounmpo joining Kalshi as shareholder (Yahoo Sports): https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/minuscule-investment-adam-silver-defends-093200021.html
- Prediction Markets v. State Gaming Laws: The Kalshi Litigation Gamble (Epstein Becker Green): https://www.commerciallitigationupdate.com/prediction-markets-v-state-gaming-laws-the-kalshi-litigation-gamble
- How Kalshi and prediction markets are disrupting sports betting (ESPN): https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/45377686/kalshi-prediction-markets-disrupt-sports-betting
- Prediction Markets at a Crossroads: The Continued Jurisdictional Battle Over Event Contracts (Holland & Knight): https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/02/prediction-markets-at-a-crossroads-the-continued-jurisdictional-battle
Full interactive experience at thehigheriq.com — skip between stories, test your recall, and get personalized briefings.