Is Russia Really losing

Doctorow: Russia is losing the war. Substack and Diesen show

Doctorow argument Russia is losing because:

1.Drone warfare. 10K drone operators can hold the front of 50: soldiers.

Advance impossible.

Destruction of the rear is possible.

Russia: no electricity in Crimes. No transport corridor to Crimea

Territory of Herson uninhabitable.

Oil refineries burning. Russia has to import gasoline

2.Goals of SMO not reached and not reachable.

All that may amount to Russia cannot reach its goals.

Doctorow says If it cannot reach its goals it lost the war.

Critique:

1a Drone warfare success:

Yesterday 400 drones attacked Moscow. Not one reached Moscow. 1 person killed in Moscow province. 3 eounded. 3 private houses damaged from missile debris.

Drones two types: 1 small Ukr made launched from infiltrators can ignite oil not much else.

Long range drones made in EU. RF leant to suppress and destroy those.

Geran 4: Russian optic guided drones undetectable, turbo engine not propeller, devastating on Ukr front line

Rasset satellite system. Guides Russian missiles all over Ukraine

Offensive is possible and is unfolding.

Oil shortage has been overcome now.

2 Goals of SMO unreachable?

Wrong:

Open goal is now regime change in Kiev.

Strategy has changed Because of drone warfare. It became a catalyst of change.

SO: Not hit NATO, but destroy ports. Shipping, rail, bridges, gas stations, locomotives and all miliary enterprises.

This is a weekly series of presentations on the History of Modern Russia starting with the Revolution of 1917. In this episode we consider the following questions: How to explain the sudden collapse of Nicholas II? Was that a revolution or a simple collapse of the state? What were the major political parties in Russia and what did they want ? Who were the Bolsheviks, the Mensheviks, the Socialist Revolutionaries and what was the dynamics of political struggle in 1917. Why did the politics of 1917 always escalated to the extreme demands? Why were the Bolsheviks popular. Was there an alternative to Bolshevik seizure of power? If they were so popular why did the Bolsheviks lose the first free and open universal franchise elections?

What did the Bolsheviks promise and could they fulfill their promises?

Will Zelensky Survive Defence Minister Ouster?

What we shall consider:

1Who is Fedorov?

2 What is he credited with accomplishing?

3 Fact check: Did it really work?

4 Why Zelensky ousted him?

5 Who supports Fedeov inside Ukraine and outside?

Political consequences

Coalition of the the Un-Willing (July 13 Meeting)

Macron reports highlight these priorities:

• Air and missile defense boost — More Patriot interceptors, accelerating Franco-Italian SAMP-T deployment, and advancing joint European-Ukrainian production of alternatives (including Ukraine’s FREYA system).
• Anti-ballistic cooperation — Joint development and funding for systems like FREYA (a cheaper, mass-producible Patriot analogue using Fire Point’s FP-7.X interceptors).
• Security guarantees framework — Planning for post-ceasefire measures (multinational force, monitoring, etc.), though deployment is conditional on a ceasefire.
• Longer-term military support — Sustained aid packages, training, joint production, and exercises.

Broader Coalition Commitments (from Recent Paris Declarations – Still in Force)

Is Ukraine really winning as Macron asserts? What is the political objective of this narrative? Are devastating hits on Kiev Putin's answer to that claim? Are the Russians about to attack drone manufacturers in Europe? Are we on the eve of yet another major escalation of the Ukraine war? These are some of the questions we shall discuss today. Dr. Brovkin served as an Associate Professor of Soviet History at Harvard University, he is the author of numerous books on Russian History and politics. His latest book: From Vladimir Lenin to Vladimir Putin: Russia in Search of Its identity (Routledge, London 2024) is available from Amazon and Routledge.com. In addition to Issues of Contemporary Politics playlist, you can find: Russia under Yeltsin and Putin, Russia under the Communist Regime, War in Ukraine, European History and others. THESE WERE CONVERTED TO PODCASTS AS WELL. FOLLOW me ON X TWITTER https://x.com/BrovkinVla97791. Follow me at Vbrovkin51.substack.com and listen to my podcasts at RSS.com

Putin Considers War Options

The Challenge:

New factors: 1.Long range missiles developed by UK for Ukraine. 800-900 km Ukraine is just a cover. British production

Most mainstream media assert that Ukraine is winning the war. They all refer to drone strikes on oil facilities as proof. I argue here that the West has already lost this war. Russian offensive is gaining speed and no drone deliveries to Ukraine cam stop it. Russia has an overwhelming advantage over European NATO in just about every branch of military hardware.

How did this war begin? How do the Russians regard Ukraine? Why was Putin reluctant to get into a fight? Why was Russia slow in initial phases of the war. We shall discuss these and other questions in this format of an interview with a British broadcaster.

Dr. Brovkin is an American historian of Russia, now retired, who served as an Associate professor of History at Harvard University, the author of many books on Russian history. His latest book: From Vladimir Lenin to Vladimir Putin (London. Routledge 2023) available on Amazon and other platforms.

This is the interview I gave for the British audience. The questions are all historical: Why did Putin come to power? Why did the Soviet Union collapse? Was the SU backward and in what? Why is Putin feared or hated in the West?

Two issues addressed today

Zelensky Belarus Bubble

Zelensky info war propaganda on the eve of NATO summit.

Sequence of events: relay stations threat to destroy . Zelensky "We will destroy ourselves." Putin Lukashenko meeting, Security Council Russia meeting.

Response: Belarus stands with Russia. Russia will defends Belarus,

Russian troops to enter Belarus. Unified State framework.

Many observers such as Gilbert Doctorow and others suggest that Putin is slow to respond and that his conduct of the SMO is too cautious and thus ineffective. Here I offer a different interpretation and suggest that the way the war is conducted has changed profoundly in view of the latest decisions of G7 and in view of the Ukrainian drone strikes