Hotel Analyst Podcast

Accor, IHG and Hyatt are all looking to make more strategic moves, as they eye the last benefits of post-pandemic tailwinds. Choice hotels saw market conditions weaken in the US the fourth quarter - putting its share price under pressure, as it relies on that share price to buttress its hostile bid for Wyndham. And hospitality groups have taken a new direction in seeking public listings. Gone are US SPACs, with companies in Germany, Singapore and India tapping regional investor interest.

Marriott still sees tailwinds from growing group and business bookings; Wyndham worries about the impact on its business of the Choice bid, to date reckoned at a USD75m negative impact. Meanwhile in Europe, owner Pandox and operator Scandic are looking forward to a positive year of more growth across the continent. And as pub groups shift into boutique hotels, how should hotel brands react to this quiet, but growing competitive threat?

Soho House comes under attack from a short seller - but is the business fundamentally as worthless as they claim? Hilton signals a strategy switch, arguing now is the moment to consider acquisitions in a stressed market. And the alternatives in hostels bounce back, just as new format Outsite looks to grab unloved hotels.

India’s local hotel groups are enjoying a strong economy, with growing demand, in a marketplace where there’s little prospect of much more supply in the near term. Consumer travel behaviour is changing, and more are booking directly, and more in advance. But the latest resarch also has a warning for the OTAs of new competition from the East. And third party hotel managers are looking forward to growing deal flow, bringing with it the expectation of more new properties to look after.

The world is resetting around new demand drivers, new destinations and new flying routes after the pandemic - and there are winners as well as some losers. Consumers are tilting back towards hotels and away from short term rentals, just as the regulatory noose around them appears to be tightening. And hanging out with Best Western - a cheaper, more flexible branding alternative to the big brand groups.

It’s a positive start to the new year, as consultants expect deal volume to improve - unlocking the restricted investment market. Major travel groups, including TUI, are looking to gain greater control over the hotels they sell as part of their packages. And thinking green, we’re seeing sustainability now becoming a greater part of the funding landscape, giving borrowers discounts if they hit agreed environmental targets.

A big GBP800m purchase in London by Starwood Capital has brightened the investment community - could it be the moment private equity is back in the market? Plus, a portfolio of 66 Travelodge hotels trades, with the buyer being the US owner of the Travelodge operating business. And we delve into what French group Louvre is doing - a slumbering giant in the ownership of major Chinese group Jin Jiang.

Ahead of his upcoming Hoftel conferences, CEO Simon Allison provides his thoughts on deal flow into 2024, as banks start pulling the trigger. Other big issues, debated at his events, include the shifting focus of Spanish brands and owners, aligning with bigger brands and new distribution channels; and the ambitions of Middle Eastern players are a growing influence, liable to impact other regional leisure players as new destinations gain momentum.

Hospitality looks forward to 2024 with reducing inflation, interest rates looking as though they may have peaked - will it be a happy new year? Is Indian disruptor Oyo finding its mojo once more? And Philippine brand Hotel 101 is planning global expansion, backed by fractional ownership. And greater regulation is heading for the short term rental niche - but is it overall a good thing?

Budget hotel operators are trading strongly, but where is the value-add opportunity for investors in their property assets? Consolidation plays see those in the living space broaden their appeal to both customers, and to potential investors. And, despite tough economic conditions, the mood from recent hotel conferences was a fundamentally optimistic one.