Part 1: UK-based political bettors William Kedjanyi, Paul Krishnamurty, and Pip Moss debate how long Starmer can last as prime minister.

Part 2: Chougule announces Polymarket sponsorship of DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup.

Timestamps

0:00: Chougule introduces UK segment

0:39: Polymarket markets on UK politics

1:35: Intro ends

3:36: UK segment begins

6:02: What has gone wrong for Starmer?

11:10: Starmer's communication problem

11:31: Perceptions of Starmer as a liar

11:41: Starmer is hated

17:40: Free speech

24:36: Market odds on Starmer's departure

25:23: Policy challenges

26:46: Housing

28:10: Local elections

32:50: Policy decisions

37:12: Immigration

39:30: Process After May Elections

42:14: May election odds

52:27: How Labour would remove Starmer

54:29: Blair-Brown rivalry

56:06: Trade unions

56:26: Soft left faction

1:05:52: Starmer U-turns

1:07:51: Challengers to Starmers

1:09:15: Reaction to Labour losses in May elections

1:12:30: UK segment ends

1:12:45: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

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Bet on UK politics at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

The next DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup will be on Thursday, January 29 from 6:00 PM - 9:00 PM at The Flying Mexican in Washington DC. ​

All 2026 DC meetups are sponsored by Polymarket! ​

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing you to stay informed on future events across various topics.

Polymarket's markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth. Learn more at Polymarket.com. ​

Thanks to Polymarket, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup.

Open to all ages. ​

Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Luma event page are welcomed! https://luma.com/dld19288?tk=XIracE ​

Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, and Kalshi, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. ​

This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork ​

Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv