Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that these measures sprang from “an abundance of caution.” But what was the evidence on the necessity of keeping kids home? And, looking back, did the benefits of prolonged school closures outweigh the costs?

This week, Nate interviews author and journalist David Zweig about his book examining COVID policies and school closure decisions during the pandemic. They get into why we tend to find cost-benefit analysis so difficult, how political polarization shaped decision-making during the pandemic, and how the COVID models failed.

Further Reading:

David Zweig’s book is An Abundance of Caution: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions

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Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions.

Further Reading:

From Adam Kucharski’s newsletter, Understanding the unseen: Possibly a serious possibility

From Silver Bulletin: Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved

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This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved, how do risk calculations change?

Plus, Nate and Maria recap another week at the World Series of Poker, which wouldn’t be complete without some controversy.

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Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed?

We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford.

For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.

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Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus candidate win…but, does it? Finally, they talk about Nate’s recent trip to the Manifest conference in Berkeley, and why they’ve become more skeptical of the idea that artificial superintelligence might soon transform the world.

Further Reading:

Silver Bulletin guest post by Joel Wertheimer: Can anyone beat Cuomo? And is it Zohran?

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Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy. Then, they’re joined by a Risky Business listener who gets a crash course in tournament play. Finally, they look back on their own early days at the WSOP.

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Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer a listener question about how the US government can make better decisions.

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ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they discuss Trump vs. Harvard, round two.

Further Reading:

Silver Bulletin: ChatGPT Is Shockingly Bad at Poker

Harvard Derangement Syndrome, by Steven Pinker

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We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and Silicon Valley. Also: Conspiracy theories and the NBA draft.

Further Reading:

Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House

Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again

Elizabeth Holmes’ Partner Has a New Blood-Testing Startup

The Mavs’ Cooper Flagg lottery miracle fuels conspiracy theories – and hope

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Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and how colleges and professors might be able to catch up.

Further Reading:

From New York Magazine: Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College

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Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. 

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