Nate and Maria discuss the California wildfires. How do incentives in insurance markets drive decisions by homeowners – and by insurers? What’s the best way to make rational decisions about the disaster risks we all face?

And they discuss a question from listener JM who asks what happens when the River and the Village mix it up in Washington?

Further Reading:

Colm Toíbin on the loss of Gary Indiana’s personal library in the Palisades fire

An overview of California’s insurance issues from the WSJ

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Nate and Maria share their predictions for the year to come, covering everything from the price of Bitcoin, to the fate of President Trump’s cabinet picks, to whether Nate will wear skinny jeans.

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Maria talks to her friend Henry Rich about how he’s managed to find success in one of the world’s riskiest industries: restaurants. Themes include learning from failure, accounting for ruin, and finding meaning at work.

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Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the reigning world chess champion dethroned after a surprising choke, they discuss how they deal with high-stakes situations.

Risky Business will be off next week. We’ll be back with a new episode on 1/2/25. Happy New Year!

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What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards show. Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024.

Then, they give a quick poker update and answer a listener’s question about the expected value of learning multiple languages.

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Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season.

By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm PST on 12/11 at the Bellagio poker room in Las Vegas. RSVP to attend

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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It's the season of giving: colorful paper and shiny bows, sure, and charitable giving, too. In this special episode, Jacob Goldstein, the host of What's Your Problem, gets smart about donating.

Did you know that spending money on others makes you happier than spending money on yourself? Or that altruistic nerds have discovered four of the most impactful charities in the world (per dollar spent)? Have you ever wondered how poker players think about giving?

Dr. Laurie Santos from The Happiness Lab, Elie Hassenfeld of GiveWell, and Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova from Risky Business talk about how to maximize your giving – and why you’ll be happy you did.

Link to donate: https://givingmultiplier.org/happinesslab

Listen to The Happiness Lab with Dr. Laurie Santos

Listen to Risky Business

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Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made.

Then, Maria breaks down a scandal in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that have led researchers to make bad decisions.

Do you have a topic or theme you’d like Nate & Maria to discuss in a future episode? Reach out to us at [email protected] with any suggestions.

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Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them.

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Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event. 

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