Two weeks into his trade war, Donald Trump has made at least a few tactical retreats, and markets have stabilized a bit as a result. Are we just in the eye of the storm? Or is it possible the economic fallout from the trade war won’t be as severe as we feared on LIBERATION DAY?

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Why did markets recover significantly (though not entirely) from the big sell off after Trump launched the trade war?

* Who has a better read on the harm Trump is likely to do to the United States and its economy, traders or Democrats?

* Even in a least-bad case scenario, isn’t Trump setting himself up to absorb more economic blowback than Joe Biden did for presiding over a year of moderate inflation?

Then, behind the paywall, how can Democrats hedge against the possibility that public opinion won’t do all their political work for them? Between Trump violating court orders, and Democrats facing greater threats of violence, how likely are we to lose democracy well before the midterm elections? What if anything can Democrats do to keep the rule of law intact enough to have a fair shot next November? What kinds of candidates should they recruit to maximize their odds of retaking power, even if the economy doesn’t collapse?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt on the trade-deficit myths driving Trump’s economic self-sabotage.

* Brian on how House Democrats can exploit the rules to run down the clock and draw attention to the assault on democracy, and growing momentum for resistance.

* Democrats plan a fact-finding trip to the CECOT gulag in El Salvador.

Last week, in one fell swoop, Donald Trump wiped out trillions of dollars in wealth, upended all of our trade relations, and poised the U.S. for a lengthy recession and higher prices. His big money backers are in freakout mode. He’s made himself politically vulnerable in dramatic fashion, but also undermined the foundations of the American age.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss life with (and after?) Trump’s tariffs:

* How the fuck did Trump’s billionaire backers get this so catastrophically wrong?

* Is Trump looking for an offramp, where he “negotiates” away these tariffs in exchange for symbolic victories, or are they here to stay?

* How does uncertainty around that question exacerbate damage to the economy economic?

Then, behind the paywall, where, if anywhere, do we go from here? Are Democrats handling the situation optimally, in both legislative and messaging contexts? Would it even matter all that much if Congress revoked presidential tariff authority, now that the whole world sees us as erratic and untrustworthy? Is there a path back to an American-led global economic order, or are we just permanently poorer?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian on what it would look like to really reverse America’s Trump-induced collapse.

* Matt’s 29 thoughts on Liberation Day™️.

* Josh Marshall on how all power is unitary.

There are signs of life in the Democratic Party, and if Republicans continue to badly underperform in special elections, the vibes could shift. But there are some things even a robust opposition can’t really stop, when a president claims autocratic power, and is insulated from normal political considerations

After a brief discussion of Cory Booker’s filibuster, and the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, Matt and Brian discuss the unitary executive theory. Specifically:

* What is the unitary executive theory?

* Is a rogue presidency really what Republicans had in mind when they concocted this theory a few decades ago?

* Would adverse court rulings establishing an all-powerful, unaccountable executive mean the end of Fed independence, and a ruined economy?

Then, behind the paywall, are there any legitimate reforms to our political system that would be both wise and make the government more responsive to election outcomes? Is there any circumstances under which this kind of king-like presidency would not devolve into criminality and corruption? Will any constitutional checks remain if the Supreme Court grants Trump’s unitary executive claims, or will it be entirely up to the masses?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* One way to weaken Trump’s executive would be to rescind his tariff authority.

* The long tail of law firms caving to Trump’s lawless threats.

* Pramila Jayapal’s Resistance Lab.

Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats continue to catch hell from their own voters for caving in the government shutdown fight. But in the coming days, perhaps sooner than most people are expecting, Congress will have to increase the debt limit. And once again, Democrats will have to decide whether and how to use their votes to rein in an out-of-control GOP.

After some quick observations about the Trump administration’s snowballing Signal Scandal, Matt and Brian discuss and explain:

* What happens, as far as we know, if the U.S. government runs out of borrowing authority;

* Whether DOGE has made a default crisis more imminent by crippling the IRS (and, thus, revenue collection);

* How Democratic leaders should seize control of this story now, and make their demands clear, before the deadline is at hand and Republicans beat them to the punch;

* Why articulating their demands up front might help them avoid the trap of caving to Republican pressure.

Then, behind the paywall, what should those demands be? It isn’t certain that Republicans will need Democratic votes to increase the debt limit. But if they do, should Democrats use their leverage to stave off the Republican threat to Medicaid? Or would they better off focusing on the issues like DOGE and Trump administration lawbreaking that were at issue in the aborted shutdown fight?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* How the Trump administration texted Jeffrey Goldberg its war plans.

* Brian’s 19 thoughts on the Signal scandal.

* Donate to Susan Crawford.

* Join the Tesla Takedown movement.

* Elon Musk and the payment system.

Donald Trump is becoming unpopular, but Democrats are more unpopular than they’ve ever been, reflecting not just Republican voter partisanship, but the fact that tens of millions of Democratic voters are fed up with their party’s conduct in the aftermath of the election. With partisan anger boiling over, calls for Chuck Schumer to resign from leadership, and constitutional crises on our doorstep, Matt and Brian discuss:

* How did Democrats in Congress bungle the politics of funding the government so badly?

* Will they have another bite at the apple when it’s time to raise the debt limit, or has the ship full of apples sailed?

* Given mediocre Democratic congressional performance in 2024, and little prospect of winning the Senate in 2026 (absent a generational Trump-induced crisis) what’s the argument for Schumer to keep his job?

Then, behind the paywall, a lot of yelling. Are Democrats playing too much protect-defense under dire circumstances? Should leaders like Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries be focused entirely on 2026 election politics, or are the moral stakes of Donald Trump’s authoritarian takeover threat severe enough to adopt a less cautious, feistier, more procedurally aggressive posture? Is the Politix synthesis of Yglesias-style policy moderation and Beutler-style procedural hardball the sweet spot for the party in the Trump era?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt’s sigh of relief that Schumer prevented the shutdown.

* Brian argues that if Democrats aren’t going to pick big fights that might move public opinion, and leave everything to the courts, they should probably lay some political groundwork for whenever Trump decides he can ignore court rulings.

* Donate to Susan Crawford.

* Join the Tesla Takedown movement.

* Proposition: “We're gonna get a lot of primary challengers with the issue positions of 2013 Barack Obama and a burning, unhinged desire to put Republicans in jail.” Would this be good or bad, and would it win or lose?

By the time this episode runs, we’ll be two days from the deadline to fund the government. And if Republicans get there act together juuuust a bit, Democrats will have to decide if and how to wield their leverage to the end of forcing the Trump administration back into compliance with the rule of law.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Can Democrats hold out indefinitely, if Donald Trump refuses to faithfully execute the law, and win the politics of a government shutdown with the voting public?

* Can they wield the filibuster power to at least strip the funding bill of special goodies House Republicans added to unify their members?

* What would represent Democrats standing firm, and what would could as a betrayal of their constituents?

Then, behind the paywall, does the rapidly deteriorating economy change the equation at all? Does it give Democrats leverage to align against a clean funding bill, given that Trump has only been able to damage the economy so badly because he’s abused his economic powers? And what can Democrats at the state level do, short of encouraging Tesla vandalism, to make Trump and Musk feel pain for their dereliction of duty?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian argues that Democrats need to be prepared not just to blame Trump for economic turbulence, but to prebut all the lies he’ll tell about it.

* Matt says Democrats should learn from Trump’s economic failures, and re-embrace conventional economics.

* “Tesla faces vandalism and protests amid backlash” 🎻.

Just six weeks into his presidency, Donald Trump has dragged the country to the brink of recession. He’s become unpopular, lost the public’s trust to handle the economy, and hollowed out the government in risky ways. So in his first speech to Congress, Trump: blamed all of it on Joe Biden, subjected Democrats to a torrent of abuse, lied about Social Security (among many other things), and redoubled his commitment to tariffs, even if they cause “disturbance.”

In this free post-address episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Was this speech worse (that is, more dishonest, defamatory, etc.) than his first-term State of the Union addresses?

* Does his dishonest and degrading style simply make him less popular, or is there a method to it?

* What’s the endgame of seeding a bunch of lies about Social Security—a program he’s promised never to cut, and doesn’t have the votes to cut anyhow?

* Would Democrats have served themselves better by boycotting the speech or having another party-wide plan to convey their contempt for and total lack of confidence in Trump?

Plus: Elon Musk, Elissa Slotkin. William McKinley

To our free subscribers: Thanks for listening. We hope you’ll stick around, and consider upgrading to a paid subscription.

Even in the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Americans thought Donald Trump was a good steward of the economy. This misplaced faith has been key to his political durability. But after just one month of indiscriminately firing federal workers, illegally reneging on federal spending commitments, and making erratic threats to tariff the bejesus out of our trading partners, his economic approval has fallen under water. So what’s going on?

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Are people really just annoyed that Trump has ignored the price of eggs and other staple goods?

* Is it that by mistreating people and crippling important services, he’s created an unflattering news environment that has soured people on him generally?

* Or might he have actually tipped the economy into recession at lightning speed?

Then, behind the paywall, why does the explanation matter? Did Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries happen to land on exactly the right strategy to oppose Trump in his second term? If people are actually mad about the cruelty and lawlessness, does it suggest Democrats should shift their focus from egg trolling to forcing Trump back into regular order?And to that end, are Democrats prepared to force a confrontation over the rule of law as the deadline to fund the government approaches?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian on why losing popularity so quickly puts a big dent in Trump’s plan to become an autocrat.

* Matt on how foreign leaders on the receiving end of Trump’s tariff’s threats can exploit this weakness by calling his bluff.

* The perils of the Trump-GOP plan to cut Medicaid.

Explaining the GOP’s rapid slide into authoritarianism is complicated, but you can’t tell the story if you don’t understand that Republicans have been unwilling to abandon huge, unpopular tax cuts for the rich as an organizing principle. In their view of things, if popular majorities don’t support regressive tax cuts, then democracy has to go. So it’s no surprise that last week House Republicans published its blueprint for special legislation that would cut taxes by many trillions of dollars, and partially make up the cost through enormous cuts to Medicaid.

In this episode, Matt and Brian (who used the wrong mic like an asshole) discuss:

* Why Democrats are so eager for Republicans to shift emphasis from attacking the civil service and the rule of law to advancing huge tax cuts for the rich.

* Can Republicans, with their small Senate majority and tiny House majority, actually pass anything significant

* Have they convinced themselves that there’s never a big political downside to cutting rich people’s taxes?

Then, behind the paywall, why that assumption is more likely than usual to blow up in their face. How many people would lose their health insurance if Republicans cut $2 trillion from Medicaid? How dramatically would trillions of dollars in (mostly deficit-financed tax cuts increase inflation? If Republicans have doomed themselves no matter what (either they cause economic harm, or they abandon their legislative agenda), why don’t Democrats train more of their focus on the unfolding constitutional crisis, before Republicans succeed at wiping out constitutional government.

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt on the disconnect between Donald Trump’s aggressive power-grabbing and his party’s legislative incompetence.

* Real-world consequences of the Trump-Musk assault on the work force are really bad.

* The famous George H.W. Bush-Bill Clinton exchange on the real world impact of federal debt.

* We’re rationing eggs now.

Donald Trump and Elon Musk are now on the receiving end of multiple court orders requiring them to rein in their constitutional crime spree: resume impounded payments, destroy improperly downloaded government data, restore regular government communications. Their response, as of this recording, has been to see how contemptuous they can be of the orders, and musing openly about outright defiance.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* What, specifically, precipitated this legitimation crisis?

* If the Trump administration’s announces it will disregard district court orders, is it time to take to the streets?

* Is Kendrick Lamar likelier to shatter the MAGA coalition than professional Democrats?

Then, behind the paywall, how well, if at all, are Democrats responding to the prospect of a completely lawless presidency? Should they be more plainspoken about how they will use their power to restore the rule of law? If Trump will ignore district court orders enjoining his efforts to impound money, will he also ignore them if he tries to spend money absent a congressional appropriation?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt on why there are many, many better forms of resistance than doomscrolling.

* Brian argues a crisis like this is the right time for Democrats to sideline over-cautious, elections-oriented consultants, and listen to people who know how to put down coup attempts.

* Cass Sunstein on the high price of ignoring the social cost of carbon. (Trust us, it’s relevant.)