Politix

Gotta hand it to Donald Trump, he got the Epstein Files and the January 6 anniversary off the front page, and all it took was a wee little war, plus a threat to conquer the whole hemisphere

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* WTF?

* How has this destabilized the globe?

* Can the damage be undone?

* What’s the right political response, and who in the Democratic Party has risen to the moment?

Then, a review of Tim Walz’s late career, and the welfare-fraud spree that did him in. How well or poorly does early Democratic enthusiasm for Walz as veep hold up? Did he do the right thing by resigning, or should he have been more defiant? Is it at all sustainable that our political system holds the parties to such wildly different standards of integrity and competence? And what should Democrats do to even the playing field?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Will Sommer on right wing divisions over Trump’s Venezuela war.

* New York Times, 2017: “Before taking office, Mr. Trump told top aides to think of each presidential day as an episode in a television show in which he vanquishes rivals.”

* New York Times, 2025, on the scope of the Minnesota fraud.

* Brian’s 30 thoughts on the Venezuela war.

* Matt’s early assessment of Walz.

It’s that time of year again. Self-indulgent mailbag time. Thanks to all who sent questions, and apologies to those who didn’t get answers.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Whether Gavin Newsom is doomed to become yesterday’s news;

* Why there’s never been a better time to tax rich people;

* How (and if) liberals can coexist politically with authoritarians in a two-party democracy.

* What, if anything, the Biden people told themselves about the Epstein files?

Then, what’s the bull case for A.I., where we look back from 10 or 20 years on and feel like the transition, and all the resources society poured into it, were worthwhile? Would Pat Buchanan have won in 2016 on Donald Trump’s platform? And how do a couple middle-aged coastal-elite squares keep in touch with the common man—and the youth of the nation?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt on how we all deserve a stake in the financial upside of A.I.

* Brian on why Merrick Garland deserves our contempt.

* Senator Barack Obama at the launch of the Hamilton Project.

Donald Trump suddenly faces defections in Congress, from right-wing influencers, and even from his own White House chief of staff.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Susie Wiles’s…intemperate comments to Vanity Fair about all the incompetents and cynics in the Trump administration;

* The challenge of passing the cult following from Trump to JD Vance (or anyone else for that matter).

* Why Republican disarray has spread beyond health care.

Then, the particularly pitched blowback Trump has faced for pissing on Rob Reiner’s grave. Are we seeing the MAGA alliance crack up? Or are his internal critics limiting themselves to the safe zone of commenting only on Trump’s insensitive social-media posts? And why does the Democratic Party’s strategic outlet turn so heavily on the answers to those two questions?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt on the Trump-Vance succession.

* Brian’s somewhat more optimistic view on the Trump-Vance succession.

* Politicize (Trump’s reaction to) Rob Reiner’s murder.

* The Susie Wiles profile.

Donald Trump is suddenly mired in a huge war-crimes scandal, complicating his desire to launch an actual war (also illegal) against Venezuela.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* All the things that make the circumstances surrounding the order to murder shipwreck survivors so strange and suspicious;

* How it all gels with Trump’s broader, corrupt foreign policy;

* Whether the so-called Seditious Six Democrats, who first elevated the issue of illegal orders, laid a trap for Trump.

* Also, is Pete Hegseth doomed?

Then, what’s all that got to do with the midterms? Did left-wing politics doom Democrats in last week’s Tennessee special election? Was the outcome there actually bullish for Democrats? Could it be both things at once? And why is the Democratic establishment really so up in arms about Jasmine Crockett entering the Texas Senate Democratic primary?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Todd Zwillich on what Democrats in Congress did (and didn’t) know about Trump administration war crimes before they made a ruckus about it.

* Matt on the bizarre march to war with Venezuela.

* Brian on the problem of the missing antiwar movement.

Brian is adventuring in South America, so Matt is joined by Lakshya Jain of The Argument and Split Ticket to talk about his Wins Above Replacement calculations, which politicians are good at winning, and what we know about them.

In the episode, Matt and Lakshya discuss:

* The importance of “downballot lag” in assessing candidate quality.

* Why AOC and Ritchie Torres are both overrated by their fans.

* While highly viral members of congress tend to underperform, while many electoral superstars are relatively anonymous.

Then, for paid subscribers, what can really be learned from Zohran Mamdani, a politician who won a difficult race despite being less popular than many of the people he bested in his primary? What’s the point of identifying over performing politicians in the first place? What’s Rashida Tlaib doing right?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Donald Trump has lost his grip, and it’s making him prone to a variety of political errors, some of which we enjoy with pure schadenfreude, others of which could cause tremendous collateral damage.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* What if anything makes Marjorie Taylor Greene’s early exit from the House of Representatives different from past Trump purges?

* Why did he blow up his party’s big plan to make Zohran Mamdani the face of the Democratic Party?

* How on Earth does it make sense for him to pick a fight with, and try to court martial, an extremely popular astronaut war hero?

Then, for paid subscribers, should we be careful what we wish for? After blowing the vindictive prosecutions of James Comey and Letitia James, should Mark Kelly put himself in harms way and demand his day in military court? Should Democrats be even bolder and clearer about Trump’s general commitment to illegal conduct, and his the specific illegality of his policy toward Venezuela? Is he really just going to blunder us into a destabilizing and terribly unpopular war there?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian notes that MAGA disarray will paradoxically make Trump and his loyalists more determined to mount a coup d’etat.

* Matt argues against the Strange New Respect on the left for Marjorie Taylor Greene.

* Brian’s conversation with Pat Dennis about public opinion formation.

Donald Trump’s Epstein coverup has faltered. Jeffrey Epstein’s estate has produced tens of thousands of emails implicating scads of U.S. elites, Trump foremost among them, but including famed economist Larry Summers and other prominent Democrats. Meanwhile, Congress has now voted overwhelmingly to compel the Justice Department to release its Epstein case files.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* What do the recent disclosures actually reveal?

* What the fuck Larry Summers?! And, also, ew!

* Should erstwhile Summers allies throw him under the bus, even though he’s announced his withdrawal from public life?

Then, for paid subscribers, what now? Will Trump sign the Epstein disclosure bill without delay? If so, how will he endeavor to obstruct disclosure once it becomes law? Is the evidence in the case file safe from tampering or destruction? And why has this issue, rather than tariffs or health care or even war in Venezuela, the one that has blown the coalition wide open? (Hint: It has something to do with all the antisemites in MAGA).

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian argues Dems should lean into Epstein politics at least as hard as party strategists want them to lean into “affordability.”

* Matt argues moderation shouldn’t be synonymous with throwing a winning hand—possibly relevant to forthcoming Epstein politics.

* Emily Catalano on Epstein truthers coming full circle.

After notching huge victories in last week’s off-year elections, Senate Democrats were overcome by a failure of nerve, and agreed to reopen the government without restoring anyone’s health insurance or securing any legal mechanism to rein in Donald Trump’s lawlessness

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* What the fuck?

* Why did the standoff end the way it did?

* How could the eight capitulators plus Chuck Schumer have engineered a better outcome, whether it brought the shutdown to an end or not?

Then, for paid subscribers, how will the recriminations play out inside the party? Could it feed a constructive conversation about what a better opposition party might look like? Will they put up any resistance at all when the next deadline looms at the end of January? Are memories long enough that the cave might have an impact on the 2026 midterms? Will Trump interpret this as a mandate to use the infliction of pain to bend Democrats? Or will we all move on when the House votes to release the Epstein files?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian has 16 thoughts on the surrender.

* Matt only has 13.

* Chris Murphy’s interview with Punchbowl.

It was a night of blowout victories in elections for Democrats and Democratic causes across the country, significantly surpassing the party’s most optimistic expectations. In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* What, if anything, do the margins, and the nature of the sweep, tell us about the politics today;

* How compatible are these results with a Democratic Senate victory in 2026?

* Why “Democrats should moderate” and “Democrats need to fight harder” takesters both had good nights.

Then, for paid subscribers, will frontline Democrats really continue to be afraid of fighting Trump after tonight’s results? Didn’t the revived resistance widen the party’s margins? Shouldn’t this help Democrats across the board? And if so, why do news reports suggest Senate Democrats might yield in the government-shutdown fight, even though they appear to be winning it?

Further reading:

* Matt writes there’s more to politics than what happens in the four-corners of a campaign.

* Brian on why the Democrats’ biggest liability has been the scourge of wimpiness.

* Brian’s July piece asking what Democrats intend to do if they win the midterms?

Even some of Donald Trump’s own voters were shocked to see he summarily demolished part of the White House, surprising many Democrats who had convinced themselves Trump is teflon and people don’t care about his corruption or vulgarity. In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* The long history of politicians not doing stuff like this, fearing political backlash;

* Whether this episode suggests swing voters can be moved by symbols and appeals to American greatness, or whether this, too, is a distraction from the issues that really matter;

* What other corruption scandals Democrats might drag into the partisan fray, now that the middle of the country is wising up to Trump’s let-them-eat-cake greed, at the expense of normal citizens.

Then, for paid subscribers, if Trump’s recent political troubles stem from shocking images of the East Wing reduced to rubble, what else in politics is an artifact of media effects? Are Democrats lucky that Trump is so venal and lawless, because Americans would otherwise be highly supportive of how he governs? Or does he mostly get a pass on corruption (because Democrats want to focus on issues) while Republicans invest billions of dollars to define Democrats as out-of-touch wackos?

Further reading:

* Brian on a Democratic-friendly way to make Trump pay for his corruption, now that it’s breaking through.

* Matt: It’s all about policy, including (maybe particularly?) immigration.

* A nerd-off between Biden alums who think their biggest mistake was not creating enough winning ideological conflict and outside strategists who think Democrats earned their toxic unpopularity fair and square.