After months of resistance, President Trump made a striking reversal on the Epstein files this week, signaling he would sign legislation to release them. Nate and Maria discuss whether this is the start of a “lame duck” spiral for Trump, and whether (or to what extent) it will impact his tenure if the files do finally come to light.

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Humanity’s attempts to achieve artificial superintelligence will be our downfall, according to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. That’s the new book out by AI experts Nates Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky. And while their provocation may feel extreme in this moment when AI slop abounds and the media is hyping a bubble on the verge of bursting, Soares is so convinced of his argument that he’s calling for a complete stop to AI development.

Today on the show, Nate and Maria ask Soares how he came to this conclusion and what everyone else is missing.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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Despite a blue wave in recent state and local elections, Senate Democrats caved to Republican demands on the shutdown, giving up the health care subsidies they started the shutdown over nearly 50 days ago.

Nate and Maria argue that the Democrats are squandering their momentum, and discuss the consequences for key figures like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. They also reflect on the election of Zohran Mamdani, the Mayor-Elect of New York City, and talk about the difference between campaigns and reality.

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From social media and dynamic pricing to meme stocks and AI hype, gamification has taken over our lives—and a recent op-ed argues that it’s even spread into our economy, driven by Trump. Nate and Maria discuss the psychology behind the “casino economy” and why speculation and risk are so addicting. They talk about what it means when governments, businesses, and individuals lean into risk even as buffers against bad bets shrink—and why it’s easy not to object until it’s already too late.

Further Reading:

From the New York Times: It Is Trump’s Casino Economy Now. You’ll Probably Lose

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With traffic down, gambling down, and hotel prices bottoming out, everyone’s asking: Is Las Vegas dead? Nate and Maria wade into the frenzy with some real data and hard-won experience. They talk about why casinos are struggling, what this indicates for the broader economy, and why high-end steak houses are, in fact, a recession indicator.

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Last week, two federal indictments and several high-profile arrests rocked the NBA. One indictment accused defendants of sharing insider information to cheat at sports betting, and the other accused over 30 co-conspirators, including members of various mafia families, of rigging poker games.

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Nate and Maria sit down with the elite amateur runner Nicholas Thompson (who also happens to be the CEO of The Atlantic) to talk about his new book The Running Ground. They discuss what running can teach about productivity and fulfillment, his favorite brand of gels, and…his late-father’s brothel in Bali.

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We have a special episode for you today! In which Nate and Maria join their fellow Pushkin hosts to dive deep into the art of failure.

Tim Harford of Cautionary Tales shares stories of minor mistakes with massive consequences. Jonathan Goldstein of Heavyweight speaks with his friend, the writer Sheila Heti about the cost of mistakes and whether we're really in control of how many we make. And, our very own Nate and Maria give a gambler's take on the strange science of regret.

Cautionary Tales and Heavyweight are available wherever you get your podcasts.

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Over the weekend, some 5 million people across the United States marched in ‘No Kings’ protests. Nate and Maria sit down to talk about why this matters, the psychology of protests, and how Democratic strategists can build on the momentum going forward.

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The 2025 Nobel Prizes have now been announced, and Maria convinces Nate to learn about the winners. They discuss the selection process, the economic award for research on “creative destruction,” and what prizes they should be considered for.

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