Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Nate and Maria discuss how and when the government shutdown is most likely to end. Then, they turn to OpenAI’s newest release: Sora 2, an AI video generation app that allows users to create a video from a text prompt. As Maria struggles to think of some possible positive uses for this app, Nate considers what its release tells us about Open AI's goals for the future.

From The Information: Why OpenAI Offered to Pay $500 Million For A Startup With Videogame Data

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Nate and Maria discuss their favorite topic: poker! In this episode, they dive into the nuanced strategy of online poker: how to manage your schedule, how to prioritize information, and whether quantity trumps quality as you strive to improve.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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Eric Adams is out of the NYC mayoral race! Nate and Maria discuss his tenure as mayor, the timing of his announcement, and what this means for the remaining candidates. And — because it can be hard to remember a time before his multiple scandals and single-digit polling — they talk about the enthusiasm that once surrounded Adams, and what that arc says about the Democratic leadership vacuum. (And yes, they talk about Nate’s tweet).

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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The NBA is investigating the LA Clippers and team owner Steve Ballmer over allegations that star player Kawhi Leonard accepted a $28 million endorsement as a way to get around the league’s salary cap. The endorsement deal was with the now-defunct sustainable banking company Aspiration—a company in which Ballmer has invested. Nate and Maria talk about whether Ballmer tried to take a page out of the mob playbook, and how the league could deter this kind of behavior in the future. 

Plus: Nate and Maria discuss a report from the Citizens Budget Commission that claims that New York’s share of millionaires is falling—and with it, the potential for revenue generation from taxes.

Further Reading:

From Pablo Torre Finds Out: Kawhi Leonard Signed a Secret $28M Deal. Steve Ballmer Funded a Fraud. We Followed the Money.

Citizens Budget Commission Report: The Hidden Cost of New York’s Shrinking Millionaire Share 

From the New York Times: New York Needs More Millionaires, Fiscal Watchdog Says”

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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Disney briefly pulled Jimmy Kimmel off the air last week for comments he made about Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer, after FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened action against Disney and ABC. But this is not the first time the government has tried to censor the media: Maria walks us through a brief history of presidents trying to limit what the press says. Then, Nate and Maria discuss whether cancel culture led us to this particular moment.

Read Nate’s newsletter post, The political mood feels like 9/11 again

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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It’s our first Saturday drop! Nate and Maria host former assistant US Attorney Elie Honig to discuss his new book, a brisk history of special counsels — plagued by politics, checked by presidents, declawed under Trump’s second term — and why rescuing the office matters.

Find Elie’s book here: When You Come At The King

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Nate and Maria share their reactions to last week’s assassination of conservative organizer and activist Charlie Kirk, who died after sustaining a gunshot wound at a speaking event on a Utah campus.

Then, they debate the Democrats’ strategy as a government shutdown looms — and Nate says what he would do if he were Chuck Schumer.

NOTE: Risky Business will now be in your feeds twice a week, on Wednesdays and Saturdays. We will be pausing bonus content for the time being, but premium subscribers still get ad-free access to the entire Pushkin network.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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Tesla has offered CEO Elon Musk a package worth $1 trillion to stay at the helm of the company — if he can hit a series of very ambitious goals. All of this comes in the midst of a serious dip in performance at the company, with stock falling 16% this year (partly as a result of Musk’s controversial moves on the world stage). So this week, Nate and Maria play armchair quarterback in a game of Good Call / Bad Call.

Then, they cut through the chatter over a modern masculinity crisis and get into the data. Is there really a crisis among men? Is it better to be a woman in 2025?

Further Reading:

Boy Crisis of 2025, Meet the ‘Boy Problem’ of the 1900s from NYT

The ‘Boy Crisis’ Is Overblown from NYT

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Nate is on vacation this week, so Maria is joined by journalist David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene and Range. They talk about a new company that offers comprehensive genetic sequencing on embryos during the IVF process—at a high price. What are the ethics of this kind of technology? And what are the risks (and rewards) of trying to optimize your child’s genes? Plus, they discuss a topic they’ve been texting about for years: Does your name determine who you become?

Further Reading:

You can find more about David and his writing on his website, https://davidepstein.com/.

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This week, Maria interviews reality TV legend Boston Rob. Rob has been on Survivor six times, and has also appeared on The Amazing Race, The Traitors, and Deal or No Deal Island. He’s a master strategist with a psychology background. He and Maria discuss how to build trust strategically in a competitive environment, how to read your opponents’ motivations, and why it’s so important to play to win.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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