Star Spangled Gamblers

Superforecaster and conservative writer Stevie Miller (@zagrebbi) explains who the Groypers are and why they are campaigning against Vivek Ramaswamy.

Timestamps

0:25: Groypers

1:22: Disclaimer

3:58: Interview begins

4:40: How Miller and Chougule met

5:04: Curtis Yarvin

10:57: Intellectual influence in Washington

11:39: Manifest conference

12:32: Miller's involvement with forecasting

14:02: Public intellectuals

16:39: Miller transfer to Columbia

17:24: Ramaswamy's primary win

19:16: Casey Putsch

21:46: Groypers

21:55: Streaming

23:16: Alleged cancellation of Fuentes

24:57: Fuentes at Boston University

31:09: Chris Brunet

31:31: narrative of persecution

31:53: Fuentes as self-made outsider

34:46: Fuentes-Dinesh D'Souza debate

37:30: Ben Shapiro

39:58: Changing conservative audiences

40:12: Tucker Carlson

41:29: Fuentes mentions of Miller

42:46: Bronze Age Pervert

43:17: Fuentes's anti-semitism

45:00: Ben Shapiro in college

45:58: The Right Stuff

47:29: Fuentes's anti-Zionism

49:14: Fuentes's opposition to GOP

50:33: Fuentes's on Newsom

54:05: Fuentes's anti-Indianism

55:09: Fuentes's Catholic worldview

57:28: Fuentes's social conservatism

58:27: Fuentes's populism

1:01:23: Fuentes's working class worldview

1:01:59: Fuentes's views on economic policy

1:04:38: Fuentes's opposition to Trump

1:14:08: Ohio governor race

1:15:23: Why Groypers are upset with Ramaswamy

1:17:27: High-skilled immigration

1:22:59: Groyper impact on Ohio governor race

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X: @ssgamblers

Trade on the Ohio Governor Race at Polymarket US, https://polymarket.us/event/usgub-oh-2026-11-03

Theodore Cazals (@trueslazac) explains why French president Emmanuel Macron is unpopular, and why the French political system has entered a period of stability anyway.

William Kedjanyi (@KeejayOV3), Paul Krishnamurty (@paulmotty), and Pip Moss (@PipsFunFacts) analyze how British Prime Minister Keir Starmer could hold on to power.

Timestamps

0:10: Chougule introduces France segment

1:26: Chougule introduces UK segment

2:28: Intro ends

4:29: France interview begins

4:36: Cazals background

5:32: Cazals connection to prediction markets

6:50: Why Cazals lost money in prediction markets

11:44: Macron's approval ratings

12:53: French political system

13:37: Macron's political brand

17:13: Yellow Vest Movement

22:24: France Polymarkets

22:30: Macron out of office?

23:24: Impeachment

23:59: French legislative elections

25:52: Lecornu

26:14: Prime Ministers

26:58: Elisabeth Borne

30:48: Budget cuts

32:06: Pension reform

32:45: Reappointment of Lecornu

33:54: Lecornu out?

36:50: France segment ends

37:05: UK segment begins

37:18: Personnel changes?

38:53: Rachel Reeves out?

39:51: Cabinet reshuffle?

40:11: Starmer resigns?

41:37: Blair-Brown rivalry

43:28: Starmer relationship with MPs

44:11: Boris Johnson's ouster

45:43: Foreign policy

45:54: Starmer-Trump relationship

46:25: Greenland

49:05: Odds on Starmer leaving in 2026

Bet on French and British politics at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork

​Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Part 1: UK-based political bettors William Kedjanyi, Paul Krishnamurty, and Pip Moss debate how long Starmer can last as prime minister.

Part 2: Chougule announces Polymarket sponsorship of DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup.

Timestamps

0:00: Chougule introduces UK segment

0:39: Polymarket markets on UK politics

1:35: Intro ends

3:36: UK segment begins

6:02: What has gone wrong for Starmer?

11:10: Starmer's communication problem

11:31: Perceptions of Starmer as a liar

11:41: Starmer is hated

17:40: Free speech

24:36: Market odds on Starmer's departure

25:23: Policy challenges

26:46: Housing

28:10: Local elections

32:50: Policy decisions

37:12: Immigration

39:30: Process After May Elections

42:14: May election odds

52:27: How Labour would remove Starmer

54:29: Blair-Brown rivalry

56:06: Trade unions

56:26: Soft left faction

1:05:52: Starmer U-turns

1:07:51: Challengers to Starmers

1:09:15: Reaction to Labour losses in May elections

1:12:30: UK segment ends

1:12:45: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers

Bet on UK politics at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

The next DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup will be on Thursday, January 29 from 6:00 PM - 9:00 PM at The Flying Mexican in Washington DC. ​

All 2026 DC meetups are sponsored by Polymarket! ​

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing you to stay informed on future events across various topics.

Polymarket's markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth. Learn more at Polymarket.com. ​

Thanks to Polymarket, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup.

Open to all ages. ​

Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Luma event page are welcomed! https://luma.com/dld19288?tk=XIracE ​

Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, and Kalshi, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. ​

This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork ​

Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Part I: Akhi Pillalamarri (@AkhiPill) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) explains why India and Pakistan won't resort to nuclear weapons.

Part II: David Glidden (@dglid) interviews Amb. Thomas Miller, former chair of the board of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, a corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states and the District of Columbia.

Timestamps

0:00: Chougule introduces segment with Pillalamarri

1:07: Chougule introduces Glidden interview with Miller

1:46: Parallels between lotteries and prediction markets

2:47: Intro ends

4:48: Pillalamarri segment begins

5:12: Kylasa (@aenews) side bet with Mehndiratta (@tenad0me)

5:51: Odds on nuclear war

6:01: Anti-nuclear norms

6:55: Why India and Pakistan haven't used nukes

7:34: Terrorism vs. nukes 8:46: India's no first use doctrine 10:05: Variance 10:18: Anthropic effects 10:52: Nuclear taboos 10:58: Why Pakistan won't transfer nukes 11:36: Polymarket market on nuclear detonation 11:45: Segment ends 12:00: Interview with Miller begins 12:17: Miller's background 12:46: Rumsfeld 14:27: Chougule 14:44: Washingtonian profile of Chougule 15:06: Intralot 15:26: Lotteries offering sports betting 15:58: Prediction markets 16:46: Business of prediction markets 17:02: Amazon 18:36: How Miller got into lottery business 19:43: Lottery expansion into sports betting 20:46: Women 21:19: Lottery regulation 21:44: How lotteries gained acceptance 24:10: Demographic of prediction market users 25:02: Forecasting as an ambassador 26:07: Black swan events 26:20: History 26:30: Intelligence before Russian invasion of Ukraine 28:59: Data in diplomacy 29:47: Iraq War 31:23: AI 32:04: Prediction markets for diplomacy 37:09: Using prediction markets to anticipate bad events 37:36: Prediction markets for resource allocation decisions 37:52: Medical research 39:43: Segment ends 39:57: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetups Trade on markets related to nuclear weapons and war at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for the final DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup on Wednesday, December 17 from 6-9pm at the Flying Mexican on Capitol Hill, close to the Eastern Market metro station (blue/orange lines), NOT our usual Rocklands BBQ location in Arlington. Be sure to show up on the correct side of the river this month! Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Thanks to our sponsor, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan.

Timestamps

0:00: Chougule introduces episode

0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

2:25: Intro ends

4:25: Interview begins

4:46: Pillalamarri's background

5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets

6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan

7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict

8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war?

9:34: Pakistan's strategy

11:47: Spike in Polymarket market

12:13: Nuclear weapons

12:57: Terrorist attack in India

18:10: Indian military options

19:50: Indian hardliners

20:51: Pakistan's hand

25:18: China

26:38: Saudi Arabia

27:50: Munir

28:14: Pakistani military

29:06: India's point of view

30:01: Hardline Indian policy

32:50: Timing of an Indian strike

35:21: Market rules on "strike"

36:33: No Indian ground forces

37:06: Indian strike in 2027

Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.

Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers

Bet on the India-Pakistan conflict at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by?tid=1764041734299

The next DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup is on Tuesday, Nov 25 from 6-9pm at Rocklands Barbeque and Grilling Company.

This month's speaker is John Bennett. John was the co-organizer of the recent Manifest x DC conference that took place earlier this month and will be leading a discussion about what worked well, what didn't, and what we could do to scale next time.

A BBQ buffet and fountain drinks will be provided free of charge to this month's attendees. Alcoholic beverages will be available for purchase.

Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/VoLn8aAh4pabxrxczwiz

Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists.

Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true

Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups

Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork

Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Curt Mills (@curtmills), Executive Director of The American Conservative, returns to discuss Virginia politics and why Republican Jason Miyares is likely to win the Attorney General race.

Timestamps

0:00: Intro begins

1:04: Intro ends

3:05: Interview with Mills begins

3:37: Mills's connection to Virginia

5:16: Virginia politics

7:11: Thomas Jefferson High School

10:23: William and Mary University

12:45: Changes in Virginia

17:21: Upcoming elections

20:38: Governor's race

23:00: Governor election margin of victory

25:11: Earle-Sears

26:08: Spanberger

27:00: Trans issue

29:30: Attorney General race

29:59: Importance of State Attorneys General

32:47: Jones scandal

39:03: DOGE

42:27: October turns

45:40: Prediction markets

Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics. Follow us on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Bet on Virginia's elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Forecasting Meetup Network—Join the community of prediction market traders, rationalists, effective altruists, sports bettors, and other forecasters coming together to improve humanity's ability to predict the future.

https://forecastingmeetupnetwork.kit.com/eb6374e5e8

Latin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election.

Timestamps

0:00: Intro begins

0:35: Venezuela invasion

1:35: Intro ends

3:36: Interview begins

4:38: Polymarket odds

4:55: Chilean history

5:45: Pinochet

8:06: Chilean democracy

9:19: Ideologies of Chilean candidates

10:09: 2021 election

11:19: Boric's failures

12:20: Regional waves

13:43: First round

14:51: Left-wing primary

15:47: Kast

19:47: Kast's electability

20:16: Kast's professional bio

21:47: Kast's political skill

22:20: Jara

23:43: Latin American left

27:17: Jara's view on mining

29:57: Comparisons to other Latin American leftists

31:48: Matthei

32:39: Parisi

33:18: Kaiser

34:28: Kaiser polling

35:00: Latin American libertarians and immigration

36:02: First round winner

38:47: Polling

39:45: Bezek's recommended combo play

40:01: Overall winner

42:32: Why Polymarket underpricing Kast

43:41: Potential surprises

44:04: Financial markets

44:45: Tariffs

48:44: Venezuela invasion

50:15: Equity plays

51:35: ETFs

52:01: Banco de Chile

52:21: Chilean peso

52:34: How to follow election

53:16: How to interpret polls

54:31: Implications for other Latin American candidates

54:57: Follow Bezek

55:46: Interview ends

56:00: Upcoming meetups

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Social

Twitter/X: @ssgamblers

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@starspangledgamblers1029

Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7

Bet on Latin American politics at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Forecasting Meetup Network

Join the community of prediction market traders, rationalists, effective altruists, sports bettors, and other forecasters coming together to improve humanity's ability to predict the future.

Upcoming meetups:

• DC: Thu, Sep 18th at 6pm. Details and RSVP here.
• Boston: Mon, Sep 22nd at 6pm. Details and RSVP here.

https://forecastingmeetupnetwork.kit.com/eb6374e5e8

Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets.

Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics.

Timestamps

0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard

1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment

1:28: Mamdani victory

2:10: Intro ends

4:10: Pritchard segment begins

4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law

4:41: State regulation

6:34: CFTC

7:24: State compliance costs

7:43: Kalshi's goal

9:09: Liquidity

10:59: Criticisms of Kalshi

11:08: Zubkoff tweet

12:40: Pritchard agreement with Zubkoff

12:54: Contradictions in Kalshi's position

13:41 : Mansour response to Zubkoff

14:37: Pritchard response to Mansour

16:28: Chougule's view of Kalshi sports contracts

18:28: Chougule defends Kalshi

19:46: Market demand for sports betting

20:24: The need to attract sports bettors

21:22: Regulatory environment

22:53: Retail traders

24:01: Gaming industry

29:48: Lawsuits

29:58: Nevada

30:37: New Jersey

31:15: Maryland

31:23: Illinois

31:46: Third Circuit

32:11: Timing

32:24 : Pritchard segment ends

32:39: Rule 3O3 segment begins

32:41: Gender divides among Indian-Americans

32:54: Saira Rao

33:22: White women

35:51: Finding an edge through elite thinking

36:06: Childhood trauma

36:57: Outsider psychology

37:34: Political biographies

38:20: UVA rape accusation

40:31: Crime demographics in mainstream media

42:41: Rule3O3 segment ends

42:57: DC August Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup

Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.

SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER/X: @ssgamblers

VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com

Trade at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, August 14 from 6-9pm.

We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left.

Our guest speaker this month is Ambassador Tom Miller. A 29-year career diplomat, Ambassador Miller's experience in the Foreign Service spanned many continents, including posts in Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cyprus, Thailand as well as the State Department in Washington, where he worked on North Africa, the Middle East, and counter-terrorism issues. From 2019 to 2022, Tom was Chair of the Board of the US subsidiary of Intralot, Inc., a US corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states.

Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/2VIW9cQaw6pexbaQSmUh?f=1&photo=all

Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists.

Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network.

Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups

Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork

Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration.

Timestamps

0:00: Intro begins

0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable

1:40: Polymarket investigation

3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship

5:43: Intro ends

7:43: Interview begins

8:16: Comped.com

9:51: Trump administration

11:41: Quintenz

14:34: Pham

15:15: Kalshi's strategy

18:27: Prediction market roundtable

20:26: Gaming law

26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets

31:53: Kalshi lawsuits

32:51: CEA

34:45: Federalism

37:03: Injunctions

38:21: Maryland case

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers

Twitter: @ssgamblers

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@starspangledgamblers1029

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7

Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, July 31.

https://partiful.com/e/NIWa277GHtddC5sxSTU6

Our guest speaker this month will be former U.S. diplomat Thomas Miller, who previously served as the non-executive chairman of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, one of world's largest lottery/sports betting operators.

Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future.

We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available.

We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left.

Food and drink available for purchase.

Open to all ages.

Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists.

Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true

This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups

Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork

Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Jacky Pritchard, political bettor and former NY state lawyer, explains how Andrew Cuomo emerged as the frontrunning for New York City mayor.

Timestamps

0:17: Jacky Pritchard

0:55: Pratik's impressions from Queens

2:44: Follow @iabvek and @politicalkiwi

3:17: Intro ends

5:17: Interview begins

6:00: How Jacky became interested in political betting

8:31: Jacky's legal background

9:52: How Cuomo made a comeback

22:46: Cuomo's scandals

26:10: Cuomo's legal problems

27:01: #metoo movement

30:34: Eric Adams

33:46: Cuomo as frontrunner

34:32: DoJ investigation against Cuomo

36:10: Zohran Mamdani

37:07: Ranked choice voting

38:41: Margin of victory

40:39: Number of RCV rounds

41:10: End of interview with Jacky

41:24: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

42:43: Forecasting meetups

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X: @ssgamblers

Trade on the NYC Mayor's race at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

The next Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup is on Wednesday, June 25 from 6-9pm. Guest speaker: Robin Hanson. Details here: https://partiful.com/e/50RbhKj6jsiww1A8QKYO