Star Spangled Gamblers

David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community.

Timestamps

0:00: Intro begins

0:09: Saul Munn

1:26: David Glidden

1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

6:54: Interview with Glidden begins

13:32: Importance of building forecasting community

14:39: Effective altruism

22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

24:49: Sports betting

40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets

Show Notes

September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets

Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups

For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid.

Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting.

Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb. 

Timestamps

0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield

1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle

9:34: Bransfield segment begins

11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation

20:33: Definition of a contest

21:47: Market manipulation

27:02: Cobb's concerns

27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming

29:34: Importance of public comments to CFTC

25:38: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

Show Notes

September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups

For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid.

Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate.

Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election.

Timestamps

3:49: Interview begins

4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt

6:54: 50Pence introduction

8:26: Title Belt bet

15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump

18:32: Counterparty risk

21:39: Debate rules

30:59: Harris's performance

57:13: Trump's weaknesses

1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets

1:08:03: Crypto/Bitcoin mentions

1:15:32: How many Trump-Harris debates?

1:18:47: Lottos on 3+ debates?

Show Notes

Bet on debate markets at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court

Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups

Timestamps

0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment

0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment

2:12: Mormon vote in Arizona and Nevada

3:30: Cuban-American vote in Florida

6:23: Segment on Kalshi begins

6:29: Jones Day

9:13: Joshua Sterling

10:50: Yaakov Roth

11:14: Amanda Rice

11:39: Kalshi's gaming argument

14:05: Kalshi's public interest argument

14:45: Lack of expertise on prediction markets

15:35: Factual errors

16:40: Kalshi references Chougule's comment letter

19:51: Attendees at the Hearing

21:08: Importance of legal arguments

22:10: Judge's reaction to Kalshi

23:11: Segment with Whitley begins

23:34: The Triple Package

24:09: Mormon influence in politics

25:11: Protestant alliances

25:48: Romney-Santorum battle in 2012

26:19: High-achieving minority groups

27:02: Cuban-Americans

29:31: Mormons moving left

35:27: Utah housing affordability

36:29: Federal lands in Utah

37:55: Blue state refugees in Utah

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Coalition for Political Forecasting: https://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/

Markets Referenced

Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Arizona Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129552556

Arizona Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129686645

AZ-06 election: Engel (D) vs. Ciscomani (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r?tid=1725129720295

AZ-01 election: Shah (D) vs. Schweikert (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r?tid=1725129749517

Nevada Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129799530

Nevada Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129834707

Utah Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129848259

Utah Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129890027

Utah Governor Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-governor-election-winner?tid=1725129905105

Florida Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129967776

Florida Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129994668

Tipping Point State: https://polymarket.com/event/us-election-tipping-point-state?tid=1725130009469

Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup. 

Timestamps

3:58: Interview begins

5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC

18:05: Why the RNC matters

19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency

27:47: Media treatment of Harris

31:54: How to bet on the Trump-Kamala race

37:22: Polymarket's achievements in the 2024 election

SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers

FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers

VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com

Bet on the 2024 presidential election at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com.

Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal.

Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC

Timestamps

1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC

2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube

3:43: What to write to the CFTC

5:38: The CFTC's goal with its event contracts proposal

7:39: What kind of comments will move the needle

12:36: Questions about enforcement in the proposal

13:44: Political betting moving offshore

15:17: Delaying the rule

17:23: Need for a balancing test

22:36: Interview with Bransfield begins

28:31: Jia Cobb

34:32: Ignorance about prediction markets

38:36: Gambling references on Kalshi's website

CFTC Proposal on Event Contracts: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8907-24

SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers

FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers

VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com

Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com

Part I: Jared Whitley explains why it will be difficult politically and legally to reschedule marijuana in 2024 Part II: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss what a Republican president would mean for the regulation of election event contracts

Timestamps

0:00: Pratik introduces marijuana rescheduling segment

2:11: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation

3:24: CFTC rulemaking on event contracts

6:46: Interview with Whitley begins

8:14: Referencing Polymarket odds in political analysis

11:12: What does rescheduling marijuana mean?

13:30: Why Biden rescheduled marijuana

17:46: Romney's objections

18:17: U.S. treaty obligations

30:05: Public attitudes

35:27: Bransfield interview begins

Show Notes

— Whitley's Daily Caller column: https://dailycaller.com/2024/04/10/whitley-democrats-trick-young-americans-selling-birthright-mess-pot-marijuana-election/

— Romney letter to DEA https://www.romney.senate.gov/romney-leads-letter-to-dea-highlighting-concerns-with-rescheduling-marijuana-and-compliance-with-u-s-treaty-obligations/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CAny%20effort%20to%20reschedule%20marijuana,account%20for%20our%20treaty%20obligations.%E2%80%9D

Trade on whether marijuana will be rescheduled in 2024 at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024?tid=1722322243642

Part I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats.

Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets

Timestamps 

0:30: Pratik introduces Kedjanyi

1:53: Pratik introduces segment with Pickles

5:19: Segment with Kedjanyi begins

6:27: Reform Party's launch

11:28: Farage's odds of election

15:02: Farage's impact in the next government

19:38: First past the post

25:03: The Labour Party's ideology

25:46: How Farage could impact the Tories

26:42: Reform will not be the opposition

28:08: How many seats for Labour

29:39: What Kedjanyi learned from traveling around the country

33:19: Potential surprises

36:27: Which way will polling miss go?

39:07: Segment with Pickles begins

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers

Trade on the UK elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP. Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event contracts

Part III: Anthony Pickles (@polgambling) provides advice on how to follow the UK elections and maintain an edge in these markets

Part IV: Saul Munn (@saulmunn) explains the importance of capital in building the forecasting community

Timestamps

0:11: Pratik introduces segment on J.D. Vance

0:46: Pratik introduces segment with Mick Bransfield

1:30: Pratik introduces segment with Anthony Pickles

2:13: Pratik introduces segment with Saul Munn

5:02: Vance segment begins

5:14: Chan's views on Vance

6:33: Freeman's analysis on Vance

8:34: Pratik's analysis on Vance

11:07: Segment with Bransfield begins

18:11: Libertarians in CFTC comment period

28:09: Segment with Pickles begins

33:05: Segment with Munn begins

35:24: Social capital

41:33: Weak ties

44:09: Creating value

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Bet on Trump's VP selection at Polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/republican-vp-nominee/will-tim-scott-win-the-2024-republican-vp-nomination?tid=1719813123739

Optic Forecasting: https://www.opticforecasting.com/

Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets.

Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington.

Timestamps

0:09: Pratik introduces segment on UK elections

2:01: Pratik introduces segment with Alex Chan on VP odds

3:17: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation

5:55: Segment on UK elections begins

6:12: Anthony's background

8:17: Keir Starmer's background

10:16: Starmer's odds of becoming Prime Minister

11:01: How many seats Conservatives and Labour will win

22:04: Why Sunak and the Conservatives are unlikely to make a comeback

28:37: Why Sunak called an early election

30:54: Labour seat totals

34:03: Right-wing bias in the markets?

36:59: Discussion of class politics

39:27: Segment with Chan begins

39:46: VP odds on Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy

40:48: "Juice" in sportsbooks

41:46: Regulation segment begins

42:56: Incentives in the current CFTC rulemaking

45:00: Need for a counter-lobby on event contracts

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers

Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at Polymarket.com