Star Spangled Gamblers

Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC.

Timestamps 

0:00: Introduction begins

0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets

0:31: Victory for Polymarket

1:53: Kalshi legal case

7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins

7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Political Forecasting

8:06: District court case

10:37: Gaming

15:45: Jia Cobb's ruling

18:17: DC Circuit appeal

18:30: DC Circuit court judges

30:43: Perception of harm from election contracts

33:07: Foreign prediction markets

35:27: Behnam comments on UK betting scandal

36:33: Kid Rock manipulation anecdote

38:33: Manipulation in prediction markets

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Sign up for the Forecasting Meetup Network: https://forecastingmeetupnetwork.kit.com/eb6374e5e8

Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from 

Timestamps

0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey

3:00: SSG pre-election coverage

4:01: Manifold election party

6:52: Interview begins

7:39: Epoch Times

19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting

24:43: Data

31:16: Republican uniformity of message

38:28: Impressions from the ground

45:23: October surprises?

48:06: Montana Senate race

Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup.

Timestamps

1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup

2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building

3:03: October forecasting meetup

7:03: Interview with Glidden begins

8:29: Working with a partner

9:42: Sensitivity to rejection

12:48: Nate Silver's community of elites

14:25: Big visions

15:25: Shayne Coplan's vision

18:28: Scratch your own itch

19:52: Prediction market newsletters

21:39: Polymarket's The Oracle

22:32: How to begin

23:03: Finding a venue

26:17: Focus on n of 1

26:38: Fundraising

27:28: Manifund

32:39: Value for sponsors

37:17: Getting RSVPs

38:56: How to get involved

41:54: Expanding beyond Washington

43:26: Grassroots activism

44:46: Opponents of election betting

47:53: Why companies don't invest in grassroots activism

Join us for a pre-election forecasting & prediction markets meetup/party this Tuesday! Details and RSVP for free here: https://partiful.com/e/ITHDAcznT1DppUXD2p9x

Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community.

Timestamps

0:00: Intro begins

0:09: Saul Munn

1:26: David Glidden

1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

6:54: Interview with Glidden begins

13:32: Importance of building forecasting community

14:39: Effective altruism

22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

24:49: Sports betting

40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets

Show Notes

September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets

Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups

For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid.

Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting.

Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb. 

Timestamps

0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield

1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle

9:34: Bransfield segment begins

11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation

20:33: Definition of a contest

21:47: Market manipulation

27:02: Cobb's concerns

27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming

29:34: Importance of public comments to CFTC

25:38: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup

Show Notes

September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups

For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid.

Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate.

Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election.

Timestamps

3:49: Interview begins

4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt

6:54: 50Pence introduction

8:26: Title Belt bet

15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump

18:32: Counterparty risk

21:39: Debate rules

30:59: Harris's performance

57:13: Trump's weaknesses

1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets

1:08:03: Crypto/Bitcoin mentions

1:15:32: How many Trump-Harris debates?

1:18:47: Lottos on 3+ debates?

Show Notes

Bet on debate markets at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court

Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups

Timestamps

0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment

0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment

2:12: Mormon vote in Arizona and Nevada

3:30: Cuban-American vote in Florida

6:23: Segment on Kalshi begins

6:29: Jones Day

9:13: Joshua Sterling

10:50: Yaakov Roth

11:14: Amanda Rice

11:39: Kalshi's gaming argument

14:05: Kalshi's public interest argument

14:45: Lack of expertise on prediction markets

15:35: Factual errors

16:40: Kalshi references Chougule's comment letter

19:51: Attendees at the Hearing

21:08: Importance of legal arguments

22:10: Judge's reaction to Kalshi

23:11: Segment with Whitley begins

23:34: The Triple Package

24:09: Mormon influence in politics

25:11: Protestant alliances

25:48: Romney-Santorum battle in 2012

26:19: High-achieving minority groups

27:02: Cuban-Americans

29:31: Mormons moving left

35:27: Utah housing affordability

36:29: Federal lands in Utah

37:55: Blue state refugees in Utah

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Coalition for Political Forecasting: https://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/

Markets Referenced

Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Arizona Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129552556

Arizona Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129686645

AZ-06 election: Engel (D) vs. Ciscomani (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r?tid=1725129720295

AZ-01 election: Shah (D) vs. Schweikert (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r?tid=1725129749517

Nevada Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129799530

Nevada Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129834707

Utah Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129848259

Utah Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129890027

Utah Governor Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-governor-election-winner?tid=1725129905105

Florida Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129967776

Florida Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129994668

Tipping Point State: https://polymarket.com/event/us-election-tipping-point-state?tid=1725130009469

Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup. 

Timestamps

3:58: Interview begins

5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC

18:05: Why the RNC matters

19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency

27:47: Media treatment of Harris

31:54: How to bet on the Trump-Kamala race

37:22: Polymarket's achievements in the 2024 election

SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers

FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers

VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com

Bet on the 2024 presidential election at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com.

Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal.

Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC

Timestamps

1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC

2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube

3:43: What to write to the CFTC

5:38: The CFTC's goal with its event contracts proposal

7:39: What kind of comments will move the needle

12:36: Questions about enforcement in the proposal

13:44: Political betting moving offshore

15:17: Delaying the rule

17:23: Need for a balancing test

22:36: Interview with Bransfield begins

28:31: Jia Cobb

34:32: Ignorance about prediction markets

38:36: Gambling references on Kalshi's website

CFTC Proposal on Event Contracts: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8907-24

SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers

FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers

VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com

Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com

Part I: Jared Whitley explains why it will be difficult politically and legally to reschedule marijuana in 2024 Part II: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss what a Republican president would mean for the regulation of election event contracts

Timestamps

0:00: Pratik introduces marijuana rescheduling segment

2:11: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation

3:24: CFTC rulemaking on event contracts

6:46: Interview with Whitley begins

8:14: Referencing Polymarket odds in political analysis

11:12: What does rescheduling marijuana mean?

13:30: Why Biden rescheduled marijuana

17:46: Romney's objections

18:17: U.S. treaty obligations

30:05: Public attitudes

35:27: Bransfield interview begins

Show Notes

— Whitley's Daily Caller column: https://dailycaller.com/2024/04/10/whitley-democrats-trick-young-americans-selling-birthright-mess-pot-marijuana-election/

— Romney letter to DEA https://www.romney.senate.gov/romney-leads-letter-to-dea-highlighting-concerns-with-rescheduling-marijuana-and-compliance-with-u-s-treaty-obligations/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CAny%20effort%20to%20reschedule%20marijuana,account%20for%20our%20treaty%20obligations.%E2%80%9D

Trade on whether marijuana will be rescheduled in 2024 at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024?tid=1722322243642