Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets.

Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics.

Timestamps

0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard

1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment

1:28: Mamdani victory

2:10: Intro ends

4:10: Pritchard segment begins

4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law

4:41: State regulation

6:34: CFTC

7:24: State compliance costs

7:43: Kalshi's goal

9:09: Liquidity

10:59: Criticisms of Kalshi

11:08: Zubkoff tweet

12:40: Pritchard agreement with Zubkoff

12:54: Contradictions in Kalshi's position

13:41 : Mansour response to Zubkoff

14:37: Pritchard response to Mansour

16:28: Chougule's view of Kalshi sports contracts

18:28: Chougule defends Kalshi

19:46: Market demand for sports betting

20:24: The need to attract sports bettors 

21:22: Regulatory environment

22:53: Retail traders

24:01: Gaming industry

29:48: Lawsuits

29:58: Nevada

30:37: New Jersey

31:15: Maryland

31:23: Illinois

31:46: Third Circuit

32:11: Timing

32:24 : Pritchard segment ends

32:39: Rule 3O3 segment begins

32:41: Gender divides among Indian-Americans

32:54: Saira Rao

33:22: White women

35:51: Finding an edge through elite thinking

36:06: Childhood trauma

36:57: Outsider psychology

37:34: Political biographies

38:20: UVA rape accusation

40:31: Crime demographics in mainstream media

42:41: Rule3O3 segment ends

42:57: DC August Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup

Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.

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Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, August 14 from 6-9pm.

We’re returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We’ll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left.

Our guest speaker this month is Ambassador Tom Miller. A 29-year career diplomat, Ambassador Miller’s experience in the Foreign Service spanned many continents, including posts in Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cyprus, Thailand as well as the State Department in Washington, where he worked on North Africa, the Middle East, and counter-terrorism issues. From 2019 to 2022, Tom was Chair of the Board of the US subsidiary of Intralot, Inc., a US corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states.

Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/2VIW9cQaw6pexbaQSmUh?f=1&photo=all

Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander’s Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists.

Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network.

Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups

Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork

Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv