Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina.

1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa 2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market 5:20: Interview begins 6:06: Massa's backround 7:43: Massa's political baggage 8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction 9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections 11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round? 12:49: Milei's shortcomings 14:34: Summary of first round results 15:38: Why so much market volatility? 18:29: How much of Patricia Bullrich's support will go to Milei? 19:57: Argentina's economy 25:41: Milei's extremist statements 27:54: How foreign investors are seeing the election 29:19: Massa overperformed the polls 32:25: Polling 34:52: Ian's predictions and advice 35:50: Pratik's argument for buying Massa 39:18: Stock prices of Milei's former employer 40:58: Implications of a Milei victory for political betting 42:27: Recent elections in South America Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers

Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket.

3:54: Interview with Harrison begins

5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights?

7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan

7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan

12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia

15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading

17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia?

18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia

20:37: Have Russia and/orTurkey greenlighted an invasion?

22:08: Will the West stop a war?

24:12: Odds of an invasion

27:24: Influence of the weather in Nagorno-Karabach

29:57: How rogue is Aliyev?

33:43: Religion in Azerbaijan

35:05: How much does Azerbaijan care about international investment?

36:55: How keep up with news related to the Azerbaijan-Armenia market

38:44: Will Putin still be in power by the end of the year?

Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers

Join Star Spangled Gamblers on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers/posts

On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected. SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions. Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt. 3:20: Main segment begins 4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse 6:51: Emerson polling 8:20: Current market prices 12:31: The role of national politics 14:16: Racial politics 17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge 23:36: Polling in Kentucky 24:30: Fundraising 25:25: Indicators pointing to a Beshear win 28:30: Limited national attention 31:10: Kentucky governors races as national bellweathers 35:36: Pratik summarizes the discussion 37:15: TheWinner's final margin prediction 37:58: Potential impact of the war in Israel Trade on Polymarket here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gubernatorial-election Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers

3-Part Episode — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events Timestamps

4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins

4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers  7:14: Kentucky colonels 9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's race? 15:29: Who is Daniel Cameron? 18:20: Counties in Kentucky to watch 21:35: Why Andy Beshear won in 2019 22:14: Cameron's appeal 23:26: Background on KY politics 25:27: Partisan politics in KY 26:54: Lexington-Louisville rivalry 27:42: Davies County 28:47: Segment begins on Kalshi's role in Polymarket 30:18: Former CFTC official Maggie Sklar's comment to the CFTC against Kalshi 34:23: MAGAVacuum's research on communications and political prediction markets 36:00: How to gain an edge by traveling to campaign events Show Notes — Sklar's letter to CFTC https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=72703&SearchText=sklar Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Follow Pratik Chougule on Twitter: @pjchougule

After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts.

Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision.

0:00: Introduction begins

2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation 3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency 5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community 7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour 13:03: Interview with Mick begins 15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period 16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments 17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated? 18:10: Public Citizen 20:57: Better Markets 21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin 22:55: Center for American Progress 25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football? 31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters 33:41: Kalshi's response 46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach Links: Mick Bransfield's website: https://mickbransfield.com/markets/ Coalition for Political Forecasting: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/ Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/

After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit 3:25: Interview begins 4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy 7:00: Richard responds to those in the forecasting community who want to cancel him 8:12: How cancel culture is changing 10:13: Manifest Conference 11:12: Market-based responses to cancel culture 14:27: GOP nominee odds 15:56: Ramaswamy's views on prediction markets 17:50: PredictIt lawsuit against the CFTC 20:31: Conservative legal movement 32:20: Reasons why election markets became partisan 33:01: Political implications of Trump's legal problems 34:55: Hanania responds to haters and calls for open-mindedness 36:11: Incentives for political gambling versus punditry 40:11: Pratik plugs Origins of Woke

Ben Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses. Timestamps 3:12: Interview begins 3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries? 5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis 6:06: Trump's appearance 6:28: Ramaswamy rapping 7:30: DeSantis's prospects 23:40: Iowa evangelicals 26:23: DeSantis's ground game 31:38: Longshot candidates and nonstarters in Iowa 35:18: Odds of a Trump second place in Iowa 37:28: Ramaswamy supporters 38:06: Hatred of Pence 39:08: Freeman's post-interview notes

Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues.

Timestamps:

0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament 2:58: Manifest conference 5:04: Crime markets on Manifold 6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG 10:23: Who is Hanania? 15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania 19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forecasting community? 23:24: Peter Wildeford's criticism 29:03: Aaron Bergman's warning on ideological policing

32:22: Political betting as a solution to political polarization

33:52: OutsideContextProblem's criticism of Hanania as a troll 36:46: Rob Henderson's defense of Hanania 38:27: Oliver Habryka's proposed standard for canceling Hanania 40:45: Why Aella isn't canceled 43:47: David Manheim's critique on Hanania making people feel unwelcome 45:05: Ezra Brody's question on engaging "gross people"

Intro: Pratik Chougule  Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in political betting markets and argues for recruiting experts to participate in prediction markets

1:45: Pratik promotes the Manifest Conference https://www.manifestconference.net/ 5:46: Zubby on the possibility of a government shutdown 30:02: Mick Bransfield on David Ezra, the new judge who will oversee the PredictIt case at the district court 38:47: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on arrogance in political betting and argues for recruiting experts into political prediction markets

Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling. Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate

Timestamps

0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess 1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate 2:59: Political betting insights from the first Republican debate 10:32: Friess's interest in political gambling 13:55: Why betting markets missed the 2022 midterms 21:05: Policymaking community's skepticism of political gambling 39:17: Factors in whether Trump will show up to a Republican debate