The Makerfield by-election is going to be huge - if Andy Burnham wins, Labour will believe it has a route to beating Reform UK at a general election. If Reform wins, then it will clear Nigel Farage's path to power and plunge the government into (further) chaos.

Sally, Polly, Danny (and Hugo) weigh up who is the underdog, whether Wes Streeting will run against Burnham, and whether a victorious Burnham could even think about going to the country.

Also, Danny explains why the best parallel for this contest is probably William Gladstone in 1876.

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