Westminster Insider

After a Democratic wave in the U.S. midterms, Westminster is wondering whether Trump's domestic setbacks could make him more unpredictable on the world stage — and how Britain should handle the final two years of his presidency.

Patrick Baker speaks to Simon McDonald, the former top civil servant at the Foreign Office, who takes us inside Britain's diplomatic response to the 2018 midterms and explains what lessons can be learned from Trump's first term.

Then Ed Roman, who recently left his role as director of communications at the British Embassy in Washington, reveals how diplomats are already preparing for the next U.S. president — and how to court Trump's potential successors without upsetting the man currently in the Oval Office.

And POLITICO's senior foreign and defence correspondent Esther Webber explains why she thinks Andy Burnham will take a different approach to the Trump White House than his predecessor.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Democrats have won the Senate and the House, taking control of Congress for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

On this special episode of Westminster Insider, Patrick Baker is joined from Washington D.C. by our Global Politics Bureau Chief Jack Blanchard to unpack the election results and to explore what they could mean for Britain and its European allies.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Budgets are all about numbers: growth, inflation, unemployment, headroom. So this week on Westminster Insider, Sascha and Pat look into the numbers behind Britain's economy — and just how much government policy is really made up of guesswork, rather than solid measurements.

Sascha talks to Dr Laura Gilbert, the former director of data at Number 10 Downing Street, who explains exactly why the numbers we have on measurements like immigration or the workforce are often wrong by hundreds of thousands of people.

Ben Warner, who was chief advisor on data and digital at Number 10 during the pandemic, explains why this uncertainty spells chaos for political decision-making and says he believes most ministers don't know how to use data.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andy Burnham has promised Britain can “hope again”. But with inflation rising, borrowing costs soaring and trillions of pounds of national debt, how much room does Chancellor John Healey actually have to deliver in the budget on Oct. 28?

This week, Pat and Sascha speak to Treasury insiders to find out who really calls the shots when a Chancellor puts together a budget.

First, they hear from Matt Pound, one of former Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ closest advisers, about the tough choices facing Healey, the dangers of leaks and U-turns, and why keeping the bond markets onside matters more than politicians might like to admit.

Then, Cameron Brown, who worked under both Kwasi Kwarteng and Jeremy Hunt, and Simon Finkelstein, who advised Hunt at the Treasury, reveal just how obsessed Westminster has become with the bond markets.

And POLITICO’s Financial Services Editor Fiona Maxwell gives her predictions for what Healey might have in store on budget day.

-

00:00 Budget context

04:43 Matt Pound interview

20:40 Why bond markets are so important during budgets

25:20 Ex-treasury staffers Cameron Brown and Simon Finkelstein

37:23 Politico's financial services editor Fiona Maxwell

41:32 The Oddcast: modern day jousting...

-

This podcast has been updated to correct the description of Simon Finkelstein’s role.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Customs union, single market, rejoin, second referendum. It's all feeling a little Ground Hog day in Westminster after Andy Burnham reopened the Europe question at Labour Party conference.

Hosts Sascha O'Sullivan and Pat Baker find out how the row over Europe will play out in the next few years, with Reform MP Danny Kruger and Labour MP Stella Creasy.

Sascha speaks to Cecilia Malmström, former EU Trade Commissioner during the Brexit negotiations, who says any new deal with the EU would need to be "Nigel Farage-proofed" in case Reform wound up in Downing Street.

UK-EU reporter Jon Stone explains what Burnham is hoping to gain from the EU summit next month, and whether Britain's friends in Brussels care about Westminster looking again at Britain's relationship with the trading bloc.

-

00:00 Introduction

03:16 Return of the EU wars?

08:00 Stellar Creasy and Danny Kruger

18:58 Could there be a second referendum?

24:10 Does the EU care about the UK?

27:20 Former EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom

32:45 The 'Oddcast'

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On a special edition of Westminster Insider from Labour Party conference, Pat and Sascha sat down with the new Mayor of Greater Manchester, Bev Craig, at the POLITICO Pub in Liverpool.

In a conversation recorded in front of a live audience on Tuesday, shortly before Andy Burnham’s conference speech, Craig opened up about what it’s really like taking over from her predecessor — and how she plans to make the job her own.

Fresh from a trip to New York, she revealed what she learned from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and what Greater Manchester might borrow from his playbook.

Craig told Westminster Insider about her plan for Donald Trump’s visit to Manchester next year. Plus, she faced Pat and Sascha’s quick-fire round.

Westminster Insider returns in full on October 16.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With England through to the knockout stages of the World Cup and hopes rising that football might finally be coming home, Westminster is watching nervously — and closely.

The beautiful game shapes the national mood like little else. For politicians, that creates both huge opportunity and huge risk.

This week, Patrick Baker speaks to football and politics journalist Joey D’Urso about the deep historical links between football and political power, and why World Cup success has long shaped Britain’s political imagination.

Political commentator and former Labour adviser Scarlett McGwire explains why authenticity matters more in football than almost anywhere else in politics — and recalls the bizarre moment Gordon Brown’s advisers staged photos of him cheering on England to make him appear “less Scottish.”

In a late-night pub viewing of Scotland vs. Brazil, Scottish Labour MP Brian Leishman offers a perspective from north of the border on the hardship of following the Tartan Army, England’s World Cup hopes and home nations rivalry.

Labour MP Kim Leadbeater reflects on football’s power to bring people together across political divides, and why politicians should resist turning the game into another front in Britain’s culture wars.

And playwright James Graham, creator of the hit play and TV series Dear England, argues that football may be one of the last great communal experiences in British life — one of the few places where strangers still come together to feel something collectively.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Greater Manchester mayoralty made Andy Burnham famous. Now he's hoping he can take the approach he developed in the city to the whole country.

This week on Westminster Insider, host Sascha O'Sullivan speaks to four serving mayors — and one former one about whether the role will prepare Burnham for the highest office in the land.

Labour Mayor of the East Midlands Claire Ward, who was a minister in Gordon Brown's government, told Sascha that mayors have much more power than junior minister.

Oliver Coppard, the Labour Mayor of South Yorkshire, explains how the job requires you to manage different competing interests, albeit on a smaller scale than as a prime minister.

But former Mayor of the West Midlands Andy Street warns that when it comes to financial responsibility and party management — two pitfalls of Keir Starmer's leadership — the job of mayor is "totally different".

Helen Godwin, West of England Mayor, and Kim McGuinness, Mayor of the North East, have graciously said they won't kick Burnham out of the Labour mayors' WhatsApp group if he becomes PM.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Makerfield has proved to be the making of Andy Burnham’s bid for the top job, but could it also be the moment that Nigel Farage’s ambitions for Number 10 took a knock? 

While Reform UK continues to lead the national polls, it failed to capture the Greater Manchester seat last week and was beaten into third place by the Conservatives, the party it’s seeking to replace, in two Scottish by-elections. Is the wind going off Reform’s sails just as Labour hopes to revive its fortunes under a new prime minister, who is being dubbed the "Reform slayer" after his by-election victory? 

In this bonus interview edition of Westminster Insider, Anne McElvoy talks to Robert Jenrick, Reform’s Treasury Spokesman, about how Reform will respond to a Burnham-led government. The former Conservative minister and leadership candidate left his party earlier this year, claiming that he wanted to “unite the Right”. Following a dispute with Reform's Zia Yusuf over the party's policy on the deportation of migrants, Jenrick is trying to carve out a distinctive position on economic policy, including a new "big bang" for the City of London.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andy Burnham is the new Labour MP for Makerfield, heading for parliament and, likely, Number 10.

But what does his momentous win here on the outskirts of Wigan tell us about his chances of masterminding a wider Labour revival as prime minister?

Host Patrick Baker has been in the constituency over the past few weeks, speaking to people who live and work in this curiously normal part of the country about the prospect of a Burnham premiership.

On the campaign trail, Labour MP Peter Dowd reveals what kind of reaction he has been getting on the doorstep and shares his enthusiasm for Burnham's economic agenda.

Reform voters at the Bryn Community Centre in Ashton explain why they feel Labour has abandoned them, but hint they might look again at voting Labour if Burnham can deliver for their area as prime minister.

Patrick speaks to locals supporting Rupert Lowe's hardline anti-immigration party Restore Britain, as well as those concerned that two insurgent parties on the right could provide a boost to Labour's electoral chances.

And Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, explains why being a popular mayor may not so easily translate into being a successful PM.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices