Show Notes:

In this episode of Hunter’s War, Hunter speaks with Edoardo Giglio, among many things, the author of Tech Tides: How Innovation Shapes Global Power, to explore how innovation ecosystems are redefining the modern battlefield and the global balance of power.

Find Edoardo’s book at these links:

https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/tech-tides-9781538198766/

https://www.amazon.com/Tech-Tides-Innovation-Shapes-Global/dp/1538198762 

From the "tanks vs. bytes" debate to the unique success of Silicon Valley and Israel, Giglio breaks down why some nations lead the future while others are left behind.

In this conversation we cover:

• The Shift in Warfare: How $200 commercial drones are neutralizing multi-million dollar Cold War assets and why "bytes are more important than bullets."

• Defining Innovation Ecosystems: The difference between basic, sustaining, disruptive, and moonshot innovation strategies.

• The "Silicon Shield": How Taiwan's accidental semiconductor dominance became its greatest geopolitical defense.

• Europe’s Innovation Crisis: Why a "buckshot approach" and fragmented regulations are causing the EU to lose the AI race.

• The Cost of Failure: Case studies on Nigeria’s "resource curse" and Ethiopia’s challenges in sustaining agricultural innovation.

• The Human Factor: Why human intuition and political will remain the ultimate driving forces behind any technological breakthrough.

Connect with Edoardo:

• LinkedIn: Edoardo Giglio: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edoardogiglio

• Substack: https://substack.com/@edobluntforce

  
  Keywords: Geopolitics, Innovation Strategy, Defense Tech, AI Act, Silicon Valley, Semiconductor Industry, Drone Warfare, TSMC, Tech Tides, warfare

On this episode of Hunter's War, guest Bardia Hariri, an Iranian-American academic and businessman, lays out a vision for Iran's future. With a deepening rift between the Iranian state and its people and the recent mass atrocity in which an estimated 33,000 citizens were killed, Hariri outlines the vision of Iranaissance. A decentralized platform of experts and diaspora, including CEOs and engineers, who are preparing for the eventual collapse of the regime. Central to this vision is a focus on economic reintegration over political sloganeering. Hariri identifies five non-negotiables that Iran must meet to attract the $150 billion in annual investment required for national redevelopment.

Finally, the episode explores Iran’s potential as a linchpin in the Global Value Chain (GVC). With over 50 million citizens under age 40 and immense energy reserves, a transparent and neutral Iran could transform from a regional destabilizer into a strategic trade crossroad connecting Europe and Asia. Hariri emphasizes that the success of this transition depends on empowering those within the country to ensure stability in the critical first 60 days following a regime collapse.

To learn more about the work Iranaissance, check out their website www.iranaissance.org

Is the West past the tipping point for civil conflict? In this episode of Hunter’s War, we sit down with Professor David Betz of King's College London for a challenging conversation about political legitimacy, insurgency, and the fragility of modern Western societies.

We explore the core concepts of insurgency as a social movement and why modern counterinsurgency often fails. Applying these lessons home, we discuss the indicators of domestic civil war currently flashing red in the West: polar factionalism, the fear of status loss, and the total collapse of institutional legitimacy. We also examine why economic wealth and elite overproduction contribute to the expectation gap and what strategies might exist to mitigate the fallout of internal conflict.

Referenced essays by Professor Betz:

Civil War Comes to the West: https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west/

Civil War Comes to the West Part II: https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west-part-ii-strategic-realities/

Professor David Betz is a Professor of War in the Modern World at King's College London, where he has taught in the Department of War Studies for over 20 years. His research focuses on insurgency, counterinsurgency, and the changing character of war.

Subscribe and follow Hunter’s War for more discussions on the intersection of geopolitics, war, and society.

This week, I’m joined by Michelle Haas, a PhD researcher at the University of Ghent focusing on NATO and European defense policy. She is also a fellow at the Egmont Institute, a board member of the Royal Higher Institute for Defense, and an active reservist in the Special Forces.For Dutch speakers, I highly recommend her podcast, de Paniekzaaiers: https://open.spotify.com/show/133zoy8FpiOehF5WA47KLy?si=80af5952da0e4addThe episodes with Jan Balliauw on Russia and, before that, discussing the US potential withdrawal from Europe are great. In this episode, we discuss the precarious state of the transatlantic security relationship, the lessons Europe can learn from the Nordic and Baltic states about societal resilience, and the critical lack of strategic communication from political leaders about evolving threats.The Transatlantic AllianceOur conversation started with the transatlantic security relationship, the cornerstone of European defense for the last century. Michelle argues that while the alliance is not dead, it is under "immense pressure". She believes the possibility of a US withdrawal of troops from Europe is "very likely" and that Europe is simply not prepared for.A sudden, unpredictable withdrawal would be a "shock to Europe" and could cause a "serious break" in the relationship. This isn't a new development; the US has been signaling its pivot to Asia for 10-15. However, Europe's strategic disunity, stemming from different threat perceptions among member states, has prevented it from developing genuine strategic autonomy.Lessons from the Nordics & BalticsWe then turned to the Nordic and Baltic countries to learn lessons from their defense approaches. Michelle notes that these countries have greater "strategic clarity" regarding the Russian threat. For them, the war didn't begin in 2022 but in 2014, and there is a sense of frustration with Western Europe's delayed reaction. Key aspects of their approach include:Total Defense: They embrace a "whole of society" approach, understanding that defense is more than just a military matter and that the entire population must be included and prepared. Finland is a prime example, with hundreds of thousands of reservists and an extensive civil defense infrastructure.Societal Resilience: The goal is to build a society that can withstand disruption. This includes practical measures like ensuring the population can take care of itself for at least 72 hours in a crisis, a standard that should apply across Europe.Deterrence by Punishment: Estonia, for example, is investing in long-range missiles to demonstrate an ability to strike back at Russia, shifting from a strategy of deterrence by denial to deterrence by punishment.The Strategic Communication GapA major theme of our discussion was the failure of strategic communication. There is a "disconnect" between political leaders and the public, who often don't understand what threats they are preparing for or why massive defense investments are needed.Michelle argues that political messaging in Western Europe is often alarmist ("we are not prepared," "we have zero stocks"), which is counterproductive. The Nordic and Baltic approach is more constructive and empowering: "we are prepared and we are preparing and everyone can take a part in this". She points to recent examples of Belgian politicians calling increased defense spending a "social bloodbath" and creating "collective hysteria," which only serves to increase the polarization our adversaries want to achieve. The goal should be to balance realism with an optimistic story that gives people a sense of agency, rather than creating fear.Photo by Thomas Nolf.

In this conversation, Hunter interviews Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, about his book 'From Jihad to Politics,' which explores the transformation of Syrian jihadi organizations into political entities. Drevon discusses the complexities of the Syrian Civil War, the evolution of groups like HTS and Ahrar Al-Sham, and the importance of understanding these organizations within their social and political contexts. He emphasizes the significance of field research and the need for a nuanced approach to studying insurgent groups, highlighting the challenges they face in balancing radical ideologies with the demands of governance and political legitimacy.

His book is available for purchase (if you can, support the research this way!): https://a.co/d/eBBZaJz (Amazon) or 

Or publicly via the PDF: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/382491710_From_Jihad_to_Politics_How_Syrian_Jihadis_Embraced_Politics

Order Jerome’s new book “ Transformed by the People” : https://a.co/d/0xYkWih

Keywords: Syria, Jihad, Politics, HTS, Ahrar Al-Sham, Al-Qaeda, Institutionalization, Field Research, Jihadi Organizations, Middle East

Notes from the discussion:

Jerome shares his surprise at the speed of the HTS-led offensive that led to the collapse of the Assad regime. While he and his colleagues had observed significant transformations within HTS in Northwest Syria, the swiftness of their victory was unexpected even for the group itself. The international community had largely ignored the evolving situation in Syria, making the outcome all the more shocking.

Hunter asks why Jerome focused on Ahrar Al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra (which became HTS) out of the hundreds of groups in the Syrian conflict. Jerome explains that unlike ISIS, which he found less interesting due to its reliance on "violence for the sake of it," these two groups had to adapt their radical ideas to survive. Their evolution and willingness to learn from their environment presented a more complex and compelling case study.

A key concept from Jerome's book is institutionalization, which he breaks down into internal and external dimensions.

• Internal Institutionalization: This refers to how a group organizes itself beyond its initial leaders, creating structures for recruitment, decision-making, and providing basic services. This allows a group to survive the loss of key figures.

• External Institutionalization: This involves how a group coordinates with other armed factions, governs civilian populations, and interacts with foreign states.

Jerome argues that this process of institutionalization, rather than simple centralization, constrains a group and forces it to make concessions, a step ISIS was never willing to take.

Jerome prefers the term "politicization" over "moderation" to describe the transformation of groups like HTS. He argues that "moderate" is a subjective term, and these groups were still committed to violence. Instead, they became more political by recognizing that military action is a means to a political end, not the end itself. This involves making alliances, dealing with foreign states, and making concessions to the local population.

Jerome explains the "jihadi paradox": the very factors that make transnational jihadi groups successful (like their global networks and clear ideology) also prevent them from achieving ultimate political victory. Their transnational nature inevitably draws international opposition. Groups like the Taliban and HTS understood that to win, they had to distance themselves from transnational jihad and focus on becoming national governing bodies.

Hunter asks about Jerome's personal experience interviewing the now-interim president of Syria. Jerome describes al-Sharaa as a decisive commander and leader who commands respect, rather than a deep intellectual thinker. He notes that al-Sharaa was willing to learn and adapt, representing a younger generation poised to do things differently in Syria

Is the center of gravity in Europe shifting east? As Russia's aggression continues, one nation is stepping up like no other. Poland is not just on the front lines; it's redefining European security for the 21st century.

In this episode of Hunter's War, we're joined by Mateusz, Chief Strategy Officer at the Community of Democracies, to discuss Poland's military modernization and its emerging role as a leader in Europe. We examine how Poland's traumatic history has shaped its robust security posture, resulting in defense spending that surpasses that of many NATO allies. We discuss the multi-domain strategy, encompassing investments in military capabilities and one of NATO's top cyber commands, as well as fostering deep societal resilience. Mateusz breaks down the response to Russia's hybrid warfare, the critical importance of domestic defense production, and why Poland's unwavering support for Ukraine is not just ethical, but deeply strategic. 

Quotes:

• "The center of gravity of Europe is shifting to the East. I think Poland is at the center of that shift." 

• "We try to prepare for the next wars rather than the past one." 

• "Our support to Ukraine, it's not only an ethical choice, but also a very strategic one." 

• "I'm still a bit worried about this notion of 'business as usual'... understand that Russia is not our partner." 

• "Poland went from an Iran level of economic development to a Japan level in a single generation." 

3 Actionable Tips:

• Bolster Domestic Defense Production: To ensure national and continental security, nations must reduce reliance on external parties for crucial military supplies. It is "an absolutely crucial issue to overcome" the inability to produce ammunition and other key components from scratch, as wartime transfers are unreliable. 

• Foster Societal Resilience: National security isn't just about military hardware; it's about the readiness of the populace. Encouraging and facilitating voluntary civilian training strengthens a nation's ability to cope with any crisis. 

• Counter Hybrid Threats Diplomatically: To combat hybrid warfare, such as sabotage instigated by foreign agents, use diplomatic tools decisively. Poland's push to suspend the Schengen zone travel rights for Russian diplomats is a prime example of limiting adversaries' operational freedom. 

#Poland #EuropeanSecurity #NATO #Geopolitics #Russia #Ukraine #Defense #MilitaryModernization #Hunter'sWar #ForeignPolicy #InternationalRelations #Europe #WeimarTriangle #HybridWarfare #CyberSecurity

In this conversation, Ines and I discuss her work as a Palestinian advocate on the international stage and the challenges faced by Palestinians in their struggle for liberation. She highlights the role of alternative diplomacy, the fragmentation of Palestinian society, and the role of civil society in advocating for rights. Ines critiques the complicity of international actors, like the US and Europe, and the media in perpetuating the status quo, occupation and genocide, while also highlighting the importance of digital platforms in amplifying Palestinian voices. She calls for new models of leadership and questions the effectiveness of state recognition in achieving true liberation for Palestinians.Chapters00:00 Ines's Background and Personal Journey01:16 Understanding Alternative Diplomacy03:07 Challenges of Palestinian Civil Society05:40 The Role of International Complicity07:25 Strategies for Advocacy and Mobilization09:40 The Impact of Media and Narrative Warfare12:24 Navigating US Politics and International Relations13:58 The Role of Digital Platforms in Advocacy16:18 Emerging Leadership Models for Palestinians18:32 Recognition of Palestinian Statehood and Its Implications20:42 Conclusion and Future DirectionsKeywordsPalestine, advocacy, alternative diplomacy, civil society, international relations, liberation, digital platforms, leadership, recognition

This conversation was recorded on the afternoon of Sunday, June 22nd, with Damon Golriz, Strategic Iran Analyst at the Hague Institute for Geopolitics, to discuss the US strikes on Iran that occurred at dawn.

We cover the current state of the Middle East, Iran's regime, the implications of US and Israeli actions, and the potential responses from Iran. Damon shares the historical context of the Iranian regime, the role of the Revolutionary Guard, and the regional consequences of ongoing conflict. Damon shares insights on the future of Iran and the importance of the Iranian diaspora in shaping a better future for the country.

Key Takeaways

• There appears to be a lack of strategy in US actions against Iran.
• The Iranian regime's survival is prioritized over any diplomatic negotiations.
• The Revolutionary Guard plays a crucial role in Iran's military and political landscape.
• The next 48 hours will be critical for Iran's response.
• The potential for chaos in the region is high if conflict escalates further.
• Damon emphasizes the importance of investing in the Iranian diaspora for future change.
• The conversation highlights the complexities of US-Iran relations and the historical context.
• Damon reflects on his personal journey from Iran to the Netherlands and its impact on his views.
• The discussion raises questions about the effectiveness of US foreign policy in the Middle East.
• Damon warns that the current situation could lead to significant regional instability. 

Chapters

00:00 The US Attacks Iran

03:33 Understanding the Iranian Regime: History and Structure

08:44 The Strategic Pillars of the Iranian Regime

13:15 Potential Outcomes: Iranian Responses and Regional Implications

17:37 The Role of the Revolutionary Guard and Internal Dynamics

21:53 The Future of Iran: Diaspora and Hope for Change

Keywords

Middle East, Iran, US involvement, Israeli politics, nuclear strategy, Revolutionary Guard, regional stability, regime change, international relations, diaspora

Show Notes

Links to Grant’s Book:

Dark PR: How Corporate Disinformation Undermines Our Health and the Environment

https://www.amazon.com/DARK-PR-Corporate-Disinformation-Environment/dp/1990263488

https://darajapress.com/publication/dark-pr-how-corporate-disinformation-harms-our-health-and-the-environment 

In this episode, I am joined by Grant Ennis, a scholar and author of the book Dark PR: How Corporate Misinformation Undermines Our Health and the Environment. Grant shares the playbook of "Dark PR" used by corporations to create and protect profitable "catastrophes by design," such as unhealthy food environments, rising road fatalities, and global warming.

Grant breaks down the nine devious frames corporations use to manipulate public perception and policy, shifting blame away from systemic issues and onto individuals. He argues that concepts like the "carbon footprint,"are tools of "victim blaming" that dilute support for meaningful political action, such as ending the $7 trillion in annual fossil fuel subsidies. The conversation explores why individual actions are often ineffective and how a focus on personal responsibility can undermine the collective organizing necessary for real change.

Here are the articles Grant referenced:

"The Tyranny of Structurelessness" by Jo Freeman

https://www.jofreeman.com/joreen/tyranny.htm

"If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and the Missing Revolution" by Vincent Bevins

https://vincentbevins.com/book2/

“Fuck Nuance” by Kieran Healy

https://kieranhealy.org/files/papers/fuck-nuance.pdf

Overview of the episode:

What is "Dark PR"? Grant defines Dark PR as malicious public relations efforts that obscure the truth and undermine public well-being.

Catastrophes by Design: Grant explains how government policies, like subsidies for sugar, driving, and fossil fuels, intentionally create societal crises like obesity, car crash fatalities, and global warming.

The Nine Devious Frames: Grant outlines the corporate playbook for maintaining these profitable catastrophes:

Denialism: There’s no problem

Post-Denialism: Claiming something bad is actually good for you (e.g., "Guinness is good for you").

Normalization: Making a crisis seem normal (e.g., calling global warming "climate change" to reduce public urgency).

Silver Boomerang: Promoting solutions that can backfire (e.g., telling people to exercise more to combat obesity, which can increase overeating)

Magic: Proposing unrealistic technological fixes (e.g., carbon capture storage).

Treatment Trap: Focusing on treating problems instead of preventing them (e.g., providing more insulin rather than fixing the unhealthy food environment).

Victim Blaming: Shifting responsibility from political structures to individuals (e.g., the carbon footprint).

Knotted Web: Arguing that a problem is too complex for simple solutions, which discourages clear-cut action. 

Multifactorial: Claiming a problem has too many causes to single one out, a tactic used by the tobacco industry to downplay the role of smoking in lung cancer. 

He continued with a discussion about Citizen Activism

Aggregate vs. Collective Action: Grant distinguishes between the ineffectiveness of aggregated individual actions and the power of organized, collective action that demands systemic change.

The Enemies of Collective Action:

Electoralism: The belief that democracy is only about voting, which leads to mobilization only around elections and demobilization afterward.

Mobilizationism: The misconception that simply showing up to protests is enough, rather than engaging in sustained, strategic organizing in smaller groups.

The Tyranny of Structurelessness: Grant discusses how social movements that reject formal hierarchies often become ineffective and unable to challenge highly organized industries.

Embracing Incongruence: Grant argues against purity tests for activists, stating that people should be encouraged to organize against harmful systems even if they work within them.

This is an interview with Belgian war correspondent and documentary maker Rudi Vranckx. Together with Hunter, he discusses the intersection of war, history, and journalism.

Show Notes

The Importance of Remembering History

An historian by training, Vranckx asserts that history is the root of the present. He expresses concern that a new generation of politicians, lacking a living memory of major wars, is dangerously dismantling the post-WWII structures of international cooperation. This fear motivated his documentary work, particularly a series on Belgian involvement in past conflicts like the Korean War. The goal was to capture the oral histories of aging veterans before their stories vanish, framing these events in their broader historical context. "To understand the war of now, you have to go back to the origins and where it started," he states.

The Journalist's Role and Moral Compass

Vranckx sees his role as holding a mirror to society, highlighting the scars of conflict. While he believes facts are paramount, he stresses that context is crucial. Using the example of Gaza, he notes that the conflict has deep roots that long predate the events of October 7th. In the fog of war and widespread disinformation, Vranckx maintains that human rights serve as his absolute "moral compass."

On Fatigue, Activism, and Power

Vranckx acknowledges the reality of "conflict fatigue" but insists on the journalistic duty to find new ways to engage the public's hearts and minds. He argues that upholding international justice is fundamental to maintaining justice on a national and individual level. According to Vranckx, true change comes from the bottom up, with civil society and grassroots movements acting as the only effective counterweight to corrupt power. He criticizes institutions that remain silent on critical issues for fear of losing funding, paraphrasing Martin Niemöller's warning about inaction: "And then at the end there is nobody to speak out when they come for me."

Global Security and the Power of Ideas

In his documentary "The New Iron Curtain," Vranckx observes that war has "come home" to Europe. He warns against a narrow, militarized view of security that focuses solely on an arms race. True security, he argues, also involves defending a society's values. "The biggest fear for Putin and Trump is not that the other one has a bigger gun, it's the ideas that the other one has." He laments the neglect of "soft power"—the influence of ideas, culture, and values—suggesting it can be more effective than military spending. He urges individuals to build resilience by investing in credible information and supporting fact-checking. "The facts are holy. The facts are the facts. There is no alternative facts like some lunatics try to say."

Human Stories and a Call to Action

Vranckx highlights the critical, yet often overlooked, role of women in conflict, calling women who fight for change at the grassroots level "true heroes." To make complex geopolitical situations understandable, he advocates for telling stories on a human level.

With a recent poll showing 60% of Belgians fear war is coming, Vranckx urges people not to be paralyzed by fear of a future apocalypse but to "deal with the war that is going on" now—the war of disinformation and the erosion of societal values. He calls for rebuilding the "fabric of society" through community. When asked what we can learn from people in conflict zones, his simple answer is: "Humanity."

He concludes that there is no "magic solution." The pursuit of truth and justice is not a quick victory but a "slow war of attrition." His final advice: "Be prepared."