Early tropical activity can create a lot of noise. A June storm near land may grab headlines, raise anxiety and spark big seasonal questions: Is this a sign of an active year? Does an early storm mean the season is ahead of schedule? Or is it just one weather event in a much larger climate pattern?

On this episode of HurricaneCenter, Michael Lowry joins the program to help answer those questions. Lowry brings a rare combination of tropical forecasting, storm surge, broadcast and emergency management experience. He currently serves as Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert at WPLG-TV Miami, and his background includes work with the National Hurricane Center, The Weather Channel, FEMA and emergency management.

The conversation centers on the difference between short-term tropical weather and longer-season signals. Early storms can be important, especially when they produce flooding, coastal water issues, gusty winds or public confusion. But they do not always say much about what the peak of the season will bring. Lowry helps frame what forecasters look for instead: large-scale steering patterns, ocean heat, vertical wind shear, moisture, pressure patterns and where storms are forming.

The episode also explores communication. Early-season systems can be messy, sheared, lopsided or close to land. Those storms may not look impressive on satellite, but they can still produce meaningful local impacts. That is where clear messaging matters: rainfall, storm surge, coastal flooding and power interruptions can occur even when a storm is not a classic major hurricane.

This is a useful episode for weather professionals, emergency managers, coastal residents and anyone trying to understand how to read the tropics without overreacting to every early-season development.

Key Takeaways

• Early storms do not automatically define the rest of hurricane season.
• A named storm can be impactful even if it is weak, sheared or poorly organized.
• The best seasonal clues often come from large-scale patterns, not a single storm.
• Storm surge and rainfall risk can be more important than category or appearance.
• Communication matters most when the atmosphere produces messy, borderline systems.
• The public should prepare for the season as a whole, not just react to the first storm.

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In this episode of HurricaneCenter, the panel opens with the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season already affecting the Texas coast. Bill Reed walks through the early impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur, including tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, heavy localized rainfall, elevated tides and coastal water issues from Galveston to Bolivar and southwest Louisiana. Dr. Hal Needham joins live from the Galveston Seawall, where rough Gulf conditions and strong winds are already being felt, but he stresses that the main impact from Arthur is rainfall flooding rather than a major storm surge event.

The featured guest is Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, who breaks down the latest CSU outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Unlike recent years that leaned well above normal, the updated forecast calls for a somewhat below-normal season: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. With Arthur now named, that leaves 10 additional named storms in the forecast.

Phil explains why the forecast has shifted lower: El Niño. He walks through how warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific can change global wind patterns, increase sinking motion over the Atlantic and, most importantly, strengthen vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. That shear can tilt and disrupt tropical systems, making it especially difficult for long-lived major hurricanes to develop.

The conversation also covers why weak, short-lived storms like Arthur can still form during El Niño years. Phil explains that El Niño tends to suppress stronger storms more than weak tropical storms, especially in the deep tropics. That means the season can still produce impacts, especially from close-to-land or higher-latitude systems, even when the overall basin activity is expected to be lower.

Phil also discusses CSU’s forecasting process, including historical analog years, statistical models, climate model guidance, ACE, western Atlantic landfall probabilities and new AI-driven forecasting tools. He notes that the strongest El Niño impacts are typically felt later in the season, especially in September and October, when background shear increases and Caribbean development often becomes much less favorable.

The episode closes with a look back at Arthur’s real-time impacts along the Texas coast, a preview of Hal Needham’s upcoming Extreme Explorations documentary work, and a tease for next week’s guest, Mike Lowry.

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Into the Storm: Tracking Hurricanes with Mark Sudduth

When a hurricane makes landfall, the forecast tells us what may happen. But storm documentation shows us what actually happens — where wind, water and infrastructure meet in real time.

In this episode of HURRICANE CENTER, the hosts talk with Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack, one of the most recognized hurricane documentarians in the country. Through HurricaneTrack and the Hurricane Intercept Research Team, Sudduth has spent decades documenting tropical storms and hurricanes along the U.S. coast using field observations, remote cameras, specialized equipment and live storm coverage.

The conversation explores what it takes to prepare for a hurricane field deployment, how remote camera technology has changed storm coverage and why documenting landfall impacts matters for forecasters, emergency managers, media organizations and the public.

Hurricane coverage is not only about dramatic video. It is about helping people understand storm surge, destructive wind, flooding, power loss and the real-world consequences that happen where a hurricane comes ashore. By placing technology in the path of the storm, HurricaneTrack has helped bring audiences closer to hurricane impacts while reducing the need for people to be in dangerous locations during landfall.

In This Episode, You Will Learn

•  How Mark Sudduth built HurricaneTrack into a hurricane documentation platform. 
•  Why remote cameras have changed the way hurricanes are covered. 
•  What goes into preparing for a landfall field deployment. 
•  How storm documentation can help the public understand hurricane impacts. 
•  Why real-time video and field observations matter beyond traditional forecasts. 
•  How technology can bring viewers closer to landfall without putting more people in danger. 
•  What HurricaneTrack has learned from years of documenting storms along the coast. 

About the Guest

Mark Sudduth is the founder of HurricaneTrack and the Hurricane Intercept Research Team, which was founded in 1998 to collect data and report on hurricanes and tropical storms as they make landfall along the U.S. coast. HurricaneTrack uses specialized meteorological equipment, remotely operated video cameras and field documentation to capture hurricane impacts. Sudduth also joined FOX Weather as an exclusive storm tracker in 2022 and has nearly 30 years of experience documenting hurricanes and other high-impact weather events. 

Key Listener Takeaway

Seeing hurricane impacts clearly can change how people understand risk. Forecasts tell us what could happen, but field documentation and remote cameras show the reality of landfall — storm surge, wind damage, flooding, infrastructure stress and the conditions people should avoid. HurricaneTrack helps connect the science of forecasting with the real-world consequences of the storm.

Resources

•  HurricaneTrack 
•  Hurricane Intercept Research Team 
•  National Hurricane Center 
•  National Tropical Weather Conference 
•  HURRICANE CENTER podcast archive 

About HURRICANE CENTER

HURRICANE CENTER takes listeners inside the science, decisions and real-world impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. Featuring conversations with forecasters, researchers, emergency managers, storm documentarians and resilience experts, the podcast helps communities better understand hurricane risk and prepare before, during and after landfall.

A production of the National Tropical Weather Conference.

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Subscribe to HURRICANE CENTER wherever you listen to podcasts, and share this episode with someone who lives or works in hurricane country.

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Learn more about the National Tropical Weather Conference: HurricaneCenterLive.com

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How the National Hurricane Center Forecasts Hurricanes — Jamie Rhome

When a hurricane threatens, people want answers: Where will it go? How strong will it become? How much time is left to prepare? Behind every official forecast is a complex process involving satellite observations, aircraft data, computer guidance, emerging artificial intelligence tools and expert analysis.

In this episode of HURRICANE CENTER, the hosts speak with Jamie Rhome, Deputy Director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, about how hurricane forecasting and risk communication continue to evolve. The discussion explores improved observations and modeling, artificial intelligence guidance, rapid intensification, storm-surge forecasting and the importance of helping people understand the full range of hazards before a storm arrives.

Rhome also addresses one of the biggest communication challenges in hurricane preparedness: the public often focuses on a single category number or the center line of the forecast cone, while the greatest local risk may come from storm surge, flooding, destructive winds, extended power loss or waiting too long to act.

In This Episode, You Will Learn

•  How the National Hurricane Center evaluates new forecasting tools and artificial intelligence guidance. 
•  Why better observations and modeling are important for forecasting hurricane structure and rapid intensification. 
•  How storm-surge forecasting is improving for coastal communities. 
•  What the forecast cone communicates — and what it does not. 
•  Why a storm category alone does not define local danger. 
•  How waiting for a more favorable forecast can reduce the time available to prepare. 
•  Why official, trusted information matters when a tropical threat develops. 

About the Guest

Jamie Rhome is Deputy Director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. He helps guide the center’s long-term strategy, annual planning and operational execution. His NHC career has included work as a surface analyst, marine forecaster, hurricane specialist and storm-surge specialist.  

Key Listener Takeaway

A hurricane forecast is not just about the projected path of the storm’s center. It is about understanding the hazards that may affect your location — including storm surge, flooding, wind, power outages and the shrinking window to make safe decisions. When a storm threatens, focus on official forecasts and local impacts rather than waiting for a forecast that feels less threatening.

About HURRICANE CENTER

HURRICANE CENTER takes listeners inside the science, decisions and real-world impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. Featuring conversations with forecasters, researchers, emergency managers and resilience experts, the podcast helps communities better understand hurricane risk and prepare before, during and after landfall.

A production of the National Tropical Weather Conference.

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Subscribe to HURRICANE CENTER wherever you listen to podcasts, and share this episode with someone who lives or works in hurricane country.

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Learn more about the conference: HurricaneCenterLive.com

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A hurricane or extreme weather event does not end when the wind subsides or the rain moves away. When power, communications, transportation or supply chains are disrupted, communities can face cascading problems that continue long after the initial hazard has passed.

In this episode of HURRICANE CENTER, the hosts speak with Sunny Wescott, Chief Meteorologist and Executive Director of the Geospatial Intelligence Information Sharing and Analysis Center, GEOINT ISAC, about the hidden consequences of extreme weather and the importance of sharing information before disasters escalate.

The conversation explores how GEOINT ISAC supports collaboration by connecting decision-makers with studies, best practices, products and tools that can improve preparedness and critical-infrastructure resilience. Wescott also discusses the importance of creating open lines of communication across the emergency-management, weather and infrastructure communities, including the work of the Extreme Weather Information Network Group, Ex-Wing.

When the power goes out, the immediate impact may be obvious. But the deeper threat can involve the systems communities depend on every day: energy, telecommunications, emergency response, transportation and supply chains. Understanding those connections before a storm arrives can help communities make better decisions and recover more effectively.

In This Episode, You Will Learn

•  Why extreme weather impacts can continue long after the immediate storm threat has passed. 
•  How power outages and infrastructure disruptions can create cascading risks for communities. 
•  What GEOINT ISAC does to encourage information sharing and improve resilience planning. 
•  Why studies, best practices, mapping products and operational tools must be shared across public and private sectors. 
•  How Ex-Wing supports communication and collaboration around extreme weather risk. 
•  Why preparedness requires understanding the systems people depend on, not only the forecast itself. 

About the Guest

Sunny Wescott is a Chief Meteorologist specializing in extreme weather impacts to emergency response, supply chains and critical infrastructure. She serves as Executive Director of the Geospatial Intelligence Information Sharing and Analysis Center, GEOINT ISAC, where she supports actionable intelligence, collaborative workflows and risk analysis for critical-infrastructure and supply-chain resilience. Her current public biography also identifies her as Deputy Program Manager for FEMA’s National Hurricane Program.  Listener Takeaway

A storm’s most dangerous impacts may not end at landfall. When electrical power, communications and other critical systems fail, the consequences can affect safety, emergency response and recovery. Sharing trusted information before a disaster is one of the most important tools communities have to reduce those cascading risks.

Resources Mentioned

•  Geospatial Intelligence Information Sharing and Analysis Center, GEOINT ISAC 
•  Extreme Weather Information Network Group, Ex-Wing 
•  FEMA National Hurricane Program 
•  National Tropical Weather Conference 
•  HURRICANE CENTER podcast archive 

About HURRICANE CENTER

HURRICANE CENTER takes listeners inside the science, decisions and real-world impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. Featuring conversations with forecasters, researchers, emergency managers and resilience experts, the podcast helps communities better understand hurricane risk and prepare before, during and after landfall.

A production of the National Tropical Weather Conference.

Follow and Share

Subscribe to HURRICANE CENTER wherever you listen to podcasts, and share this episode with someone who lives or works in a hurricane-prone community.

Suggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected]
Learn more about the National Tropical Weather Conference: HurricaneCenterLive.com

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Warren Faidley presents at NTWC25

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Tim Marshall's presentation at NTWC25. Registration for NTWC26 is open at hurricanecenterlive.com

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We wrap up the hurricane season with just the crew. Our guest cancelled.  

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We talk with Eric Mannix, Andy Oliver, and Ed DiFilippo about weather instruments, data gathering and more!

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We talk with George about his experiences with resilience and producing his documentary.  He has a special gift for the first 10 listeners!  Here's the link: https://pro.speakerhub.com/speaker-feedback/?qr=3a30639f-a157-4c66-8890-66143a59a84e  Write a review and get a link to view Last House Standing for FREE.

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