The Atlantic hurricane season is entering the period when tropical activity has historically increased sharply—but what does that mean for the weeks ahead?

Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University joins HurricaneCenter for an in-depth discussion about the state of the Atlantic basin, the science behind seasonal hurricane forecasts and the environmental factors that can either support or suppress tropical development.

The conversation explores what accumulated cyclone energy tells researchers, why total storm numbers do not determine the impact of a season and why landfall risk remains difficult to predict months in advance.

Dr. Klotzbach also discusses how forecasters evaluate ocean temperatures, vertical wind shear, atmospheric moisture and large-scale climate patterns as the season progresses.

Most importantly, the episode explains why coastal residents should focus less on a single forecast number and more on maintaining a practical hurricane plan throughout the season.

00:00 — Entering the heart of hurricane season
Why late August and September command so much attention.

03:30 — How seasonal forecasts are created
The climate and ocean signals used to estimate basin-wide activity.

08:00 — What the forecast numbers really mean
Why named-storm and hurricane totals are only part of the story.

12:30 — Accumulated cyclone energy explained
How ACE measures the combined strength and duration of tropical systems.

17:00 — Warm water is not the entire equation
The importance of wind shear, atmospheric moisture and stability.

22:00 — Why hurricane landfalls remain difficult to predict
The difference between forecasting activity and forecasting impact.

27:00 — What could change during the remainder of the season
The atmospheric patterns researchers continue to monitor.

32:00 — Gulf of Mexico and rapid intensification concerns
Why storms close to land can create compressed preparation timelines.

36:30 — The most important preparedness message
Why residents should not judge their risk by how busy or quiet the basin appears.

40:30 — Final thoughts

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Meteorologists spend their careers explaining what hurricanes can do. Scott Withers experienced that danger firsthand.

While reporting from the Fort Myers area as Hurricane Ian made landfall on September 28, 2022, Scott and his photographer were overtaken by catastrophic storm surge. Water surrounded their vehicle, escape routes disappeared and the team found itself facing the very threat Scott had warned viewers about for days.

Scott joins Alex Garcia on HurricaneCenter to tell the story behind his book, Ian’s Surge—a minute-by-minute account of the forecast, the reporting assignment and the fight to survive one of the most destructive hurricanes in Florida history.

The conversation explores:

• How Scott entered meteorology and field reporting
• Why journalists deploy into hurricanes
• What the forecast showed before Ian’s landfall
• How quickly conditions deteriorated
• The moment Scott realized the team was in serious trouble
• Escaping a vehicle surrounded by storm surge
• The strangers who risked their own safety to help
• What it was like to remain exposed during the hurricane
• The physical and emotional aftermath
• Why Scott waited before telling the complete story
• How he reconstructed the timeline for Ian’s Surge
• What meteorologists misunderstand about public risk perception
• Why “storm surge” can remain too abstract for many viewers
• How Hurricane Ian changed Scott’s approach to warnings
• The lesson he wants coastal residents and journalists to remember

Hurricane Ian struck Florida’s southwest coast with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour and produced catastrophic storm surge in communities including Fort Myers Beach. Scott describes Ian’s Surge not simply as a weather book, but as a survival story about what happens when scientific knowledge collides with the reality of a disaster.

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Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner explains why predicting rainfall is only part of the challenge—and how new forecasting tools, hydrology and lessons from historic floods are changing the way we understand risk.

Jeff Lindner joins Hurricane Center Live for a wide-ranging conversation about tropical weather, extreme rainfall and the rapidly changing science of flood forecasting.

Lindner is a meteorologist with the Harris County Flood Control District, where rainfall forecasts have to become something much more operational: How much water will fall? Where will it go? How quickly will rivers, bayous and streets respond—and when does that become dangerous? The Flood Control District continues to identify Lindner as one of its meteorologists and has long used his expertise in flood operations and public warning. 

One of the most interesting parts of the discussion looks at the limits of traditional weather modeling and the next generation of higher-resolution and machine-learning guidance. Jeff talks about the challenge of turning increasingly sophisticated rainfall forecasts into useful hydrologic information—especially when small differences in where the heaviest rain falls can produce dramatically different outcomes.

The conversation also reaches beyond hurricanes. Lindner discusses his recent field work examining historic flash floods in Colorado and an intriguing comparison between the catastrophic 1976 flood and a much larger rainfall event decades later. The lesson: rainfall totals alone don't necessarily determine the size of a flood. Duration, terrain, soil conditions, watershed response and changes to the landscape all matter.

It is a reminder that forecasting the storm is only the beginning. Understanding what the water does next may be just as important.

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USAA's Andrew Freeman joins HurricaneCenter Live to discuss hurricane preparedness, resilience, and how communities can better prepare before the next storm. Plus, a look at the current state of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and why a quiet season isn't a reason to let your guard down.

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Hurricane Hunter aircraft have transformed our understanding of tropical cyclones, but there are still parts of a hurricane that are too low, too turbulent and too dangerous for a crewed aircraft to explore.

That is where a new generation of uncrewed aircraft systems is changing the science.

In this episode of the HurricaneCenter Podcast, we speak with Dr. Joe Cione, lead meteorologist with NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division and a leader in the development and deployment of emerging hurricane-observation technology.

Dr. Cione explains why the lowest portion of a hurricane—the boundary layer immediately above the ocean—is so important to understanding storm structure and intensity. It is the region where the hurricane interacts directly with the sea, transferring heat, moisture and momentum, yet it has historically been one of the most difficult areas for scientists to observe.

The conversation explores how small aircraft launched from NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes can descend into the eye, eyewall and lower levels of a tropical cyclone while transmitting measurements back to researchers.

We also discuss:

• Why hurricane intensity remains more difficult to forecast than track
• What scientists still need to learn about rapid intensification
• Why the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere matters
• How uncrewed systems complement aircraft, satellites, dropsondes and ocean platforms
• The engineering challenges of operating inside hurricane-force winds
• How observations are eventually incorporated into forecast models
• The importance of collaboration among government, academia and private industry
• What the next generation of hurricane reconnaissance may look like
• How better observations can ultimately support earlier and more confident emergency decisions

Dr. Cione has spent decades investigating the hurricane environment and developing ways to collect measurements from locations that were once inaccessible. His work has included the Coyote, Altius-600 and Black Swift uncrewed aircraft systems.

A NOAA team that deployed an Altius aircraft into Hurricane Ian’s eyewall received the Department of Commerce Gold Medal for scientific and engineering achievement. Later Black Swift missions demonstrated extended flight time, communication range and the ability to operate within extreme hurricane conditions.

This episode offers a rare look at the technology, science and human persistence behind the effort to better understand one of the atmosphere’s most powerful phenomena.

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When a hurricane strikes, the first images are often wind, rain, storm surge and damage. But for many families, the hardest part begins after the cameras move on: finding help, repairing unsafe homes, navigating recovery programs and trying to rebuild a sense of normalcy.

On this episode of the HurricaneCenter Podcast, Jose Garcia of Rebuilding Together Greater Florida joins the conversation to discuss the recovery side of hurricane preparedness. The discussion focuses on what happens after disaster strikes, why safe housing is central to recovery, and how community partnerships can help homeowners - especially vulnerable families - move from damage toward resilience.

Jose shares perspective on the real-world challenges families face after storms: roof damage, water intrusion, unsafe living conditions, financial barriers, contractor concerns and the emotional toll of a long recovery. The episode also looks at how preparedness, mitigation and rebuilding stronger can reduce risk before the next hurricane season.

The bigger message: hurricane preparedness is not just about tracking the cone. It is about what families, neighborhoods, nonprofits, local governments and partners do before and after the storm to protect people and restore homes.

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When a hurricane threatens, the forecast is only part of the job. The bigger challenge is helping people understand what the storm means for them - without exaggeration, confusion or panic.

In this episode of HurricaneCenter, meteorologist Bryan Norcross joins the program for a conversation about one of the hardest parts of hurricane season: communicating risk in a way that is urgent, accurate and trusted.

The discussion centers on the balance between warning people early enough to act and avoiding language that makes every storm sound like the worst-case scenario. For broadcasters, forecasters, emergency managers and public information officers, that balance matters. If the message is too soft, people may not prepare. If it is too loud too often, people may tune it out.

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In this episode of HurricaneCenter, Meteorologist John Gordon joins the program for a focused conversation about indirect fatalities from extreme weather - the deaths and injuries that happen after the wind, rain, tornado, flood or hurricane has passed. The discussion reframes severe weather safety around the recovery period: carbon monoxide poisoning, flooded roads, hydroplaning, heat exposure, cleanup injuries, medical disruption and the risky decisions people make when power is out and stress is high.

Extreme weather deaths are often counted by the headline hazard - hurricane, tornado, flood, heat or winter storm. But many of the most preventable fatalities occur indirectly. They happen when people drive into flooded roads, lose control on wet pavement, run generators too close to the house, work outside in dangerous heat, use unsafe cleanup tools, or lose access to power-dependent medical needs. This episode focuses on the part of storm safety that can be overlooked: what people do next.

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Power outages are one of the most common after-the-storm problems - and for many families, a

portable generator becomes the bridge between disruption and recovery. But generator safety has to

come before convenience.

In this episode of HurricaneCenter, Guillermo Rodriguez, PGMA Marketing Committee Chair, joins the

program for a focused conversation on portable generator safety. The discussion centers on carbon

monoxide, the colorless and odorless gas that can build up quickly when a generator is operated in or

near an enclosed space.

The key message is simple: take the generator outside. Not in the garage. Not on a porch. Not under a

carport. Not near an open window. Portable generators should be used outdoors, far away from

doors, windows and vents, with exhaust directed away from the home and any occupied space.

The episode also highlights the importance of planning before the outage happens. Families should

know where the generator will sit, how it will be connected, what it can safely power, which cords are

rated for outdoor use, and where carbon monoxide alarms are installed.

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Early tropical activity can create a lot of noise. A June storm near land may grab headlines, raise anxiety and spark big seasonal questions: Is this a sign of an active year? Does an early storm mean the season is ahead of schedule? Or is it just one weather event in a much larger climate pattern?

On this episode of HurricaneCenter, Michael Lowry joins the program to help answer those questions. Lowry brings a rare combination of tropical forecasting, storm surge, broadcast and emergency management experience. He currently serves as Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert at WPLG-TV Miami, and his background includes work with the National Hurricane Center, The Weather Channel, FEMA and emergency management.

The conversation centers on the difference between short-term tropical weather and longer-season signals. Early storms can be important, especially when they produce flooding, coastal water issues, gusty winds or public confusion. But they do not always say much about what the peak of the season will bring. Lowry helps frame what forecasters look for instead: large-scale steering patterns, ocean heat, vertical wind shear, moisture, pressure patterns and where storms are forming.

The episode also explores communication. Early-season systems can be messy, sheared, lopsided or close to land. Those storms may not look impressive on satellite, but they can still produce meaningful local impacts. That is where clear messaging matters: rainfall, storm surge, coastal flooding and power interruptions can occur even when a storm is not a classic major hurricane.

This is a useful episode for weather professionals, emergency managers, coastal residents and anyone trying to understand how to read the tropics without overreacting to every early-season development.

Key Takeaways

• Early storms do not automatically define the rest of hurricane season.
• A named storm can be impactful even if it is weak, sheared or poorly organized.
• The best seasonal clues often come from large-scale patterns, not a single storm.
• Storm surge and rainfall risk can be more important than category or appearance.
• Communication matters most when the atmosphere produces messy, borderline systems.
• The public should prepare for the season as a whole, not just react to the first storm.

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