A century-old tech company just took a gut punch from Wall Street. A century-old oil giant hasn't had an exciting headline in years. Ten years from now, which one do you actually want to own?

In this episode, Greg takes the long view on two very different dividend payers. The first is IBM ($IBM), a stock that ran from the low $200s to a high near $325 over the past year as its quantum computing story caught fire. It then dropped back to around $205 after disappointing contract delays spooked the market. Greg walks through why the selloff isn't the end of the story: IBM's debt has improved, revenue is growing again after years of stagnation, and at roughly 17 times earnings, he argues investors are no longer paying for the quantum computing option.

The second is Chevron ($CVX), a stock with none of IBM's drama and, in Greg's view, almost all of the certainty. Diversified across exploration, refining, and chemicals, with a dividend track record that held even when oil prices went negative in 2020, Chevron represents a different kind of long-term bet. It's not a call option on a breakthrough, but a compounding cash flow machine that is also a quiet beneficiary of AI.

Two very different companies, one shared idea: real wealth is built by holding through the boring years, not by chasing the exciting ones.

TOPICS COVERED

[00:41] Introduction: Two Long-Term Stories, Two Different Bets
 [03:04] IBM ($IBM): From Story Stock to Speed Bump
 [04:47] Inside IBM's Business: Software, Consulting, and Red Hat
 [08:41] The Quantum Computing Bet Behind the Stock
 [13:44] IBM's 10-Year Dividend Growth Math
 [16:24] Chevron ($CVX): The Cash Flow Machine
 [18:17] Chevron's Dividend Track Record and Financial Strength
 [20:40] Diversification: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals
 [21:15] Chevron as a Natural Gas and AI Play
 [23:49] Why Chevron Over Exxon ($XOM)?
 [25:45] Two Long Views, One Lesson in Patience
 [28:02] Final Takeaway: It's All About the Waiting

________

 📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth 

Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. 

📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market 

📧 Questions or comments: [email protected]

Send us Fan Mail

________ 

Resources:

📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management
📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models 

________

If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show.

Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

________ 

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.