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________

Consumer staples look reliable with strong brands, steady cash flow, and good yields. But dividends can’t outrun revenue forever, and across this sector the growth engine has stalled.

In this episode, Greg begins with a quick recap of how 2025 has unfolded so far, highlighting strong income growth for the model portfolio, a handful of growth names driving market performance, and value strategies continuing to lag. From that backdrop, he digs into the disconnect between the appearance of safety in consumer staples and the underlying fundamentals that truly support dividend growth. 

Using Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), General Mills ($GIS), Colgate ($CL), Procter & Gamble ($PG), and Church & Dwight ($CHD) as case studies, Greg shows how companies with high ROIC and defensive business models can still become no-growth traps. These companies were once consistent outperformers with impressive dividend histories, but the economy evolves and so have their growth profiles.

 

Topics Covered:

03:05 – Comparing dividend growth to the S&P 500

05:43 – Investing styles cycle and chasing rarely works

07:07 – Surface numbers can be misleading

11:00 – Kimberly-Clark: attractive metrics masking zero growth

16:42 – General Mills: high yield but barely growing

18:36 – Colgate: excellent margins, slow dividend progression

19:58 – Procter & Gamble: financial strength, but limited growth

21:03 – Church & Dwight: a past outlier that doesn’t meet our targets

23:57 – Kimberly-Clark’s planned Kenvue acquisition

29:36 – The mosaic of evidence investors should pay attention to

 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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RESOURCES:

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Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models

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________

Wall Street’s creativity knows no bounds, especially when it comes to selling safety or income. In this episode, Greg revisits Warren Buffett’s timeless wisdom to uncover who’s “swimming naked” in today’s market. 

Drawing on Rob Arnott and Edward McQuarrie’s recent CFA research on risk and investor psychology, he explains how both fear of loss and fear of missing out drive market behavior far more than models admit. Greg dissects several headline-grabbing products, from “high income” S&P 500 ETFs and 77% yielding Nvidia options funds to the Dual Directional Buffer ETF and the “Magnificent Seven Snowball,” revealing how they offer the illusion of safety or income while eroding long-term returns. He closes with a Buffett-style case study on Occidental Petroleum and Berkshire Hathaway’s recent deal, underscoring the power of simple, steady cash flow over engineered complexity.

As Leonardo da Vinci said, “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication,” and it is also one of the surest ways to compound wealth.

 

Topics Covered

[00:00:41] – Who’s swimming naked? The illusion of risk-free returns
 [00:02:31] – Understanding risk and fear in markets: Rob Arnott’s research
 [00:06:22] – How fear of loss and FOMO distort risk premiums
 [00:09:19] – The rise of high-income ETFs: chasing yield in disguise
 [00:12:32] – The Nvidia ($NVDA) income strategy ETF: 77% yield, but at what cost?
 [00:16:09] – Dual Directional Buffer ETF: the illusion of protection
 [00:21:14] – The “Mag 7 Snowball” structured note: Wall Street’s creative packaging
 [00:25:47] – Why these structures guarantee Wall Street wins
 [00:26:45] – Buffett, Occidental ($OXY), and the value of consistent cash flow
 [00:32:20] – Simplicity, cash flow, and the sophistication of staying patient

 

For more on dividend growth investing or to request a free portfolio review, email [email protected].

 Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Send us a text

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

RESOURCES:

Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management

Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models

Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.

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How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.

________

When a stock’s price is falling, its yield is sky-high, and there’s plenty of doubt, it looks like a classic value trap. Does it ever make sense for dividend growth investors to walk into that trap? Sometimes, what’s under the hood tells a very different story.

In Episode 51, Greg revisits UPS ($UPS), a company we last covered years ago but is now back on our radar for entirely new reasons. Rising wages, Amazon contract changes, and global trade tariffs have cut the stock price in half since 2022, sending its dividend yield toward 8%. At first glance, it looks like the market is pricing it for a dividend cut.

But step behind the headlines, and the story gets more compelling: UPS continues to post solid margins, generates strong cash flow, and has the scale and efficiency to remain a leader in global logistics. Even if a dividend cut occurs, investors may still come out ahead with sustainable yields and renewed dividend growth potential. Greg breaks down the scenarios, risks, and catalysts that make UPS a compelling story to consider.

Topics Covered:

•  [00:03:32] Why UPS looks like a high-yield “problem child” but may still be a dividend growth play
• [00:06:20] UPS’s history: growth in revenue, profits, and dividends since 1999
• [00:09:58] The “trifecta” of headwinds—union wage hikes, Amazon contract cuts, and tariffs
• [00:12:36] Comparing UPS vs. FedEx ($FDX), Amazon ($AMZN), USPS, and DHL in market share and profitability
• [00:19:57] How AI could improve delivery efficiency
• [00:21:12] Business metrics, profitability, debt profile, and why UPS’s financing signals investor confidence
• [00:25:27] The dividend dilemma: can UPS sustain its payout, or is a cut coming?
• [00:27:44] Three scenarios: steady dividend, improved valuation, or a cut that resets growth
• [00:31:47] Long-term catalysts: tariffs, Amazon shifts, and global trade recovery
• [00:33:37] What research firms (Morningstar, Value Line) are projecting for UPS
• [00:34:56] Final take: UPS as a value play that still pays you to wait

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

RESOURCES:

Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management

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Dividend investing isn’t about settling for slow growth. To grow your income, you need to own growing companies, and the real wins come when you find them at a discount. The trick is seeing past the headlines and recognizing value even in businesses the market assumes are at risk of disruption. 

In this milestone 50th episode, Greg kicks things off with a Wall Street Journal investor quiz that highlights the timeless power of compounding. From there, the focus shifts to Accenture ($ACN), the world’s largest consulting firm. Despite short-term headwinds from government budget cuts and fears of AI disruption, Accenture’s strong balance sheet, growing dividend, and unique position in the consulting landscape make it a compelling candidate for long-term dividend growth investors. Greg breaks down the numbers, the risks, and the upside scenario if Accenture turns AI into an accelerant for its business model. 

Topics Covered: 

 03:13 – The century-long compounding lesson: Coca-Cola, Nvidia, Altria, and Apple
 05:15 – Berkshire Hathaway’s glitch and 60 years of outperformance
 07:26 – Introducing Accenture ($ACN): A long-held but renewed idea
 08:48 – Why the stock has fallen from $400 to the mid-$200s
 10:39 – AI disruption fears: risk or opportunity?
 11:33 – Morningstar and Value Line’s perspectives on Accenture
 14:34 – Historical dividend, earnings, and revenue track record
 16:25 – Margins, balance sheet strength, and net debt position
 19:03 – Return on invested capital: consistent discipline over decades
 20:08 – Acquisition strategy: why Accenture has succeeded where others fail
 21:59 – Conservative debt issuance and bond market confidence
 24:56 – Profitability metrics: margins remain steady through cycles
 26:14 – Accounts receivable and customer credit strength
 27:41 – Why the federal contract risk looks like a buying opportunity
 28:10 – The 10-year dividend model and forward growth scenarios
 30:01 – Potential upside if AI becomes a growth driver
 31:45 – Valuation: PE, price-to-sales, and free cash flow yield at decade lows
 32:48 – Risks: client concentration, acquisitions, regulation, and AI disruption
 34:04 – Final thoughts

 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

RESOURCES:

Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management

Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models

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How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. 

In what may be the largest M&A deal of 2025 so far, Union Pacific ($UNP) has made a formal bid to merge with Norfolk Southern ($NSC). The proposed merger not only furthers the consolidation of the quasi-monopolistic railroad industry but also raises important questions about what it means for investors. Given the time we’ve spent highlighting Union Pacific as a model of dividend growth, we believe this surprise announcement warrants an early-stage analysis. 

In this Express Mail episode, Greg covers:

[01:12] Merger Details
Union Pacific makes a surprise $20B bid for Norfolk Southern—despite their past capital discipline.

[03:54] Financial Analysis: Debt, EBIT, and Credit Ratings
How the merger affects profitability, interest coverage, and debt loads.

[10:29] Lessons from Canadian Pacific’s Kansas City Merger
A similar deal that didn’t go quite as planned—and what it might signal for UNP.

[15:36] Dividend Outlook: What Now?
We break down whether the combined railroad can still deliver 7% dividend growth.

[17:59] Final Thoughts
Is Union Pacific now a total return story, not a dividend growth story? Why we’re holding through the uncertainty. 

 📩  Want your dividend portfolio reviewed?

Email a list of your holdings (no dollar amounts necessary) to [email protected].

We’ll rate it from 1 to 5 and include a few helpful bullet points to show how well you're aligned with long-term dividend growth principles. 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

RESOURCES:

Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management

Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models

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How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. 

If you’ve ever struggled to stay disciplined in a world chasing growth or yield at all costs, this episode is for you. Whether you’re a seasoned dividend investor or new to the strategy, clarity, intention, and long-term thinking are essential to compounding your wealth over time. 

In this month’s episode, Greg reflects on a personal story about trying to sell his daughter’s old Honda CR-V. What begins with a frustrating lowball offer turns into an unexpected reminder of the core principles behind successful dividend investing. It’s a story that sets the stage for a broader discussion on the power of focus and the cost of distraction. 

Greg then connects this lesson to recent decisions within the portfolio:

• Why we sold Emerson Electric ($EMR), even after years of ownership and recent price gains.
• A quick update on Rémy Cointreau ($REMYY) and why the story has improved.
• Whether Stanley Black & Decker ($SWK) is a value play or a value trap.

📩  Want your dividend portfolio reviewed?

Email a list of your holdings (no dollar amounts necessary) to [email protected].

We’ll rate it from 1 to 5 and include a few helpful bullet points to show how well you're aligned with long-term dividend growth principles.


Topics Covered:

00:41 - Core theme of the episode: Clarity in investing, in mindset, and in strategy

02:01 - New offer: Get your dividend portfolio rated 1–5 by our team

03:17 - The $400 CR-V story and what it reveals about opportunity cost

11:32 - Applying the lesson: Compounding capital vs. chasing small gains

12:46 - Why clarity matters when dividend-based strategies lag

15:08 - Three paths: Pure growth, high yield, and dividend growth

16:08 - Why we sold Emerson: Weak dividend growth, poor capital efficiency

21:49 - Rémy update: Positive developments in the China tariff situation

23:23 - Stanley Black & Decker review: Great yield, but fading margins
 
30:21 - Dividend growth math: What would it take for Stanley to meet our hurdle?
 
34:32 - The truck analogy: Growth vs. yield vs. the dividend growth “sweet spot”
 
36:03 - Final thoughts: Clarity and discipline are non-negotiable

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

RESOURCES:

Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management

Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models

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The argument has long been made that venturing beyond America’s borders will offer investors higher yields. Many foreign companies do pay attractive dividends, but they lack consistency and predictable growth—factors that have kept us from investing overseas. 

But in this episode, we break the mold and head to the vineyards of France. Greg explores the under-the-radar story of Rémy Cointreau ($REMYY), the cognac maker behind the iconic Rémy Martin brand. What makes this story remarkable isn’t just the 3% dividend yield or the potential for earnings to normalize. It’s the value hiding in plain sight: aging inventory that becomes more valuable with time. With a wide moat and one of the most unique inventory structures we’ve seen, Rémy stands out as a compelling value play with rare downside protection. Markets are mostly efficient—but every now and then, a story slips through the cracks. 

 Topics Covered:

01:46 Exploring Foreign Dividend Opportunities 

02:40 Discovering Remy: A Value Play 

03:31 A First Look at Rémy’s Dividend and Valuation 

06:01 Performance History and the Power of Modest Growth 

08:11 Understanding the Cognac Market 

11:29 How Cognac Is Made and Why It Matters 

16:07 What Is Wrong with Remy? 

18:38 Cash Flow, EBIT History, and Financial Strength 

22:28 The Inventory Advantage 

25:18 Future Growth Potential and Valuation Scenarios 

27:49 Three Catalysts for Re-Rating 

33:32 Final Thoughts and Takeaways 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

RESOURCES:

Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management

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While dividend growth remains the core of what we do, it’s not the only path to building an income stream. In times of market distress, opportunities emerge that are simply too compelling to ignore. When venturing into troubled waters, the key is to stay disciplined and unemotional. Volatility may test you, but the potential rewards can be worth it. 

In this episode, Greg explores two distinct approaches to finding value from an income perspective. In the first half, he discusses business development corporations (BDCs), which often offer eye-catching yields north of 10%. Using Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp. ($OCSL) as a case study, he unpacks how BDCs are structured, where their income potential comes from, and why they carry above-average risk. More importantly, he shares why patience and preparation are key to capturing value when these high-yield opportunities go on sale. 

In the second half, we shift gears back to a more traditional name for dividend growth investors. Greg introduces Sysco Corp. ($SYY), a 50-year dividend payer in the essential world of food distribution. Unlike the high-yield, high-volatility world of BDCs, Sysco represents steady, well-managed growth with consistent operations. Even though the stock appears to have been in a holding pattern over the past few years, it fits squarely into our 10-year framework. 

In both cases, price discipline is essential. 

Topics Covered:

01:46 – Introduction to BDCs (Business Development Corporations)

05:18 – Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp Case Study 

14:57 – Knowing What You Own: Risk and Return in Distressed Markets 

16:23 – When and How to Buy BDCs 

19:22 – Total Return Recap from a Past Investment in Oaktree 

24:37 – Transition to Traditional Dividend Growth: Enter Sysco Corp 

28:17 – The 10-Year Model: Can Sysco Double? 

30:08 – Margin & Capital Efficiency Strengths 

32:52 – Comparison to Competitors 

35:05 – Valuation and Price-to-Sales History 

35:29 – Risks: Cyclicality & Debt Load

 38:58 – Why a “Boring” Food Distributor Might Outperform 

41:39 – Wrapping Up: Patience, Price, and Knowing What You Own 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

RESOURCES:

Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management

Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models

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Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 

Almost everyone knows that tariffs and trade wars have sent global markets spiraling, with the Dow down 17% and the S&P 500 down 20% from their highs, based on our recording date. While technically that implies we have entered a bear market, it also means better prices for long-term cash flow. It is human nature to get nervous when markets seem to be on the brink of panic, but dividend growth investors should see times like these as a gift. 

 

In this episode, Greg tackles the tough headlines and sinking sentiment in today’s markets. As recession fears grow and the market experiences significant volatility, Greg explains why focusing on sustainable cash flow and quality companies provides stability for long-term investors. From investor psychology to long-term GDP trends, Greg discusses how disciplined dividend investing turns market panic into wealth creation. Later, he highlights our recent purchase of Union Pacific ($UNP) as proof of concept. 

EDIT: In the episode, Greg mentions that paying $30 for $1 of earnings is about a 2.5% earnings yield. This comment was made in error; the correct number is a 3.33% earnings yield.

Topics Covered: 

• [01:00] Why focusing on cash flow provides clarity in a chaotic market
• [02:48] First quarter portfolio performance and the power of staying invested
• [05:00] Reframing a bear market: buying cash flow at a discount
• [06:55] How GDP and earnings trends support long-term optimism
• [10:17] Why market corrections test your investment mindset
• [11:50] Comparing stock ownership to rental property — and why we forget it's the same
• [16:33] Real numbers that contradict the media narrative (household debt, corporate cash, etc.)
• [24:52] New position: Why we bought Union Pacific and what makes it a dividend powerhouse
• [28:40] The case for quality, patience, and diversification during uncertainty
• [31:33] Index funds, dividend ETFs, and staying positioned for the rebound
• [34:01] The most dangerous investing phrase: "It's different this time"

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

RESOURCES:

Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management

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Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 

After Williams Sonoma reported earnings before market open on March 19th, 2025, we saw their results as an excellent example of how to execute a dividend growth strategy on a day-to-day basis. While we have covered $WSM in several previous episodes, it is a case study on dividend growth investing. In what normally takes 10+ years to deliver to investors, Williams Sonoma has provided us with attractive dividend growth and total return in less than 3 years. 

In this "express mail" episode, Greg looks at Williams-Sonoma's latest earnings and how recent weakness in the stock price could be a long-term positive for total return. He analyzes how if the stock goes lower, there is room for more share repurchases, which boosts dividend growth and earnings growth. Additionally, he points out that if the stock turns around and goes much higher again, we may consider selling more of the stock. As we stand somewhere in the middle, Greg concludes by looking at where he would buy into the stock again.

00:55 Special Episode: Williams Sonoma Earnings Update

01:24 Williams Sonoma: A Case Study in Dividend Growth

02:33 Strategic Decisions and Market Reactions

05:22 Evaluating Dividend Growth and Future Prospects

12:27 Conclusion and Investment Strategy

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

RESOURCES:

Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management

Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models

Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.

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