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You, the investor, must choose between investing in two companies based on their financial results over two years. One has steady revenue and earnings growth, alongside decent dividend growth. The other experiences moderate financial decline, but boasts strong dividend growth. Given this information beforehand, which would be the better investment?

In our final episode of the year, Greg revives the classic game show Let's Make a Deal to illustrate that even if you know the future, there will always be some unknowable things. Later, Greg continues this theme by discussing broader market valuation, and predictions from various analysts for 2025 and beyond. To tie everything together, Greg concludes the episode by reflecting on a TED Talk that emphasizes the importance of a long-term strategy and the pitfalls of short-term thinking.

Happy Holidays from The Dividend Mailbox Team

00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox
00:46 Let's Make a Deal: Investment Choices
02:47 Behind Door Number One: A Declining Company
04:54 Behind Door Number Two: A Growing Company
05:45 Comparing the Two Companies
08:05 Revealing the Companies and Market Insights
12:34 When to Sell: Strategies and Considerations
19:16 Market Predictions and Analyst Opinions
27:43 Long-Term vs Short-Term Investing
33:38 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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The last time the S&P 500 dividend yield was sitting at 1.17% was in February of 2001. Many investors remember the stretched valuations 23 years ago, and even more so, how the following year proved to correct that exuberance. While stock prices are currently hovering around all-time highs, us dividend growth investors targeting a yield of 2.5-3% may find challenges in this environment.

Given this, and the uncertainty surrounding the recent presidential election, Greg spends episode 41 reviewing the foundational pillars behind our investment strategy. Even with low yields, the next 10 years of performance can be boiled down to relatively simple math. As GDP expands, corporate earnings grow, which in turn gives investors increasing dividend checks. Through several illustrations of what that looks like in your portfolio, Greg concludes that the dividend growth strategy is alive and well. Later, he reviews some recent actions we have taken, highlighting decisions on selling part of Emerson ($EMR), adding to Hershey ($HSY), and starting a position in Union Pacific ($UNP).

00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox
00:46 Current Market Overview
001:54 The Drivers Behind The Dividend Growth Strategy
005:10 Historical Performance Analysis
007:52 Future Predictions and Assumptions
010:28 Dividend Growth vs. Buybacks
12:15 Portfolio Growth & Return Illustration
20:16 Market Yields, Challenges, and Opportunities
27:46 Our Recent Portfolio Actions
35:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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The corporate life cycle is an important yet often overlooked factor in investing. Like all things, companies age over time, with each phase having its own pros and cons. 

In this episode, Greg explores the corporate life cycle's impact on dividend growth investing. Using research from Morgan Stanley and Aswath Damodaran, he covers various stages of a company's life, including startup, young growth, high growth, mature growth, mature stable, and decline— with examples from companies like Rivian, Nvidia, Microsoft, PepsiCo, GE, IBM, Intel, AT&T, and Tesla. Highlights include the prolonged profitability in maturity phases, industry-specific aging rates, and risks associated with corporate debt and large acquisitions. Greg emphasizes understanding a company's phase for strategic investment decisions and the critical role of suitable CEOs.

00:00 Introduction
01:12 The Importance of Understanding the Corporate Life Cycle
02:10 Morgan Stanley's Five Stages of the Corporate Life Cycle
02:58 Key Metrics in the Corporate Life Cycle
05:39 Profitability and Debt in Different Stages
08:37 Cost of Equity and Capital in Mature Companies
11:10 Aswath Damodaran's Six Stages of the Corporate Life Cycle
14:08 Examples of Companies in Different Life Cycle Stages
20:15 Dividend Investing: High Growth to Mature Growth
21:48 Mature Stable Phase: Dividend Income and Growth
22:56 Challenges in Mature Stable Phase
24:24 Decline Phase: Managing Declining Cashflow
25:44 Narrative vs. Numbers in Company Growth
29:08 Pricing and Valuation Across Growth Phases
31:59 CEO Roles in Different Growth Phases
35:59 Conclusion: Investing Across Lifecycle Stages

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When a company’s stock price has struggled for years, a change in management may be just what it needs to get back on track. Even still, new management can’t fix everything.  

Historically, Starbucks has been an impressive growth story, generating phenomenal wealth for investors. Despite its profitability and strong cash flows, recent challenges have raised questions about whether those days are long gone. In this episode, Greg analyzes the Starbucks story as a potential dividend growth candidate and what the future may hold. He discusses the implications of Starbucks' new CEO (who previously turned around Chipotle), and the company's strategy to address operational inefficiencies. 

Later, Greg transitions to an update on Chevron which has been part of the model portfolio since 2010. Although higher dividend yields can signal problems for a company, Chevron’s resilience makes it worth considering adding to the position. 

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Mailbox
00:47 Starbucks: A Familiar Name with a Compelling Story
03:33 Starbucks' Financial Performance and Challenges
05:22 Evaluating Starbucks as a Dividend Growth Investment
11:33 Starbucks' Debt and Cash Flow Analysis
27:10 Conclusion on Starbucks and Transition to Chevron
28:04 Chevron: A Reliable Dividend Growth Story
29:41 Chevron's Financial Health and Future Prospects
35:41 Final Thoughts and Wrap-Up

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In our August episode, Greg interviews longtime friend and fellow financial advisor Kent Hughes. Kent has worked in the industry for over 40 years, focusing his investment strategy on quality and market indices. During his career as an advisor, Kent's expertise has earned him placement on both the Forbes and Barron's Top Wealth Advisor lists.
 
Greg and Kent begin the episode by discussing the evolution of the investment industry over the past four decades, the impact of technological advances on market information, and investor behavior. The duo also delves into market expectations, secular bull markets, and the potential effects of AI on investing.
 
Following their conversation, Greg mentions that he was able to speak with the investor relations department at Snap-on, and concludes the episode by providing answers to the questions we had about the company from the previous episode. 
 
 
Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox
 00:45 Interview with Kent Hughes: A Journey Through the Financial Industry
 03:33 Changes in the Financial Industry Over 40 Years
 05:35 Lessons Learned and Biggest Mistakes
 08:13 Impact of AI and Investor Expectations
 12:29 Economic Outlook and Market Predictions
 17:21 Commercial Real Estate Concerns
 19:25 Forecasting Future Returns
 25:50 Investment Strategies and Dividend Growth
 32:36 The Importance of Dividend Growth
 34:07 Historical Performance and Market Trends
 36:27 Understanding Compounding and Market Sentiment
 39:37 Favorite Investment Books and Influential Figures
 43:40 International Investing Considerations
 49:20 The Competitive Advantage of Patience
 55:43 Snap-on: A Potential Investment Opportunity
 01:00:53 Closing Thoughts and Key Takeaways

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In this episode of The Dividend Mailbox, Greg takes an in-depth look at Snap-on (SNA), a company with a rich history of tool innovation and consistent dividend payments since 1939.  He discusses the company's evolution from automotive tools to specialized equipment for various industries, its unique franchise model, and its financing arm. By examining Snap-on's business model, financial performance, valuation, management discipline, and potential risks, he makes the case that this seemingly "boring" business checks almost all the boxes and is a compelling investment idea for dividend growth investors.  

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To start our fourth year of The Dividend Mailbox, Greg is joined by Daniel Peris, author of The Ownership Dividend: The Coming Paradigm Shift in the U.S. Stock Market and Head of the Income and Value Group at Federated Hermes. Daniel's deep historical perspective and expertise offer valuable insights into the future of dividend growth strategies and the importance of sustainable dividend investing.

Their conversation covers a range of topics including:

• Historical context and the evolving dynamics of dividend growth investing.
• Challenges and opportunities in the dividend space, including the impact of interest rates and market cycles.
• The role of stock buybacks and their effectiveness in shareholder returns.
• Strategies for managing dividend cuts and maintaining a high and rising income stream.
• The foundational importance of cash flow for all investors.

Follow Daniel on X/Twitter @HistoryInvestor

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In today's episode, Greg dives into a practical application of our dividend growth strategy by discussing a recent buy, a watch, and a sell. 

He starts the episode with Hershey (HSY), exploring why this classic chocolate maker made it into our portfolio despite soaring cocoa prices. Although it may sound like a boring name,  companies like this can generate outsized long-term returns. 

For the watch candidate, Greg turns his attention to CVS Health (CVS). Despite its financial strength and attractive valuation, he discusses CVS's coming headwinds. Sometimes when there is a lot of negative sentiment surrounding a company, there is potential to make a lot of money. 

Lastly, Greg explains his decision to trim our position in Emerson Electric (EMR). Even though it is a long-time dividend growth stalwart and has seen strong price performance recently, it no longer meets our dividend growth criteria.

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Between immediate information on the Internet and minute-by-minute stock quotes at your fingertips, investors appear to be more infatuated with price appreciation than anything else. In contrast, prior to the 1990s, investors primarily focused on earning returns through a cash flow of dividends. Even though there has undoubtedly been a shift from cash-focused investing to a market fixated on price performance, cash flows play a critical role in assessing company valuation.

In this episode, Greg examines wisdom from "The Ownership Dividend: The Coming Paradigm Shift in the US Stock Market." Through several excerpts, he exposes how important dividends are to the structure of the market, investor goals, and company valuation. In the second half of the episode, Greg looks at Williams-Sonoma which has appreciated 200% since we first bought it two years ago. He analyzes whether its recent outperformance should warrant selling it to lock in gains.

EDIT: In the episode, Greg comments that our Williams Sonoma position has appreciated 300%, however, it has only appreciated 200%. The stock prices were given, so simple calculations could identify this error. 

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Check out our Union Pacific Investment Report

In most cases, holding quality stocks for the long term tends to play out in favor of the investor. However, if a company’s prospects change, there are situations where exiting a position can be warranted. 

In this episode of The Dividend Mailbox, Greg outlines our decision-making process behind selling off a portion of our IBM position. What started as a turnaround play transformed into a potential value trap. Using IBM as an illustration, Greg provides insight into the complexities of owning dividend growth investments and taking advantage of opportunities to exit positions that don't meet your expectations. 

Plus, get a sneak peek into next month's episode featuring a success story with Williams Sonoma, highlighting the potential rewards of high-conviction investments in the dividend growth landscape.

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If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected].

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