Petrochemical producers will come under increasing feedstock pressure as older refineries close and a new wave of mega-refineries in the Middle East and Asia open.

- With demand fairly flat, more older/smaller refineries will close

- Europe, US chemicals will face fierce competition from Asia, Middle East mega-refineries

- Mega-refineries will add 4-5m bbl/day of capacity

- Refinery closures will pressure naphtha supply

- Poor jet fuel demand holding back refinery sector recovery

- Around 500,000bbl/day of permanent closures in Europe in the last year

- At least five more refineries still idled

- Forecast recovery to only 90% of 2019 levels, may never fully recover

- Naphtha is tight due to strong petrochemical and gasoline demand

- Very strong driving season forecast in US and Europe thanks to “staycations”

- OPEC+ production cuts have helped push oil price up

- Now in reverse with 650,000bbl/day extra production from OPEC+ in June

- Strong bounce back in demand as economies recover

- OPEC+ is fragile, ICIS forecasts $68/bbl average for 2021

- US shale production capped at 11m bbl/day, damaged by pandemic losses

- US no longer the world’s swing producer, starved of investment

- Logistics, supply chain crisis likely to persist until developing world vaccinated

- Unprecedented price differentials between regions

SINGAPORE (ICIS)—In this episode of the ICIS Asia podcast, editors Damini Dabholkar and Jasmine Khoo, editor in charge of the Middle East and Asia polyether polyols markets, speaks on recent developments.

• Middle East polyols demand tepid as customers procure cautiously

• Ample Asian supply exerts pressure on downward prices, to continue till August

• Upstream PO sentiment sluggish, weighing on polyols market confidence

• COVID-19 resurgence around Asia weakens buying interest on top of seasonal lull

Supply tightness has eased for much of the oxo-alcohols chain, though some limitations remain.

This includes major producer BASF's force majeure on n-butanol (NBA) - a key feedstock for the rest of the oxo-alcohols chain.

Acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech discusses market conditions with oxo-alcohols editor Nicole Simpson, glycol ethers editor Eashani Chavda and butyl acetate (butac) editor Nick Cleeve.

LONDON (ICIS)—Senior Editor Caroline Murray and Senior Editor, Recycling, Matt Tudball discuss supply and demand in the European polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and recycled PET markets, and what the drop in virgin PET price levels could mean for supply in the R-PET sector.

The orthoxylene (OX) - phthalic anhydride (PA) - plasticizers value chain has seen a number of hiccups on the supply front in the first half of 2021 against buoyant demand, with tightness characterizing all three markets in the first quarter and the start of the second quarter.

Some supply curtailments are receding in June all along the chain, and ICIS editors Nick Cleeve, Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela and Nicole Simpson have been sounding the market on the extent and the sustainability of the demand in the months to come.

The chemical industry faces an uphill battle to transform itself quickly enough for a low carbon future, but it is a battle it must win.

- Study by Germany’s nova Institute suggests 100% of plastics production could be low carbon by 2050

- But faces formidable supply chain and technological challenges

- Developing world will fail to improve recycling without massive investment

- Strong demand growth may absorb waves of new polyethylene (PE) capacity

- Europe seeing strong chemicals demand, some markets normalising

- Supply chain disruption continues to crimp supply

- Coronavirus resurgence in southern China hits ports

Africa and Turkey polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) editor Ben Lake talks through the latest price and market trends.

There is also time for an outlook for the coming months and a question and answer session.