POLICY SEMINAR

Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara

Co-organized by IFPRI, USAID Famine Early Warning Network (FEWS NET), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

NOV 29, 2023 - 7:30 TO 9:00AM EST

Climate scientists are anticipating an El Niño event in the upcoming boreal winter season (November 2023–February 2024), ending the recent three-year La Niña. In collaboration with USAID FEWS NET and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, IFPRI is hosting a presentation on the potential impact of the upcoming El Niño on the global agrifood system, with special emphasis on low-income countries in Africa South of the Sahara. The event will be organized around four short talks. Part 1 will examine the latest scientific outlook for the 2023 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole climate patterns. Part 2 will focus on El Niño’s impact on global markets, particularly rice markets. Part 3 will provide a sub-national assessment for Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia of potentially affected crops and rural populations. Part 4 will present an economywide socioeconomic impact analysis of El Niño at the national level in selected focus countries, including Malawi, using IFPRI’s RIAPA model. The presentation will conclude with a summary of potential hotspots and proposals for policy options, as well as a review of knowledge gaps, points of uncertainty, and priorities for future research and collaboration.

Overview and Global Implications

Weston Anderson, Assistant Research Scientist at University of Maryland (UMD) and NASA, Earth Sciences Division

Karyn Tabor, Agroclimatology Advisor, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Global Markets with a Focus on Rice

Joseph Glauber, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Abdullah Mamun, Senior Research Analyst, IFPRI

Vivian Hoffman, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Sub-National Implications with a Focus on Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia

Liangzhi You, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Liz Ogutu, Policy Analyst, IFPRI

Socioeconomic Analysis for Malawi

James Thurlow, Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), IFPRI

Joachim De Weerdt, Senior Research Fellow / Malawi Country Program Leader, IFPRI

Andrew Jamali, Research Manager, National Planning Commission, Malawi

Moderator

Channing Arndt, Senior Director, Transformation Strategies, CGIAR and IFPRI

Links

Food And Agriculture Organization Of The United Nations (FAO): https://www.fao.org/home/en

Latin America And The Caribbean: Food Security And Agrifood Trade Website: https://lac.ifpri.info/

La Seguridad Alimentaria Y El Comercio Agroalimentario En América Latina Y El Caribe: https://www.fao.org/documents/card/es/c/cc8592es

More about this seminar: https://www.ifpri.org/event/implications-el-ni%C3%B1o-202324-africa-south-sahara

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