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Zapiro: Marshalling Tito.

MID-TERM BUDGET ANALYSIS: Mr Hard-edged Honesty Mboweni offers mostly blood, toil, sweat and tears. Did we mention Honesty? "This is where we are and this is what we must live with."

That was the comment from Finance Minister Tito Mboweni, in shirtsleeves and tie loosened, a couple of hours after delivering his maiden Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). That the jacket was ditched did not detract from the authority of the newly minted Cabinet minister who - and this is something not to forget - has nothing to prove.

Hours earlier his MTBPS delivered a hard message of slowing revenue in a low-growth economy with stubbornly high unemployment, with not very much good news, although government scratched together R32.4-billion for education, health and social spending.

There was "nothing for mahala", Mboweni later told journalists, and so South Africans had better get used to the "user pay" principle. The national health insurance could be paid for with a 2% value-added tax (VAT) hike, but that was a political and ideological conversation to be had. And there needed to be a conversation around the public service wage bill that would take up just over a third of government revenue. It wasn't necessarily about cutting numbers - those could stay if remuneration was cut. But that is a conversation that needs to be had given the unsustainable level of the public sector wage bill.

But perhaps that's his years in the private sector speaking. Compensation is paid on performance and a score of 4.5 was below par - "you simply packed up and left, without telling your colleagues". There's no such thing as a 13th cheque that's just paid as part of a salary package, Mboweni said in sharing his surprise when he signed on the dotted line as finance minister.

Mboweni's public sector wage bill has already antagonised trade unions and their federations, as have the MTBPS statements about the reconfiguration of State-owned Entities (SoEs), including "a long-term plan to restructure Eskom" and to deal with its R350-billion government-guaranteed debt and radical steps over loss-making SAA, which nevertheless got a R5-billion bailout to be paid before March 2019.

But it seems Mboweni's mantra should be: "There should be no holy cows!"

The finance minister didn't mince his words either over reducing some of the benefits ministers and their deputies enjoyed, be it cars or the number of office staff, or cutting the size of Cabinet: "No more than 25 (ministries), probably 20."

There was simply no money to sustain a 70-plus-strong executive.

"It's a political conversation that does not reside with the Treasury. It resides with the president."

That re-engineering of government, announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa in his maiden State of the National Address (Sona) in February, remains under way. While there is no deadline, the MTBPS on Wednesday said funding had also been reprioritised "to build capacity in the new research on policy advisory unit in the Presidency".

The MTBPS also raised the need to improve government project management and contract management.

The Giyani water project which ballooned from R40-million almost a decade ago to R4-billion now - "a cesspool of corruption", is how Mboweni described it - will be a test for accountability. National Treasury and Water and Sanitation are working to investigate those identified by the auditor-general for dodgy dealings.

And Mboweni has called in the soldiers, obviously with approval of minister and president, to help clean up the polluted Vaal Dam. It's a case of identify the problem, act rather than sit in an inter-ministerial committee for further discussions, and so forth.

That's some hard-edged honesty, not often heard in government, particularly one where for the past few years ANC factionalism played out in often bruising Byzantine machinations that left governance paralysed as everyone was watching which way the political winds blew.

Mboweni, a member of the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC), straddles an insider/outsider role as former labour minister in the Mandela administration, then South African Reserve Bank governor for a decade to 2009, turned private businessman.

By the way, he may be finance minister now, but he still likes being called "Gov", or the 8th governor of the South African Reserve Bank, while current Governor Lesetja Kganyago was dubbed "the 10th Governor" by the now finance minister.

In many ways that combination of public and private sector experience of Mboweni's mirrors that of his current boss, President Cyril Ramaphosa, the National Union of Mineworkers founding trade unionist turned businessman after leading the constitution-writing process in the first democratic Parliament.

And no, Mboweni didn't want to return to government.

"I actually did not want this job. I was doing very well in the private sector, thank you very much... I was free from Thursday to Monday," he told journalists post-MTBPS.

"I had more time with mu lambs, dogs, chicken, cabbage, spinach... There were other things that were growing on my farm (but) I chopped them before the Constitutional Court decision. I should have allowed them to grow. They were not for me, they were my caretaker's who had been planting certain greenies not allowed at the time."

He was doing well when the call came.

"I can tell you, I resisted to the best of my ability. But he used to be the secretary-general of the NUM, and he out-negotiated me."

And Mboweni said he hoped that was the last time journalists asked him this question. Yes, he was grumpy at first.

"Once you signed that (oath of office) thing, no matter how grumpy you are, you put that grumpiness aside and get to work."

And that is what Mboweni did. The rands and cents of the MTBPS were settled a while ago, given the budgeting cycle, but his speech was also settled in good time. Tuesday night he got his usual amount of sleep - from midnight or 01:00 to 07:00, a habit he picked up at university:

"Don't call before 8am, we'll fight."

What Mboweni presented and represented in Parliament on Wednesday is in essence the new narrative - honesty and change. It's another step in the political narrative Ramaphosa is attempting to craft, also with the new dawn Thuma Mina rhetoric, in government while consolidating ANC unity despite a clear pushback by disgruntled elements.

In many ways Wednesday's MTBPS was playing kick for touch. Some of it relates to the behind-the-scenes tussles now unfolding over where the February 2019 Budget must go - it is in an election year, and there will be pressure to up spending. Some of it also relates to the stuff that must happen within government and without to allow for genuine partnerships with the private sectors that it is hoped will side-step problems that have beset the public sector, including mismanagement and State Capture.

Mboweni appears to have garnered firm supporters within the governing ANC, and government. The emphasis on getting the private sector in appears to echo at least in some circles of the governing ANC. This is part of the unfolding contestation, within government and the governing party.

There's a reason Ramaphosa has called on Mboweni. The question that will be central: does Mboweni have the political capital to prevail in the fights that will unfold? DM

DAVOS IN THE DESERT: As Saudi investment conference kicks off, SA maintains ambiguous stance on Saudi relations. Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative is billed as a platform for "doing business for good".

But as the glitzy conference opened in Riyadh on Tuesday, it could not escape the shadow of the row in which Saudi Arabia is embroiled as a result of the murder of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

High-profile delegates boycotting the conference include International Monetary Fund (IMF) boss Christine Lagarde and Virgin billionaire Richard Branson, while multinationals like JP Morgan, Uber and Ford also pulled out before the event.

A speaker list of 150 has been reportedly edited down to 120, though details of the conference programme are sketchy - possibly as a result of the conference's website being hacked on Monday to display criticism relating to Khashoggi's disappearance.

Saudi media outlets were intent on hailing the conference as a triumphant success, reporting that so-called "mega-deals" totaling $50-billion were inked on the first day alone.

But the conference's first speaker - Saudi billionaire Lubna Olayan - opted to address the elephant in the room head on, denouncing the Khashoggi scandal as "alien to our culture and DNA".

At the time of her remarks, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was not yet in the room. When he arrived later, however, the New York Times reported that he was given a standing ovation.

Information about South Africans attending the event has, perhaps unsurprisingly, been hard to come by.

In past years, a logical guest would have been Saudi Arabia South Africa Business Council chair Iqbal Surv, head of Sekunjalo Investments. Dr Surv told Daily Maverick on Tuesday that he was no longer the council chair, however, although the council's out-of-date website appears to still be hosted by Sekunjalo.

On the side of government, State Security Minister Dipuo Letstatsi-Dupe was among those supposed to be attending the conference before President Cyril Ramaphosa reportedly pulled the plug on the trip at the last minute.

Letstatsi-Dupe was also scheduled to meet with the head of Saudi crime intelligence, Khalid bin Ali al Humaidan, to discuss "issues of mutual interest". The Presidency has made no statement on the reason for cancelling her trip.

Department of Trade and Industry spokesperson Sidwell Medupe told Daily Maverick that "nobody from DTI" is attending the conference - but he was at pains to stress that the reason for non-attendance was not connected with the Khashoggi murder.

"We don't go there because it's clashing with our conference," Medupe said, in reference to Ramaphosa's International Investment Conference which is scheduled to take place in Sandton from Thursday.

Business Unity South Africa took a similar line on the matter when contacted by Daily Maverick.

"BUSA did not plan to send a delegation to this conference given the timing and the fact that it was scheduled to take place during our South African Investment Conference," BUSA CEO Tanya Cohen said.

"We are not aware of any BUSA leaders attending the conference, but there may be business people that have decided to attend in their independent company capacities."

One such individual is reportedly Investec co-CEO John Green, who CNN included in a list of international executives still attending "Davos in the Desert" despite boycott calls.

CNN reported that it based its list on "the latest information available from conference organisers and companies". Investec had not responded to Daily Maverick's request for comment on Green's attendance by deadline.

Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA), meanwhile, has been silent on the topic of the conference - despite the fact that the body has previously taken strong stances on other political issues. In January 2018, CEO Bonang Mohale encouraged delegates to Davos to boycott Donald Trump's address to the forum on the basis of Trump's remarks about "shithole" countries in Africa.

Seemingly the only South African executive to take a public stand on the Saudi conference thus far has been Sygnia CEO Magda Wierzycka. She tweeted: "Decided not to attend the Saudi Arabian 'Davos in the Desert conference'. We must support free media even if through small gestures".

Business between South Africa and Saudi Arabia is booming, with bilateral trade between the two countries reaching R55.4-billion in 2017, according to DTI figures.

A DTI statement following Minister Rob Davies' visit to Saudi Arabia in early October reaffirmed the kingdom as "South Africa's strategic partner in the Middle East region".

And while the Department of International Relations and Co-operation (Dirco) released a tepid statement on 17 October expressing "concern" about the disappearance of Khashoggi, it appears that government is cautious of rocking the Saudi boat too much in the face of a promised $10-billion investment from Riyadh.

DTI spokesperson Medupe told Daily Maverick that during Minister Rob Davies' October visit to Saudi Arabia, Davies' Saudi counterpart was invited "openly" to attend the forthcoming International Investment Conference in Sandton.

Medupe could not confirm how many Saudi delegates were expected to attend the local conference, but he said that it was likely that Saudi investors in South Africa's energy sector would attend.

"This is not government to government; it's based on investors," Medupe insisted.

In Saudi Arabia, however, the distinction between individual investors and government is often hard to discern. The Saudi Arabian Military Industries firm - which is reportedly in talks to buy a chunk of Denel - is an initiative of the Saudi Public Investment Fund, for instance.

Yet if the South African government and private sector are revealing a wariness to step on Saudi toes, the same cannot be said for other spheres of South African society.

Veteran arms deal campaigner Terry Crawford-Browne is one civil society figure who has been vocal in his condemnation of the proposed Denel deal, while individual leaders in the local Muslim community have also come out strongly against Saudi Arabia's recent actions.

In a khutbah (sermon) delivered at the Claremont Main Road Mosque last week, Imam Rashied Omar called on the public to apply pressure to the South African government to "speak out against human rights violations committed by the Saudi monarchy", and suggested that local Muslims considering undertaking voluntary pilgrimages to holy sites in Saudi Arabia should be "gently discouraged" from doing so.

"If many people begin to adopt such a protest action of not undertaking voluntary hajj and umrahs as long as the Saudi monarchy continues its war mongering in Yemen and elsewhere in the Middle East, the despotic regime will begin to feel the pressure both financially and morally," Omar said.

These are sentiments yet to find echo from South African government or business: likely to be as a result of significant financial entanglements with Saudi Arabia.

But those hoping that boycott actions against the kingdom could prompt a greater adherence to human rights from Riyadh may be disappointed.

Thus far, it appears that even the boycott of "Davos in the Desert" by high-profile CEOs may have been more symbolic than authentic. Journalists at the conference on Tuesday reported that many international firms had simply opted to send anonymous mid-level executives instead.

The New York Times reported: "Many bankers kept their name tags obscured behind their ties or decided that this was not the year to speak to news media." DM

Who's doing what in the South African M&A space? JSE Listed Companies

Allied Electronics' subsidiary Netstar has signed a joint venture agreement with international company C Ahead Technologies to offer insurance and fleet telematics in India. Netstar's intellectual property will be introduced into the underpenetrated Indian vehicle telematics market which is expected to grow by 25% per annum.

Stadio is to acquire Prestige Academy for an undisclosed sum. Prestige is a private higher education provider with 27 registered qualifications offered at its campus in Bellville and 4 registered qualifications offered at is campus in Centurion.

Howden Africa has released details of its firm intention to acquire all shares not held by Howden Group South Africa and James Howden & Godfrey Overseas. The company will repurchase the shares through a scheme of arrangement and a conditional general offer. Shares will be repurchased for a cash consideration of R44.00 per share. The company will delist from the JSE if the Scheme becomes operative or the General Offer becomes wholly unconditional and is implemented.

Long4Life has disclosed it has entered the healthcare sector with the acquisition of a 61% stake in ClaytonCare, a sub-acute rehabilitation medical group.

Santova has acquired 100% of the issued share capital of UK international freight company SAI Logistics from S Phillips and A Hart. The purchase price will be paid in cash and will be funded through a combination of internal cash reserves and a new R75 million medium term loan facility. A total of 2,62 million (R49 million) will be paid over a three year period subject to the fulfilment of a profit warranty.

Investec Asset Management through its African Private Equity Fund has made its first investment in the African education sector with the acquisition of a controlling stake in Richfield, a private sector tertiary education provider in South Africa. The size and cost of the stake was not disclosed.

Intu Properties has disclosed to shareholders that it has received an indicative proposal from a Consortium of 215 pence per share in cash, subject to an adjustment for dividends. The company has granted the Consortium access to certain due diligence materials in order to advance discussions regarding a possible firm intention announcement. The Consortium has until November 1, 2018 to announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company.

eXtract has advised shareholders that it would be in the best interests of the company to delist from the JSE subject to securing the requisite approval from shareholders and the JSE. Inhlanhla Trust Investments will make a general offer to acquire all eXtract shares from shareholders who do not wish to hold shares in an unlisted structure. The offer will be made for a cash consideration of R6.00 per eXtract share.

Unlisted Companies

Public Investment Corporation and Pelo Agricultural Ventures, a black-owned investment company, are set to acquire a majority shareholding in Karan Beef for up to R5,2 billion. Karan Beef operates the largest cattle feedlot and abattoir on the continent. While SA is the company's largest market, it exports to a number of Middle East countries as well as Egypt, Mauritius, Seychelles, China and Hong Kong.

Echo Service Provider, the local independent integrator of advanced network and cloud computing services, has merged with the ISP operations of Gondwana International Networks (GIN) across Africa. The combined entity will operate in nine markets with its own networks and leverage off the pan-regional reach of its more than 35 partner networks across the continent.

DealMakers is SA's M&A publication.www.dealmakers.co.za

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Altron resumes dividends as restructuring pays off. The ICT group has paid its first dividend in over two years after selling non-core businesses and reducing debt

Altron has paid its first dividend in two years after a restructuring which saw it sell non-core assets and cut debt. The IT and electronics group says it's also made good progress in expanding its operations geographically and now generates 57% of its revenue offshore following three recent acquisitions.

The group's Powertech Transformers business was sold at the end of July and it's reached an agreement to dispose of Altech UEC/Multimedia, the last non-core control asset. This is expected to be wound up by the end of next month.

It says its improved performance over the last 18 months, which has resulted in top-line growth, improved profitability better working capital management and a much-improved balance sheet, has allowed it to resume dividends for the first time since February 2016.

Reporting back for the six months to end-August, revenue from continuing operations increased by 44% to R9.8 billion and continuing earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose 16% to R686 million. Normalised headline earnings per share jumped 25% to 71c a share and it's declared an interim dividend of 28c per share.

It cut net debt to R1.4 billion from R1.9 billion in February due to increased cash generation. Net debt was further reduced to R991 million once adjusted for the disposal of group assets and deferred receipts balances.

Altron remains well-positioned for continued growth and execution of its One Altron strategy of offering end-to-end solutions to its extensive customer base," the group said. "We continue to focus on organic growth, supplemented by selective acquisitions."

Its shares rose 1.2% to close at R16.90 yesterday.

Thank you to all those who managed to watch or attend our Interim Results presentation. If you missed the presentation, you can download it here: #AltronResults pic.twitter.com/VAnx2kNuKf

-- Altron (@AltronGroup) October 25, 2018

AB InBev halves dividend as it tackles debt. The global brewing giant has a long way to go to meet its objective of reducing net debt to two times EBITDA

Anheuser-Busch InBev plans to slash its annual dividend in half as it tackles its high debt pile. The global brewer says its board has approved an interim dividend of "0.8 per share and has proposed a final dividend of "1 for a total annual dividend payment of "1.80, down from "3.60 last year. Its shares fell sharply.

AB InBev reported disappointing third-quarter sales in South Africa, where April's VAT increase and a number of petrol price hikes have cut into the disposable income of beer drinkers. Revenue declined by mid-single digits as volumes fell by low single digits. The brewer also faced tough markets in Brazil and Argentina. However, good growth in own beer volumes in Europe, Mexico and many other African countries compensated for these three markets.

Revenue from its global brands, which include Budweiser, Stella Artois an Corona, improved by 7.7% globally and 10.6% outside of their home markets. Over the nine months to end-September, they were up 8.7% globally and 13.3% outside of their home markets.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose 7.5% as margins expanded by 116 basis points to 40.3%. Normalised profit fell 37% to $1.61 billion due to mark-to-market losses linked to the heading of its share-based payment programs. Stripping those out, it would have been 5% down at $2.23 billion. Earnings per share also fell by 37% to 82c.

Following the dividend rebase of 50%, AB InBev said it expected dividends to grow in the future in line with the non-cyclical nature of its business. In the short term, however, it said growth would be modest given the importance of deleveraging.

It's aiming to reduce debt to a ratio of two times net debt to EBITDA and says it will prioritise debt repayment to meet this objective. At the end of June, net debt had increased to $108.8 billion, giving it a net debt to normalised EBITDA ratio of 4.87 times. However, it said its cash flow was seasonal, with the majority generated in the second half of the year. AB InBev paid $103 billion for SABMiller two years ago.

While recognising volatility in some of our key markets, we expect to deliver strong revenue and EBITDA growth in FY18, driven by the solid performance of our brand portfolio and strong commercial plans," AB InBev said. "We remain confident that growth will accelerate in the balance of the year."

Its shares closed 10.6% lower at R1 073.

AB InBev Halves Dividend as Beer Remains Out of Favor - Wall Street Journal

-- zxfutures (@zxyfinancial) October 25, 2018

Bud plight: AB InBev debt detox points to flat future @edwardcropley @aimeedonnellan pic.twitter.com/YIMS5Cnwd5

-- ReutersBreakingviews (@Breakingviews) October 25, 2018

Clicks beats the winter blues with strong earnings. The pharmacy, health and beauty chain has reported a strong rise in earnings despite pressure on consumers and depressed cold and flu medicine sales

Fewer South Africans suffered from colds and flu this past winter - good news for them but not for Clicks.

The pharmacy, health and beauty chain cites depressed medicine sales as one of the several headwinds it encountered in the second half of its financial year. Increasing pressure on consumer spending and near-zero selling price inflation were a couple of the others.

Still, it managed to grow health and beauty sales by 11.7% over the year to end-August due to higher volumes and market share gains in all product categories. Pharmaceutical distributor UPD also performed well, maintaining its operating margin despite the low increase granted on the single exit price (SEP) of medicines this year.

Turnover rose 9.1% to R29.2 billion, with retail sales growing by 10.8% and distribution turnover by 8.4%. Selling price inflation averaged 1.9% for the year compared to 5.3% last year. Operating profit increased by 12.6% to reach the R2 billion mark for the first time, with its operating margin expanding by 20 basis points to 7%. Diluted headline earnings per share increased by 15.1% to 578c and it's raised its total dividend by 18% to 380c per share as it increased its payout ration from 60% to 62%.

Clicks said the retail trading environment would remain challenging with current pressures on consumer spending unlikely to abate in the months. It plans to spend R700 million in the year ahead as it opens 25 to 30 new Clicks stores and 30 to 35 new pharmacies. It will also refurbish 60 stores and upgrade its retail and pharmaceutical supply chain and IT systems to support the expansion.

The group's core health and beauty markets and business model are resilient," Clicks said. "The business continues to trade well in these challenging economic conditions and management is confident of maintaining sales momentum and sustaining volume growth in the year ahead."

Its shares jumped 6.8% to R174 yesterday.

Clicks results good in a really tough environment. In share price at a 28pe health and beauty very good and excellent cash generation. Earnings up 15% dividends up 18%

-- Wayne McCurrie (@WayneMcCurrie) October 25, 2018

Clicks: very good result. Other income only 85% of ebit growth

-- Jse_Prophet (@JseProphet) October 25, 2018

Who's doing what in the African M&A space? DealMakers AFRICA

Maurel & Prom has announced the acquisition of Angola Japan Oil's (AJOCO) 20% interest in two producing and development blocks in shallow waters offshore Angola. The purchase consideration of $80 million will be funded from M&P's existing cash resources. An additional contingent consideration of up to $25 million will be paid subject to oil price performance and resources development.

Moringa, an impact investment fund specialising in agroforestry companies with strong environmental and social impact, has acquired a stake in B-BOVID, a Ghanaian company, by way of a $5 million investment.

Rubis, a France-based international company specialized in the storage, distribution and sale of petroleum, liquefied petroleum gas, food and chemical products, has announced its intention to make a public offer to purchase the remaining shares in KenoKobil. The company currently holds a 24.99% stake in the Kenyan oil and marketing leader.

African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved "7 million investment in Partech Africa Fund. Partech is a Venture capital fund dedicated to investing in tech-enabled, innovative, high growth potential and talented entrepreneurs operating early stage companies and applying relevant technologies to address fundamental market constraints.

DealMakers is SA's M&A publication.www.dealmakers.co.za

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Recession Proof US Shares worth researching. The definition of recession proof Shares is an individual choice. As I primarily invest in Dividend Growth Shares my definition is influenced by these requirements.

I have researched the US market, screening for shares that meet the following criteria:

Low probability that the dividend is at risk

Paid dividends for more than 20 years

Average annual dividend growth is more than 5% for the last 20 years

Growing Dividends (more than 5% last year)

Dividend Yield between 2.0% to 7.5%

Must have generated free cash flow 7 out of the last 10 years

Increased or at least maintained its dividend through the last financial crisis between 2007-09

Current dividend is above its 5-year average yield (could indicate the share is undervalued)

Dividend Pay Out Ratio is less than 75% (Indicating the company is retaining sufficient capital for re-investment)

Average return during the 2007-09 recession was equal to or higher than the S&P 500

After applying this screener, I was left with 38 companies that met my criteria.

I will Further research some of these companies and write about them in the coming weeks.

The following are stocks that I have written about this year and therefore will not discuss them in future articles as part of this series.

Ticker

Name

% Above 5-Year Average Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield

1 Year Dividend Growth

Uninterrupted Dividend Streak (Years)

Recession Dividend

Recession Return %

Annual ROR forecast next 2 years

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

-5.00%

2.60%

5.40%

26

Increased

-27%

8.00%

SJM

J. M. Smucker Company

38.00%

3.30%

11.90%

25

Increased

-27%

24.00%

KMB

Kimberly-Clark Corporation

22.00%

3.80%

5.40%

24

Increased

-34%

18.00%

CVS

CVS Health Corporation

57.00%

2.80%

17.60%

21

Increased

-38%

33.00%

O

Realty Income Corporation

-1.00%

4.60%

5.60%

21

Increased

-43%

9.50%

MMM

3M Company

8.00%

2.80%

6.00%

26

Increased

-54%

14.00%

ITW

Illinois Tool Works

51.00%

3.10%

19.20%

26

Maintained

-55%

22.00%

SNA

Snap-on Incorporated

36.00%

2.20%

16.10%

25

Maintained

-56%

29.00%

During the last Great Recession all these stocks either increased or maintained their dividend. Also, during this time 2007 to 2009 the S&P500 returned -55%. All the stocks discussed in this series would have beaten or at least equalled the S&P500 return. I do believe these shares are worth further research with the view to adding them to a recession proof dividend growth portfolio. Dividend Growth Shares typically maintain or grow their income during market corrections and they have lower volatility than the market.

Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a Registered Financial Planner. The articles I write are based on my own personal research and for my own use and is not to be construed as financial planning advice. At all times readers are urged to exercise caution when investing in any financial instruments, to do their own research

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