Welcome back to India Tariff News and Tracker. I'm your host, and today we're breaking down the latest developments in the US-India trade relationship under the Trump administration.

The situation between Washington and New Delhi has grown increasingly complex. A Trade Compliance Resource Hub tracker shows that India currently faces a 50 percent reciprocal tariff on imports to the United States, implemented in August 2025. This aggressive stance has triggered a tit-for-tat response from New Delhi.

In October, India announced a 30 percent tariff on yellow peas, effective November 1st. Now, just this month, Republican Senators Steve Daines of Montana and Kevin Cramer of North Dakota have sent a letter to President Trump urging him to push India to remove these pulse tariffs. Their states are the top two producers of pulse crops, and they argue American farmers face unfair competitive disadvantages. However, this pressure comes at a critical moment when both nations are supposedly negotiating a broader trade agreement.

According to a Kiel Institute study, Indian exporters have felt the sting of these tariffs acutely. When researchers compared Indian exports to the United States with shipments to Europe and Canada, they found a clear pattern. Export volume to America dropped sharply by up to 24 percent, but crucially, Indian companies didn't lower their prices. They simply shipped less product.

The delayed India-US trade deal remains a major pain point. Despite multiple negotiation rounds, a breakthrough has remained elusive. An analysis from the New Delhi Television reports that without this agreement, India's macroeconomic stability could face threats, including wider trade deficits, a weakening rupee, and potential capital flight.

Meanwhile, India is pursuing alternative trade partnerships. The country is on the cusp of sealing a transformative free trade agreement with the European Union after 18 years of negotiations. According to Economic Times, this would be India's ninth trade agreement in just four years, reflecting New Delhi's accelerated strategy to diversify away from heavy dependence on the American market.

The stakes are high. India represents one of the world's fastest-growing large economies, and a sustained trade conflict with the United States threatens to derail growth momentum. The pulse tariff dispute, while seemingly narrow, symbolizes the broader breakdown in trade negotiations and the willingness of both sides to weaponize agricultural products in their standoff.

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Welcome back to India Tariff News and Tracker. We're diving into the latest developments shaping trade between the United States and India as 2026 unfolds.

The Trump administration's tariff regime continues to intensify its impact on Indian exporters. According to recent trade data, India now faces a combined 51 percent tariff burden on its goods entering the US market. This comprises a 26 percent reciprocal tariff imposed in April 2025, followed by an additional 25 percent punitive tariff implemented in August over India's purchase of Russian oil. Despite these substantial barriers, Indian exports have shown surprising resilience, growing nearly 10 percent year-on-year through December 2025. India's bilateral trade surplus with the United States climbed to 50 billion dollars by October 2025, up from 45.8 billion dollars in 2024.

However, new challenges are emerging on the horizon. Trump senior adviser Peter Navarro has signaled that artificial intelligence data centers could become the next target of US trade action. Navarro expressed concern about American electricity powering AI infrastructure that serves global users, particularly in India and China. He specifically questioned why Americans are subsidizing ChatGPT usage abroad, suggesting strong action from President Trump on this issue. With India accounting for 9 percent of ChatGPT's 5.8 billion monthly visits as of August 2025, this sector faces potential regulatory scrutiny.

Meanwhile, Republican senators from Montana and North Dakota are pressing Trump to make Indian tariffs on American pulses a priority in ongoing trade negotiations. The senators argue that India's 30 percent tariff on yellow peas, effective November 2025, unfairly blocks American producers from accessing the world's largest pulse consumer market. India, however, views these tariffs as domestic safeguards to protect farmers facing falling prices from cheap imports. The tariff applies uniformly to all exporting countries, including Canada. Indian policymakers have prioritized pulse self-sufficiency through the Mission for Aatmanirbharta in Pulses, a six-year initiative with an 11,440 crore rupee budget aimed at raising domestic production significantly.

Negotiations between Indian and American trade officials appear close to completion, with India's Commerce Secretary indicating that most issues are resolved. Yet agriculture remains the most contentious sector, with pulses serving as a critical sticking point. Indian officials have drawn firm red lines around agricultural access, citing food security concerns and the political sensitivity of farmer livelihoods.

The broader context underscores Trump's unpredictable approach to trade policy. His threats of tariffs on the European Union over Greenland disputes signal that economic measures can be weaponized for political leverage, potentially undermining negotiated agreements. For India, this unpredictability demands strategic caution as negotiators work toward finalizing a comprehensive trade deal.

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Welcome to India Tariff News and Tracker, your go-to source for the latest on US trade policies impacting India. Flexport's Global Logistics Update from January 15 reports that demand from the Indian subcontinent to the US has surged in January, despite last August's tariff escalation, with steady freight rates to the East Coast and low rates to the West Coast signaling available capacity.

India's exports to the US are holding strong amid 50% tariffs imposed by President Trump in August—one of the highest rates worldwide—slashing access to our biggest market, which accounts for 19% of total exports. Yet, Moneycontrol analysis reveals electronics leading the charge: laptop exports to the US jumped 1700% over ten months, with India's share rising 0.3 points, while smartphones captured 36% market share. Traditional sectors like wool carpets hit 80% US import dominance, up from 74%, and kitchen linens grew 7% with a 44% share. Even soybean oilcake exports exploded 49,500% post-tariffs, grabbing 8.6% of the US market.

Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal told Economic Times an India-US trade deal is very near, though no deadline is set, with energy imports from the US up 13% to $39 billion in nine months. India's merchandise exports rose 1.9% to $38.51 billion in December, defying tariffs, per Hindustan Times data.

Tensions rise with Trump's January 12 Truth Social post threatening 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran. Moneycontrol confirms the US granted India a conditional sanctions waiver for Chabahar Port until April 26, 2026, after October 2025 guidance from the Treasury, amid Iran's unrest—India's strategic gateway to Central Asia bypassing Pakistan.

Barclays warns India's FTA push with the EU and others won't fully offset the US drag, as 70% of exports face serious threats in textiles, gems, and apparel. MSMEs, hit hardest per CRISIL, seek Budget 2026 relief like enhanced credit and export schemes from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

Stay tuned as talks intensify—resilience meets uncertainty.

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Good afternoon, and welcome back to India Tariff News and Tracker. I'm your host, bringing you the latest developments in US-India trade tensions as we navigate one of the most unpredictable trade environments in recent memory.

Right now, Indian exporters are facing a crushing 50 percent tariff on goods shipped to the United States. This figure breaks down into two components: a 25 percent reciprocal tariff that was announced last year, plus an additional 25 percent penalty specifically tied to India's continued purchases of Russian oil. According to the Economic Times, this makes India one of the countries facing the highest US tariff rates, with experts noting the overall rate could climb even higher.

Today, President Trump has added another layer of complexity to this situation. He announced a blanket 25 percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, effective immediately. The question on everyone's mind in New Delhi is whether this will push Indian tariffs even higher. According to Business Today, if this new Iran tariff applies to India's Iran trade, total duties could potentially reach 75 percent on certain products. However, Indian government sources tell the Economic Times that the Iran tariff is likely to have minimal impact on India's overall trade picture, simply because India-Iran commerce is relatively modest—just 1.7 billion dollars last year, representing only 0.15 percent of India's total trade.

What is exposed is India's rice exports. According to multiple reports, basmati rice alone accounts for over 750 million dollars of India's exports to Iran, representing more than 61 percent of that trade. Business Today reports that this sector faces the most immediate vulnerability under the new announcement.

Meanwhile, negotiations on a broader India-US trade deal remain stalled. According to reporting from India Today, Trump's Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently revealed that India missed critical deadlines in Trump's so-called staircase model of dealmaking, where countries that move quickly get the best terms. Lutnick indicated that India was given a three-Friday deadline to finalize terms with Trump, but Prime Minister Modi did not make the crucial call before that window closed. India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has since pushed back against these characterizations, urging listeners to trust in India's negotiating position.

The broader context remains dire. Automakers in the United States are deferring new orders from Indian component manufacturers, according to reporting from the New Indian Express. The uncertainty created by these tariff threats is rippling through supply chains and investment decisions across multiple sectors.

India faces a diplomatic tightrope. Preserving access to the 27 trillion dollar US market while maintaining long-standing relationships with strategic partners like Iran and Russia presents a challenge with no easy resolution.

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Welcome to India Tariff News and Tracker, where we break down the latest on US tariffs impacting India.

In a major development today, US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor, speaking after assuming charge, announced that the next round of talks on the India-US trade deal will happen tomorrow. According to the Times of India, both sides are actively engaged, with Gor emphasizing that no partner is more essential than India, and highlighting the real friendship between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi. He stressed collaboration on security, counter-terrorism, energy, technology, and more, while noting India's size makes a deal challenging but they're determined to finish it.

Current tariffs stand at 50% on Indian exports to the US, including 25% penal duties for India's Russian crude oil imports, as reported by Times of India and Rediff. Tensions escalated after Trump signed an executive order in August imposing that extra 25%, per Greenwich Time. Adding fuel, a bill proposing up to 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy has Trump's nod and heads to the Senate soon, Moneycontrol warns this could spike US consumer prices on Indian-dominated goods like textiles—where India supplies 59% of US bed linen imports—and packaging, since alternatives are scarce.

Rediff quotes Gor calling 2026 the year of reciprocity, echoing Secretary of State Marco Rubio, amid strains over H1B visas and trade deficits. Yet, Hindustan Times analysis suggests the trade deal remains in play, with drafts exchanged and India tapering Russian oil while boosting US purchases like gold to narrow the deficit. Experts advise India prioritize energy security from diverse sources and not react hastily, as tariffs weaponize geopolitics.

India's also eyeing an EU free trade deal to diversify, reducing US reliance.

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Welcome to India Tariff News and Tracker, listeners, where we break down the latest US-India trade tensions under President Trump.

US tariffs on Indian goods have hit a staggering 50 percent, the highest for any Asian economy, combining a 25 percent reciprocal levy from August with an additional 25 percent punitive duty tied directly to India's purchases of Russian oil, according to Hindustan Times and Outlook Business reports. Trump doubled down on this pressure at a House GOP retreat on Tuesday, claiming Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not happy with him because India is paying these steep tariffs, though he noted India has substantially reduced Russian oil imports. Trump recounted a meeting where Modi allegedly said, Sir, may I see you please? over delays in delivering 68 Apache helicopters India ordered years ago, as covered by India Today and The Tribune.

The stakes are rising fast. Trump warned on Sunday that tariffs could climb even higher if India doesn't curb Russian oil further, per PTI and Upstox updates. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court could rule as soon as Friday on the legality of these sweeping 10 to 50 percent global tariffs imposed under a 1977 emergency powers law, a decision that could reshape Trump's trade agenda and India's export future, Moneycontrol reports. Indian exporters in textiles, leather, gems, and handicrafts are reeling—orders dropped 10 to 12 percent in late 2025, with firms like Farida Group cutting production 20 to 25 percent and laying off workers, Straits Times details. January is make-or-break for securing US summer orders, but six rounds of talks drag on without a deal, despite India's $5 billion exporter aid.

Trump insists he has a very good relationship with Modi, yet mixed signals persist amid negotiations nearing a framework to resolve the 50 percent duties. Exporters are diversifying to UAE, UK, and others, but the US market—nearly one-fifth of India's exports—hangs in the balance.

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Welcome to India Tariff News and Tracker, your essential update on the latest US-India trade tensions. Today, US President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to India over its continued purchases of discounted Russian oil, threatening to hike tariffs even higher if New Delhi doesn't align with Washington's demands.

According to Reuters, as reported by The Economic Times and OilPrice.com, Trump stated aboard Air Force One, "Modi is a good guy. He knew I was not happy, and it was important to make me happy. They do trade, and we can raise tariffs on them very quickly." He specifically called out India's refusal to curb Russian crude imports, which now make up a significant portion of its energy needs, with India relying on imports for over 80% of its oil consumption.

This comes after Trump already imposed steep penalties in 2025. FXStreet reports that import duties on Indian goods were raised to 50%, including a punitive 25% tariff explicitly tied to Russian oil buys, marking the highest rates by many standards as noted in India Today's analysis. The move has reignited trade frictions, weakening the Indian Rupee to near 90.50 against the USD—its two-week low—and prompting Foreign Institutional Investors to offload over Rs. 3 lakh crore in Indian equities last year, with more net selling in early January 2026.

India Today highlights upcoming developments: US Ambassador Sergio Gor's visit to New Delhi on January 7 could deliver clearer messages, amid talks of a potential India-US trade deal by March 2026 that might ease the 50% tariffs. Analysts note Trump's off-the-cuff style but emphasize his track record of swift tariff actions, complicating India's energy diversification efforts.

Dawn echoes the threat, underscoring how these punitive measures challenge bilateral ties despite Trump praising PM Modi as a "good friend." Markets are on edge, with the USD/INR eyeing its all-time high of 91.55 unless tensions ease.

Stay tuned as negotiations unfold—could a deal avert further hikes, or will Russian oil loyalty cost India dearly?

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Welcome to India Tariff News and Tracker, where we break down the latest on US tariffs hitting Indian trade under the Trump administration.

In a bold move signaling America's protectionist turn, the United States imposed a 25 percent tariff on goods from India and nearly 70 other countries, effective August 7, 2025, according to TaxTMI reports. Tensions escalated when rates jumped to 50 percent by late August, the highest among partners, as noted by Nation Thailand's NESDC and Shipping-Now analysis. Trump officials cited India's high tariffs, non-monetary barriers, BRICS ties, and Russian energy purchases as triggers, though an extra penalty was dropped from the final executive order.

India fired back, vowing protective measures while showing resilience. Fortune India highlights that despite the 50 percent extra duties, the US remained India's top export destination through November 2025, with merchandise exports up 2.62 percent to $292 billion and total exports including services rising 5.43 percent to $562 billion. Rupee depreciation cushioned the blow, keeping exporters competitive, per Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal.

Economists offer a nuanced view. Business Today cites top experts explaining Trump's tariffs didn't fully bite—actual rates averaged around 10 percent based on revenue data, far below announced peaks of 27 percent trade-weighted. NESDC forecasts India's growth easing to 6.5 percent in 2026 from 7 percent in 2025, pressured by weaker exports but buoyed by domestic demand and tax reforms.

Looking ahead, NDTV's India Ascends podcast outlines New Delhi's 2026 strategy: balancing a Trump White House with FTAs like those with the UK, Oman, and New Zealand, pushing EU talks, and leveraging PLIs in electronics and pharma. Dr. S. Raja Mohan emphasizes redoing trade ties, integrating into supply chains, and semiconductors to counter disruptions.

India's playbook? Diversify, negotiate on its terms, and turn inward for competitiveness amid tariff wars.

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India has officially taken over the BRICS presidency for 2026, stepping into the role amid escalating US tariffs under President Trump that are reshaping global trade, according to Moneycontrol. This comes as Trump imposes a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods, linked directly to India's purchases of Russian oil, though Firstpost reports that India has substantially reduced those imports, paving the way for tariff reductions in ongoing trade talks.

Listeners, Trump's tariff regime, which kicked off with a 10 percent base on most imports and penalties for trade deficits, has surged America's average tariff rate to 17 percent—the highest in decades—with nations like India, China, Japan, and the EU in the crosshairs, as detailed in Firstpost's analysis of 2026 trade wars. Revenue from these measures hit nearly $30 billion monthly in 2025, but they've strained India's relationship with Washington, eroding trust and stalling bilateral trade negotiations, CNBC-TV18 reports from former Indian ambassadors Rajiv Bhatia, Ashok Sajjanhar, and Ashok Kantha.

Yet, optimism flickers: India's commerce secretary signals hope to conclude talks sooner than later, with Trump himself noting plans to bring down high tariffs on India due to curtailed Russian oil buys. New Delhi is countering by diversifying aggressively—signing free trade pacts with the UK, New Zealand, Oman, and the EFTA bloc, while advancing deals with the EU and Chile—to safeguard strategic autonomy amid this protectionist storm.

As BRICS expands to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the UAE—representing 49 percent of world population and 29 percent of global GDP—India pledges to amplify the Global South's voice, push multilateralism, and promote local currency settlements without aggressive de-dollarization, experts like Prerna Gandhi and Raj Kumar Sharma tell Moneycontrol and NikkeiAsia. But challenges loom: Pakistan eyes BRICS membership and NDB access, while America's G20 presidency may rival India's Global South agenda.

India's playbook for 2026? Measured restraint against Trump's volatility, deeper Indo-Pacific balancing with China in focus, and a push for clearer BRICS expansion rules. Trade talks could yield relief, but businesses brace for supply chain shifts and higher costs if tariffs persist.

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Welcome back to India Tariff News and Tracker. As we close out 2025, India's trade relationship with the United States has been nothing short of turbulent, marked by escalating tariffs that have tested the resilience of Indian exporters in unprecedented ways.

The year began with aggressive tariff action from the Trump administration. By April, India faced a 27 percent reciprocal tariff. But that was just the beginning. In August, the situation intensified dramatically when the US imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods in retaliation for India's continued purchases of Russian oil. This brought the total tariff rate to 50 percent, making India one of the most heavily tariffed nations in Trump's global trade strategy.

According to analyses from trade experts, this 50 percent tariff was designed to impact roughly 87 percent of India's exports to the United States, valued at approximately 66 billion dollars. The hardest-hit sectors included pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and mineral fuels. Yet despite these extraordinary barriers, something unexpected happened. Indian exporters demonstrated remarkable adaptability. Data reveals that after an initial sharp decline in exports when tariffs were lower, Indian shipments to the US actually recovered and rose, even as the full 50 percent tariff took effect. In November 2025 alone, Indian exports reached 400 million dollars, showing that exporter adjustments and temporary coping strategies helped maintain some trade flow.

The political dimension has been equally complex. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the White House in February to negotiate relief, offering tariff reductions on motorcycles and whiskey while pledging to review additional tariffs. India also signaled willingness to lower tariffs on 55 percent of its US imports. However, nine months of formal negotiations have produced no final agreement, though officials report they are close to finalizing a framework trade deal that would address the burden of these reciprocal tariffs.

A significant development came in November when Reliance Industries announced it would cease purchases of Russian oil, a major concession that appeared designed to reduce tension with the Trump administration. Trade talks are scheduled to resume in January with a new US ambassador taking charge, suggesting renewed momentum toward resolution.

As we enter 2026, securing a comprehensive trade agreement has become critical for India's economy. The tariff situation remains precarious, but the demonstrated resilience of Indian exporters suggests the nation's trade relationship with the US, while strained, retains a foundation for negotiation and potential breakthrough.

Thank you for tuning in to India Tariff News and Tracker. Be sure to subscribe for the latest updates on this developing story.

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