The crash in stock markets around the world is probably over. The yen carry trade unwind has capitulated and many markets are oversold. An outright recession is unlikely in the US. Interest rates are on a path lower worldwide that will stimulate growth and drive markets higher again. The dollar index is bearish and a weak dollar is bullish for Emerging market stocks and Bonds.

What factors are giving me confidence that this bull market is not over?

Sometimes people ask me, Rohit, are you sure as if to check if I am very bullish or just bullish or very bearish or just a little. The problem in my model is that I give equal weight to every trade. Equal position size for each stock and so on.

So, in my communication, I am extremely bearish when bearish and extremely bullish when bullish. Stupid, right? Yes, for other people, it's nonsense, and sometimes people may consider me mad and dangerous. However, my model gives me the confidence to take action in that direction because that is how I create conviction. If you are not convinced about being bullish or bearish, how are you going to take the required actions?

A lot of people struggle with action. Staying long despite losing money is common. But making it actionable requires conviction that something has changed. A strong opinion helps in decision-making, which is how it works for me. Writing about it every day is a commitment that I have made with Indiacharts Insiders that helps in the process of doing the work needed to change. You may not like it, and from the outside, it looks like I am a madman, but from the inside, it results in a decision-making process. Welcome to behavioural finance.

The VIX has seen the biggest decline ahead of a National Election in recent history. Markets have rallied in anticipation of a major win by the existing power at the centre. With so much going on in global markets, from macro to geopolitics, what should we expect from the stock market?

The Mania in the Indian stock market is real and visible. Investors should be aware of what type of market they are participating in and adjust risk accordingly. I continue to wait to see the air come out of this bubble and I think it is already deflating.

The mad frenzy for the Indian stock market now spreads from retail investors to college students and international investors. The flow of funds creates the best of fundamentals and the highest valuations in a long time. This brings risks to long-term returns that are not being considered. The frenzy may be creating a bubble that requires a one-time valuation correction.

It is easier said than done to ignore every crisis, but we have to weigh the odds and manage risk along the way. This is a game of liquidity that the FED started and every time it appears like the end game is here something changes.

After a nice rally from an oversold condition, it is time to think if Nifty is hitting a top and if world markets are done with expecting a rate-cutting cycle without an economic slowdown. How will markets respond to the opposing forces of inflation and deflation.

The stock market is starting to pay attention to bond yields and currency markets. The risk of a slowdown in economic activity due to high-interest rates is real. It also impacts valuations. How to navigate these markets? Listen to Rohit Srivastava

Bear Market Or Correction For Nifty by Rohit Srivastava